比特幣長期持有者逐漸減少其餘額，目前持有 1,245 萬比特幣，為 2022 年 7 月以來的最低水平

從歷史上看，當長期持有者餘額下降時，比特幣價格就會很高。

Bitcoin’s long-term holders, defined as those who have held their BTC for over a year, are slowly reducing their balances. According to data from IntoTheBlock, as of Feb. 20, these holders now have 12.45 million BTC, which marks the lowest level since July 2022.

比特幣的長期持有者，也就是持有比特幣一年以上的人，正在慢慢減少其餘額。根據 IntoTheBlock 的數據，截至 2 月 20 日，這些持有者目前擁有 1,245 萬 BTC，這是自 2022 年 7 月以來的最低水準。

However, it's important to note that this drop in long-term holder balances is less severe compared to previous cycles. For instance, in this cycle, long-term holder balances are down by 9.8%. This compares to a 15% reduction in 2021 and a 26% dip in 2017.

然而，值得注意的是，與先前的周期相比，長期持有者餘額的下降幅度沒有那麼嚴重。例如，在本週期中，長期持有者餘額下降了 9.8%。相較之下，2021 年下降 15%，2017 年下降 26%。

Bitcoin long-term holders are gradually reducing their balances, now holding 12.45 million BTC—the lowest level since July 2022.

比特幣長期持有者正在逐漸減少其餘額，目前持有 1,245 萬比特幣，這是自 2022 年 7 月以來的最低水準。

So far, this decline is less severe than in past cycles. Long-term holder balances have fallen by 9.8% this cycle, compared to 15% in 2021 and 26% in… pic.twitter.com/eA5Cckrgs4

到目前為止，這種下降沒有過去週期那麼嚴重。本週期長期持有者餘額下降了 9.8%，而 2021 年為 15%，2021 年為 26%… pic.twitter.com/eA5Cckrgs4

Long-Term Holder Balances and Bitcoin Price

長期持有者餘額和比特幣價格

Historically, periods of declining long-term holder balances have coincided with higher Bitcoin prices. For example, in the 2018 market cycle, as Bitcoin's price dropped from a peak of nearly $20,000, the balances of long-term holders decreased from 9 million BTC to below 8 million BTC.

從歷史上看，長期持有者餘額下降的時期與比特幣價格上漲同時發生。例如，在2018年的市場週期中，隨著比特幣價格從近2萬美元的高峰迴落，長期持有者的餘額從900萬BTC減少到800萬BTC以下。

Similarly, during the 2021 bull market, as Bitcoin reached record highs of $60,000 to $65,000, these balances also declined.

同樣，在 2021 年多頭期間，隨著比特幣達到 60,000 美元至 65,000 美元的歷史高位，這些餘額也有所下降。

However, these periods of decline in long-term holder balances are typically not sustained for extended durations. Once the market turns bearish, we often observe a reversal in this trend.

然而，長期持有者餘額的下降期間通常不會持續很長時間。一旦市場轉為看跌，我們經常會觀察到這種趨勢的逆轉。

As Bitcoin’s price largely remained below $80,000 in 2024, long-term holders began buying again, and their balances increased to nearly 15 million BTC.

由於2024年比特幣價格基本上維持在8萬美元以下，長期持有者開始再次購買，其餘額增加至近1500萬比特幣。

Read also: BTC Near $100K: Institutions Buy In, Yet Long-Term Holders Cash Out

另請閱讀：BTC 接近 10 萬美元：機構買入，但長期持有者套現

Holder Behavior

持有者行為

It's also worth considering the behavior of different holder categories in bull and bear markets.

牛市和熊市中不同持有者類別的行為也值得考慮。

During bull markets, shorter-termホルダー (less than 1 month) and medium-term holders (1–12 months) tend to be highly active, aiming to capitalize on price increases and engaging in risk-seeking trades. This was evident in 2018, 2021, and the current 2024 surge.

在多頭期間，短期持有者（少於1個月）和中期持有者（1-12個月）往往非常活躍，旨在利用價格上漲並進行風險規避交易。這在 2018 年、2021 年以及目前 2024 年的激增中表現得非常明顯。

In contrast, long-term holders (holding for over a year) usually remain stable, which highlights their strength during price fluctuations.

相比之下，長期持有者（持有一年以上）通常保持穩定，這凸顯了他們在價格波動時的實力。

After periods of price corrections, such as those witnessed in late 2018 and mid-2022, the activity among shorter and medium-term holders tends to decline. This is when long-term holders begin accumulating again.

經過一段時間的價格調整（例如 2018 年末和 2022 年中期的價格調整）後，短期和中期持有者的活動往往會下降。這是長期持有者再次開始增持的時候。

Exchange Flows Highlight Market Sentiment

外匯流量凸顯市場情緒

Another interesting aspect to consider is the net flows on Bitcoin spot exchanges, which can provide further insight into market dynamics.

另一個值得考慮的有趣方面是比特幣現貨交易所的淨流量，它可以提供對市場動態的進一步洞察。

Throughout the period, high outflows (Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges) corresponded with price increases, especially during the rally toward $100,000 in November.

在此期間，大量資金外流（比特幣從交易所撤出）與價格上漲相對應，特別是在 11 月漲至 10 萬美元期間。

However, during periods of price corrections, such as in late November when Bitcoin dropped back to $60,000, we observed a significant increase in inflows. This aligns with increased selling pressure or traders taking profits during bearish phases.

然而，在價格調整期間，例如 11 月底，當比特幣回落至 6 萬美元時，我們觀察到資金流入大幅增加。這與賣壓增加或交易者在看跌階段獲利了結一致。

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