比特币飙升：减半、ETF 和市场信心推动上涨

在经济弹性、现货比特币 ETF 和大额补贴减半的推动下，比特币价格在过去一年飙升了 140%。减半事件每四年发生一次，使新铸造的比特币数量减少 50%，导致过去的价格飙升。 2024 年 4 月的最新减半进一步减少了供应，可能导致需求增加和价格上涨。

Bitcoin's Ascent: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Factors Propelling Its Surge

比特币的崛起：全面分析推动其飙升的因素

Introduction

介绍

Over the past year, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited remarkable resilience, soaring by 140% amidst global economic volatility. This surge has been driven by a confluence of factors, including heightened investor confidence, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the pivotal halving of Bitcoin block subsidies.

过去一年，比特币（BTC）表现出了非凡的韧性，在全球经济波动的情况下飙升了140%。这一激增是由多种因素共同推动的，包括投资者信心增强、现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）以及比特币区块补贴的关键减半。

Bitcoin's Limited Supply and Halving Events

比特币的供应有限和减半事件

Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million coins, a finite limit enforced by the periodic halving of block subsidies. These halvings occur every 210,000 blocks mined, which translates to approximately every four years. During these events, the block subsidy, representing the amount of newly minted Bitcoin earned by miners, is reduced by 50%.

比特币的供应量上限为 2100 万枚，这是通过定期减半区块补贴来实施的有限限制。每开采 210,000 个区块就会减半一次，大约每四年一次。在这些事件期间，代表矿工赚取的新铸造比特币数量的区块补贴减少了 50%。

Three halving events have transpired thus far, in 2012, 2016, and 2020. The latest halving took place on April 19, 2024, slashing the block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This reduction in supply is widely anticipated to have a positive impact on Bitcoin's price, as it naturally curbs selling pressure.

迄今为止，已发生三次减半事件，分别是2012年、2016年和2020年。最近一次减半发生在2024年4月19日，将区块补贴从6.25 BTC削减至3.125 BTC。人们普遍预计，供应量的减少将对比特币的价格产生积极影响，因为它自然会抑制抛售压力。

Historical Price Appreciation after Halvings

减半后的历史价格升值

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited significant price appreciation in the four-year period following halving events. Data from Morgan Stanley and YCharts reveals that Bitcoin has returned an average of 2,391% and a median of 1,263% between past halving events. This surge can be attributed to the reduced supply of newly minted Bitcoin, which decreases the availability of coins for sale.

从历史上看，比特币在减半事件后的四年内表现出显着的价格上涨。摩根士丹利和 YCharts 的数据显示，在过去的减半事件中，比特币的平均回报率为 2,391%，中位数为 1,263%。这种激增可归因于新铸造的比特币供应减少，从而减少了可供出售的比特币的可用性。

While history suggests that Bitcoin's value is poised to rise in the coming years, it's important to note that the gains have become less pronounced with each subsequent halving. This implies that while Bitcoin's value is likely to appreciate, the implied upside potential is less than 619%.

虽然历史表明比特币的价值将在未来几年上涨，但值得注意的是，随着随后的每次减半，涨幅变得不那么明显。这意味着虽然比特币的价值可能会升值，但隐含的上涨潜力低于 619%。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Increased Demand

现货比特币 ETF 和需求增加

In addition to the halving event, the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has ignited optimism among investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide direct exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities and fees associated with cryptocurrency exchanges. This accessibility could unlock enormous demand for Bitcoin in the coming years.

除了减半事件之外，近期比特币现货ETF的获批也点燃了投资者的乐观情绪。现货比特币 ETF 提供直接投资比特币的机会，无需支付与加密货币交易相关的复杂性和费用。这种可访问性可能会在未来几年释放对比特币的巨大需求。

Analysts believe that ETF inflows could attract significant retail and institutional capital to the market. Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered Bank estimates that ETF inflows could push Bitcoin's price to $250,000 by 2025. Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors predicts that this catalyst could propel Bitcoin to $500,000 within five years.

分析师认为，ETF 的流入可能会吸引大量散户和机构资本进入市场。渣打银行的杰夫·肯德里克 (Geoff Kendrick) 估计，到 2025 年，ETF 流入可能会将比特币的价格推至 25 万美元。 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的汤姆·李 (Tom Lee) 预测，这种催化剂可能会在五年内将比特币推至 50 万美元。

Conclusion

结论

The recent halving of Bitcoin block subsidies and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs have set the stage for potential price appreciation in the coming years. While price targets should not be the primary focus, these developments suggest that Bitcoin's upward trajectory is likely to continue. Investors with a high tolerance for risk and a long-term perspective should consider allocating a small portion of their portfolio to Bitcoin.

最近比特币区块补贴减半以及现货比特币 ETF 的批准为未来几年潜在的价格上涨奠定了基础。虽然价格目标不应成为主要关注点，但这些事态发展表明比特币的上涨轨迹可能会持续下去。具有较高风险承受能力和长远眼光的投资者应该考虑将其投资组合的一小部分分配给比特币。

It's crucial to exercise caution and conduct thorough research before investing in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. The market can be volatile, and the value of Bitcoin can fluctuate significantly. Investors should only invest what they can afford to lose and should diversify their investments to mitigate risk.

在投资比特币或任何其他加密货币之前，务必谨慎行事并进行彻底的研究。市场可能会波动，比特币的价值可能会大幅波动。投资者应该只投资他们可以承受的损失，并应该分散投资以降低风险。