比特币面临严重的不确定性，因为美国与加拿大之间的贸易战可能会破坏采矿业务

比特币面临严重的不确定性，因为美国和加拿大之间的贸易战可能破坏采矿业务。安大略省总理道格·福特（Doug Ford）警告说，加拿大可能会对美国北部州的电力出口征收报复性关税，甚至完全削减了权力流，这是对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）提出的关税的回应。

The trade war between the US and Canada could have far-reaching consequences, including disrupting Bitcoin mining operations, according to industry observers.

据行业观察家称，美国和加拿大之间的贸易战可能会带来深远的后果，包括破坏比特币采矿业务。

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened to strike back at President Donald Trump’s tariffs with retaliatory tariffs on electricity exports to northern US states or by cutting the flow of power.

安大略省总理道格·福特（Doug Ford）扬言要对唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税，并以报复性关税对向美国北部州的电力出口或减少权力流程。

"If he wants to destroy our families, I’m going after absolutely everything,” Ford stated in a video statement.

福特在视频声明中说：“如果他想摧毁我们的家人，我将绝对去追求一切。”

Up to 1.5 million customers in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota could be affected by the move.

在纽约，密歇根州和明尼苏达州，多达150万客户可能会受到此举的影响。

If Ontario were to curtail or halt electricity exports, it would have a direct impact on Bitcoin miners who have set up shop in the US Northeast to take advantage of low-cost energy.

如果安大略省要减少或停止电力出口，它将直接影响在美国东北部开设商店的比特币矿工，以利用低成本的能源。

According to Michael Maloney, Founder & CEO of Incyt, more than 300 megawatts (and possibly up to 500 MW) of Bitcoin mining capacity is located along the New York–Canada border. This represents between 2.5% and 5% of global hashrate.

根据Incyt的创始人兼首席执行官Michael Maloney的说法，比特币采矿能力超过300兆瓦（甚至最高500兆瓦）位于纽约 - 加拿大边境。这占全球桥梁的2.5％至5％。

“This news could be a huge impact to $BTC and #Bitcoin as a whole,” Maloney wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

马洛尼在X上的一篇文章中写道：“这一消息对$ btc和#bitcoin的整体影响可能会产生巨大影响。”

Miners in the U.S. Northeast are currently enjoying energy prices as low as $0.037 per kWh in some areas, which has enabled large-scale Bitcoin mining operations to thrive. However, these prices are already set to rise by about 30% in "day-ahead" projections, putting strain on miners who rely on cheap electricity.

美国东北部的矿工目前在某些地区享有每千瓦时0.037美元的能源价格，这使大规模的比特币采矿业务蓬勃发展。但是，这些价格已经将在“批准”预测中上涨约30％，这给依靠廉价电力的矿工带来了压力。

If up to 1.5 million electricity users in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota lose Canadian power, they will turn to local grids. Considering winter and the cold, let’s estimate 1,000 kW/Hr a month per household. This translates to a shortfall of demand of 2,000 MW/Hr.

如果在纽约，密歇根州和明尼苏达州最多150万电力用户失去加拿大电力，他们将转向当地网格。考虑到冬季和寒冷，让我们每户一个月估计1,000 kW/hr。这意味着2,000兆瓦/小时的需求短缺。

New York State's power generation stands at about 17 GW currently, meaning it would need to add approximately 2 GW (a 12% increase) to meet demand. This would push prices higher.

纽约州的发电公司目前约为17 gw，这意味着它需要增加大约2吉瓦（增长12％）才能满足需求。这将提高价格。

"This will spike pricing of power load by 40%-70%, raising the price to $0.075 kW/Hr. Demand pricing would surge significantly, likely pushing all-in costs north of $0.12 kW/Hr. The 1.5M impacted people will see power costs 4-5x greater than usual. This will devastate them," explained Maloney.

“这将使电力负载的定价提高40％-70％，将价格提高到0.075 kW/hr。需求价格将大大增加，可能会增加全部成本0.12 kW/hr的全部成本。受影响的150万卢比的人会看到电力成本比平常大4-5x。这将使他们大。”

The key concern is whether the current fleet of Bitcoin mining machines could remain profitable at higher energy prices.

关键问题是，目前的比特币采矿机器机器是否可以以较高的能源价格保持盈利。

According to AsicMinerValue.com, only devices with efficiencies of better than 16.5 j/TH might remain profitable at an energy price of $0.125 kW/Hr.

根据Asicminervalue.com的数据，只有效率高于16.5 j/t的设备，其能源价格可能仍能以0.125 kW/hr的价格盈利。

However, at press time, the new generation of Asic miners from Bitmain, MicroBT, and WhatsMiner are not yet efficient enough to maintain profitability at such a high price.

但是，在发稿时，来自Bitmain，Microbt和Whats -Mininer的新一代ASIC矿工尚未足够高效，无法以如此高的价格保持盈利能力。

Maloney further noted that while miners might find short-term relief through demand-response programs, the costs and tariffs would likely make such programs unsustainable in the long run.

马洛尼进一步指出，尽管矿工可能会通过需求响应计划找到短期的缓解，但从长远来看，成本和关税可能会使此类计划无法实现。

If facilities shut down or scale back, the immediate outcome could be a measurable drop in Bitcoin’s hashrate as major mining operations in Texas and other states might also face higher tariffs.

如果设施关闭或缩小规模，则直接结果可能是比特币的哈希底层的可测量下降，因为德克萨斯州和其他州的主要采矿业务也可能面临更高的关税。

The stranded hashrate would likely flow to other jurisdictions, including Canada and China, where operators could take advantage of newly available mining hardware and cheaper electricity.

滞留的哈希拉特可能会流向包括加拿大和中国在内的其他司法管辖区，在那里运营商可以利用新近可用的采矿硬件和便宜的电力。

"Trade wars (including tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and manipulation of utilities services) are bad for business. And make no doubt, Bitcoin mining is BIG BUSINESS," concluded Maloney.

马洛尼总结说：“贸易战（包括关税，报复性关税和对公用事业服务的操纵）对企业不利。毫无疑问，比特币采矿是大生意。”