比特币长期持有者逐渐减少其余额，目前持有 1245 万比特币，为 2022 年 7 月以来的最低水平

从历史上看，当长期持有者余额下降时，比特币价格就会很高。

Bitcoin’s long-term holders, defined as those who have held their BTC for over a year, are slowly reducing their balances. According to data from IntoTheBlock, as of Feb. 20, these holders now have 12.45 million BTC, which marks the lowest level since July 2022.

比特币的长期持有者，即持有比特币一年以上的人，正在慢慢减少其余额。根据 IntoTheBlock 的数据，截至 2 月 20 日，这些持有者目前拥有 1245 万 BTC，这是自 2022 年 7 月以来的最低水平。

However, it's important to note that this drop in long-term holder balances is less severe compared to previous cycles. For instance, in this cycle, long-term holder balances are down by 9.8%. This compares to a 15% reduction in 2021 and a 26% dip in 2017.

然而，值得注意的是，与之前的周期相比，长期持有者余额的下降幅度没有那么严重。例如，在本周期中，长期持有者余额下降了 9.8%。相比之下，2021 年下降 15%，2017 年下降 26%。

Bitcoin long-term holders are gradually reducing their balances, now holding 12.45 million BTC—the lowest level since July 2022.

比特币长期持有者正在逐渐减少其余额，目前持有 1245 万比特币，这是自 2022 年 7 月以来的最低水平。

So far, this decline is less severe than in past cycles. Long-term holder balances have fallen by 9.8% this cycle, compared to 15% in 2021 and 26% in… pic.twitter.com/eA5Cckrgs4

到目前为止，这种下降没有过去周期那么严重。本周期长期持有者余额下降了 9.8%，而 2021 年为 15%，2021 年为 26%…… pic.twitter.com/eA5Cckrgs4

Long-Term Holder Balances and Bitcoin Price

长期持有者余额和比特币价格

Historically, periods of declining long-term holder balances have coincided with higher Bitcoin prices. For example, in the 2018 market cycle, as Bitcoin's price dropped from a peak of nearly $20,000, the balances of long-term holders decreased from 9 million BTC to below 8 million BTC.

从历史上看，长期持有者余额下降的时期与比特币价格上涨同时发生。例如，在2018年的市场周期中，随着比特币价格从近2万美元的峰值回落，长期持有者的余额从900万BTC减少到800万BTC以下。

Similarly, during the 2021 bull market, as Bitcoin reached record highs of $60,000 to $65,000, these balances also declined.

同样，在 2021 年牛市期间，随着比特币达到 60,000 美元至 65,000 美元的历史高位，这些余额也有所下降。

However, these periods of decline in long-term holder balances are typically not sustained for extended durations. Once the market turns bearish, we often observe a reversal in this trend.

然而，长期持有者余额的下降时期通常不会持续很长时间。一旦市场转为看跌，我们经常会观察到这种趋势的逆转。

As Bitcoin’s price largely remained below $80,000 in 2024, long-term holders began buying again, and their balances increased to nearly 15 million BTC.

由于2024年比特币价格基本保持在8万美元以下，长期持有者开始再次购买，其余额增加至近1500万比特币。

Read also: BTC Near $100K: Institutions Buy In, Yet Long-Term Holders Cash Out

另请阅读：BTC 接近 10 万美元：机构买入，但长期持有者套现

Holder Behavior

持有者行为

It's also worth considering the behavior of different holder categories in bull and bear markets.

牛市和熊市中不同持有者类别的行为也值得考虑。

During bull markets, shorter-termホルダー (less than 1 month) and medium-term holders (1–12 months) tend to be highly active, aiming to capitalize on price increases and engaging in risk-seeking trades. This was evident in 2018, 2021, and the current 2024 surge.

在牛市期间，短期持有者（少于1个月）和中期持有者（1-12个月）往往非常活跃，旨在利用价格上涨并进行风险规避交易。这在 2018 年、2021 年以及当前 2024 年的激增中表现得非常明显。

In contrast, long-term holders (holding for over a year) usually remain stable, which highlights their strength during price fluctuations.

相比之下，长期持有者（持有一年以上）通常保持稳定，这凸显了他们在价格波动时的实力。

After periods of price corrections, such as those witnessed in late 2018 and mid-2022, the activity among shorter and medium-term holders tends to decline. This is when long-term holders begin accumulating again.

经过一段时间的价格调整（例如 2018 年末和 2022 年中期的价格调整）后，短期和中期持有者的活动往往会下降。这是长期持有者再次开始增持的时候。

Exchange Flows Highlight Market Sentiment

外汇流量凸显市场情绪

Another interesting aspect to consider is the net flows on Bitcoin spot exchanges, which can provide further insight into market dynamics.

另一个值得考虑的有趣方面是比特币现货交易所的净流量，它可以提供对市场动态的进一步洞察。

Throughout the period, high outflows (Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges) corresponded with price increases, especially during the rally toward $100,000 in November.

在此期间，大量资金外流（比特币从交易所撤出）与价格上涨相对应，特别是在 11 月份涨至 10 万美元期间。

However, during periods of price corrections, such as in late November when Bitcoin dropped back to $60,000, we observed a significant increase in inflows. This aligns with increased selling pressure or traders taking profits during bearish phases.

然而，在价格调整期间，例如 11 月底，当比特币回落至 60,000 美元时，我们观察到资金流入大幅增加。这与卖压增加或交易者在看跌阶段获利了结相一致。

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