Bitcoin Whales Have Awakened: Will This Momentum Catalyze a Sustainable Rally?

Bitcoin's largest holders, whales controlling 10+ BTC ($821K+), have surged by 132 wallets overnight, marking the steepest growth since February.

President Trump's announcement of a pause on tariffs from China brought some respite to market fears on Thursday, resulting in a 132-wallet surge in Bitcoin’s largest holders, those controlling 10+ BTC ($821K+), according to crypto analytics firm Santiment.

This marks the steepest growth in stitiBitcoin whales’ tier in February following the last significant rally.

However, while Santiment attributes this to renewed institutional confidence in BTC, skeptics may point out that the timing aligns more closely with Trump’s statement, delivered around 3:30 AM ET.

This sparks speculation whether it’s genuine accumulation or short-term positioning in response to the newsflow.

"The 10+ BTC tier has been in a declining trend for the past few weeks. Historically, we've seen that rapid accumulation phases in this tier often precede bullish phases in Bitcoin’s price. For instance, earlier this year, we witnessed a substantial increase in this tier during the February rally. These large investors, also known as Bitcoin whales, are likely capitalizing on the recent market dip induced by the tariff news. Their significant re-entry suggests deep-seated long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s potential. Nonetheless, the timing, closely aligned with the political announcement, raises questions about the sustainability of this accumulation phase. Is it a genuine long-term strategy or a short-term positioning move in reaction to the tariff news?" elaborated Santiment.

While Trump’s tariff pause may have temporarily eased some institutional FUD, ultimately, Bitcoin’s fate will still be decided by broader economic trends. Bitcoin whale activity alone cannot overrule macro pressures like inflation or the upcoming Fed policy decisions.

It’s worth noting that this surge in large holders isn’t yet reflected in commensurately large price gains. BTC has been struggling to break out of a key resistance level, suggesting that despite whales’ optimism, retail traders might not be participating as actively. For a true bull run to unfold, we'll need to see both forces converge.

Let’s take a look at the technical analysis of the 15-minute chart of BTC/USDT.

The BTC/USDT 15-minute chart is currently showing signs of consolidation just below the overhead resistance zone, which is located in the range of $83,800 to $84,200. The price is currently testing the lower levels of this resistance band, and it’s also encountering resistance at the psychological round number of $83,000. On the other hand, the price is finding support at the $79,000 level, which is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A deeper level of support could be seen at $75,000, which is the low that was reached on March 27.

As the price is showing some hesitation as it approaches the resistance, this could indicate that a breakout or a rejection at this point could decide the next move for the market. If the bulls can push the price through the resistance, then we could see a continuation of the recent rally. However, if the sellers manage to defend this level, then the price could pull back and retest the lower levels of support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 46.55, which is placing it in neutral territory. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 70 signaling overbought conditions and readings below 30 suggesting oversold conditions.

Earlier today, the RSI signaled overbought and oversold conditions, which aligned well with the price movements as it reversed from these extremes. For instance, when the RSI hit 30 on March 27, the price bounced from the low and rallied. Similarly, when the RSI reached 70 on April 9, the price stalled and pulled back from the high. This suggests that the RSI can be a useful indicator for identifying short-term price trends.

MACD is currently showing a past "Death Cross," which occurred when the 12-EMA crossed below the 26-EMA, followed by a decline in momentum, indicated by the MACD Line (12-EMA - 26-EMA) moving below the zero line and the MACD Histogram (12-EMA - 26-EMA) decreasing from its peak.

Although the MACD Histogram has narrowed in recent candlesticks, the MACD Lines are still placed below the zero line, which suggests that the bullish momentum is still weak or that the consolidation phase might continue.

In the broader picture, the price action is clearly showing a range-bound pattern with no complete breakout above the resistance yet.

For traders who prefer to trade in the direction of the breakout, they might be interested in looking for a candle that closes completely above the $83,800 to $84,2