比特幣面臨嚴重的不確定性，因為美國與加拿大之間的貿易戰可能會破壞採礦業務

比特幣面臨嚴重的不確定性，因為美國和加拿大之間的貿易戰可能破壞採礦業務。安大略省總理道格·福特（Doug Ford）警告說，加拿大可能會對美國北部州的電力出口徵收報復性關稅，甚至完全削減了權力流，這是對美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）提出的關稅的回應。

The trade war between the US and Canada could have far-reaching consequences, including disrupting Bitcoin mining operations, according to industry observers.

據行業觀察家稱，美國和加拿大之間的貿易戰可能會帶來深遠的後果，包括破壞比特幣採礦業務。

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened to strike back at President Donald Trump’s tariffs with retaliatory tariffs on electricity exports to northern US states or by cutting the flow of power.

安大略省總理道格·福特（Doug Ford）揚言要對唐納德·特朗普總統的關稅，並以報復性關稅對向美國北部州的電力出口或減少權力流程。

"If he wants to destroy our families, I’m going after absolutely everything,” Ford stated in a video statement.

福特在視頻聲明中說：“如果他想摧毀我們的家人，我將絕對去追求一切。”

Up to 1.5 million customers in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota could be affected by the move.

在紐約，密歇根州和明尼蘇達州，多達150萬客戶可能會受到此舉的影響。

If Ontario were to curtail or halt electricity exports, it would have a direct impact on Bitcoin miners who have set up shop in the US Northeast to take advantage of low-cost energy.

如果安大略省要減少或停止電力出口，它將直接影響在美國東北部開設商店的比特幣礦工，以利用低成本的能源。

According to Michael Maloney, Founder & CEO of Incyt, more than 300 megawatts (and possibly up to 500 MW) of Bitcoin mining capacity is located along the New York–Canada border. This represents between 2.5% and 5% of global hashrate.

根據Incyt的創始人兼首席執行官Michael Maloney的說法，比特幣採礦能力超過300兆瓦（甚至最高500兆瓦）位於紐約 - 加拿大邊境。這佔全球橋樑的2.5％至5％。

“This news could be a huge impact to $BTC and #Bitcoin as a whole,” Maloney wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

馬洛尼在X上的一篇文章中寫道：“這一消息對$ btc和#bitcoin的整體影響可能會產生巨大影響。”

Miners in the U.S. Northeast are currently enjoying energy prices as low as $0.037 per kWh in some areas, which has enabled large-scale Bitcoin mining operations to thrive. However, these prices are already set to rise by about 30% in "day-ahead" projections, putting strain on miners who rely on cheap electricity.

美國東北部的礦工目前在某些地區享有每千瓦時0.037美元的能源價格，這使大規模的比特幣採礦業務蓬勃發展。但是，這些價格已經將在“批准”預測中上漲約30％，這給依靠廉價電力的礦工帶來了壓力。

If up to 1.5 million electricity users in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota lose Canadian power, they will turn to local grids. Considering winter and the cold, let’s estimate 1,000 kW/Hr a month per household. This translates to a shortfall of demand of 2,000 MW/Hr.

如果在紐約，密歇根州和明尼蘇達州最多150萬電力用戶失去加拿大電力，他們將轉向當地網格。考慮到冬季和寒冷，讓我們每戶一個月估計1,000 kW/hr。這意味著2,000兆瓦/小時的需求短缺。

New York State's power generation stands at about 17 GW currently, meaning it would need to add approximately 2 GW (a 12% increase) to meet demand. This would push prices higher.

紐約州的發電公司目前約為17 gw，這意味著它需要增加大約2吉瓦（增長12％）才能滿足需求。這將提高價格。

"This will spike pricing of power load by 40%-70%, raising the price to $0.075 kW/Hr. Demand pricing would surge significantly, likely pushing all-in costs north of $0.12 kW/Hr. The 1.5M impacted people will see power costs 4-5x greater than usual. This will devastate them," explained Maloney.

“這將使電力負載的定價提高40％-70％，將價格提高到0.075 kW/hr。需求價格將大大增加，可能會增加全部成本0.12 kW/hr的全部成本。受影響的150萬盧比的人會看到電力成本比平常大4-5x。這將使他們大。”

The key concern is whether the current fleet of Bitcoin mining machines could remain profitable at higher energy prices.

關鍵問題是，目前的比特幣採礦機器機器是否可以以較高的能源價格保持盈利。

According to AsicMinerValue.com, only devices with efficiencies of better than 16.5 j/TH might remain profitable at an energy price of $0.125 kW/Hr.

根據Asicminervalue.com的數據，只有效率高於16.5 j/t的設備，其能源價格可能仍能以0.125 kW/hr的價格盈利。

However, at press time, the new generation of Asic miners from Bitmain, MicroBT, and WhatsMiner are not yet efficient enough to maintain profitability at such a high price.

但是，在發稿時，來自Bitmain，Microbt和Whats -Mininer的新一代ASIC礦工尚未足夠高效，無法以如此高的價格保持盈利能力。

Maloney further noted that while miners might find short-term relief through demand-response programs, the costs and tariffs would likely make such programs unsustainable in the long run.

馬洛尼進一步指出，儘管礦工可能會通過需求響應計劃找到短期的緩解，但從長遠來看，成本和關稅可能會使此類計劃無法實現。

If facilities shut down or scale back, the immediate outcome could be a measurable drop in Bitcoin’s hashrate as major mining operations in Texas and other states might also face higher tariffs.

如果設施關閉或縮小規模，則直接結果可能是比特幣的哈希底層的可測量下降，因為德克薩斯州和其他州的主要採礦業務也可能面臨更高的關稅。

The stranded hashrate would likely flow to other jurisdictions, including Canada and China, where operators could take advantage of newly available mining hardware and cheaper electricity.

滯留的哈希拉特可能會流向包括加拿大和中國在內的其他司法管轄區，在那裡運營商可以利用新近可用的採礦硬件和便宜的電力。

"Trade wars (including tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and manipulation of utilities services) are bad for business. And make no doubt, Bitcoin mining is BIG BUSINESS," concluded Maloney.

馬洛尼總結說：“貿易戰（包括關稅，報復性關稅和對公用事業服務的操縱）對企業不利。毫無疑問，比特幣採礦是大生意。”