比特币超级周期：分析师预测 BTC 可能达到 40 万美元

分析师对比特币的未来越来越乐观。 Santiment 的数据表明，当前的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑 (FUD) 气氛实际上可能有助于推高价格。

Bitcoin (BTC) price showed signs of recovery on Monday after facing significant selling pressure last week. The world’s largest cryptocurrency registered a 1.95% decline last week, largely due to a buildup in short positions on major exchanges.

比特币（BTC）价格在上周面临巨大抛售压力后，周一显示出复苏迹象。全球最大的加密货币上周下跌 1.95%，主要是由于主要交易所空头头寸的增加。

However, BTC price recovered 1.50% in 24 hours, showing resilience against the selling pressure. This upward momentum comes despite the recent surge in shorting activity on Binance and BitMEX, which has been escalating since Saturday.

然而，BTC 价格在 24 小时内回升 1.50%，显示出抵御抛售压力的韧性。尽管最近币安和 BitMEX 的做空活动激增（自周六以来一直在升级），但这种上升势头仍然存在。

According to data from Santiment, fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the crypto market could be a positive indicator for Bitcoin’s price. The crypto market intelligence platform highlighted a trend where an increase in FUD tends to coincide with an increase in the cryptocurrency’s price.

根据 Santiment 的数据，加密市场中的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑（FUD）可能是比特币价格的积极指标。加密货币市场情报平台强调了一种趋势，即 FUD 的增加往往与加密货币价格的上涨同时发生。

Meanwhile, some analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s future trajectory. According to Kyle Chasse, an analyst, the next market cycle could see Bitcoin trading at $400,000. While his prediction lacks substantial evidence, it aligns with the price action observed following previous halvings and increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin.

与此同时，一些分析师对比特币的未来轨迹持乐观态度。分析师 Kyle Chasse 表示，下一个市场周期比特币交易价格可能会达到 40 万美元。虽然他的预测缺乏实质性证据，但它与之前减半后观察到的价格走势以及机构对比特币兴趣的增加相一致。

IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT A SUPER CYCLE IS, YOU'RE GOING TO FIND OUT REAL SOON. pic.twitter.com/Gu84eK1mVZ

如果您不知道什么是超级循环，那么您很快就会明白。 pic.twitter.com/Gu84eK1mVZ

— Kyle Chassé / DD (@kyle_chasse) September 9, 2024

— 凯尔·查塞 / DD (@kyle_chasse) 2024 年 9 月 9 日

Bitcoin’s limited supply, especially in light of the upcoming halving event, continues to support the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold.” The evolution of Bitcoin is also evident in its increasing legal definition and a more inclusive approach by both retail and institutional investors.

比特币的供应有限，特别是考虑到即将到来的减半事件，继续支持比特币作为“数字黄金”的说法。比特币的演变还体现在其不断增加的法律定义以及散户和机构投资者更具包容性的方法。

Moreover, the recent approval of several spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has only heightened interest in Bitcoin as a store of value. As noted by crypto analyst Carl Runefelt, the current market behavior closely resembles that of October 2023.

此外，美国最近批准了多个现货交易所交易基金（ETF），这只会增加人们对比特币作为价值储存手段的兴趣。正如加密货币分析师 Carl Runefelt 指出的那样，当前的市场行为与 2023 年 10 月非常相似。

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Analysts Forecast Price Surge

比特币价格分析：分析师预测价格飙升

Analyst Justin Bennett outlined a potential scenario for the BTC price to reach $70,000. He noted that reclaiming the $63,000 to $64,000 level could mark the beginning of this surge. However, Bennett warned that the recent rally could be a “bull trap” if prices rise only to decline again, especially if support levels are breached. He pointed out that a major breakout is only possible if the price manages to climb back to the $64,500 level.

分析师 Justin Bennett 概述了 BTC 价格达到 70,000 美元的潜在情景。他指出，收复 63,000 美元至 64,000 美元的水平可能标志着这一飙升的开始。然而，贝内特警告说，如果价格上涨后再次下跌，特别是在支撑位被突破的情况下，最近的反弹可能是一个“牛市陷阱”。他指出，只有当价格设法回升至 64,500 美元的水平时，才有可能出现重大突破。

A counterargument to my calls for $BTC $57k before $70k is this 4h channel.

我认为 BTC 在 7 万美元之前价格为 5.7 万美元的说法的反驳是这个 4 小时通道。

If #Bitcoin can reclaim $63-$64k, we can start talking about sweeping the $69-$70k shorts.

如果#Bitcoin 可以收回 63-64,000 美元，我们就可以开始讨论扫除 69-70,000 美元的空头。

If it can't and these support levels start to fail, $57k becomes the target. pic.twitter.com/xefdqEOFjn

如果不能，并且这些支撑位开始失效，则 57,000 美元将成为目标。 pic.twitter.com/xefdqEOFjn

— Justin Bennett (@JustinBennettFX) October 4, 2024

— 贾斯汀·贝内特 (@JustinBennettFX) 2024 年 10 月 4 日

According to Bennett, trading volume in Bitcoin tends to increase after the stock market closes, indicating further potential for the cryptocurrency to continue its upward trajectory.

贝内特表示，股市收盘后，比特币的交易量往往会增加，这表明加密货币有进一步继续其上涨轨迹的潜力。

Currently, the total amount of Bitcoin on various exchanges has been gradually decreasing since Oct. 3, dropping from 2.58 million to 2.57 million BTC. This suggests that traders are increasingly opting to hold their Bitcoin off exchanges, which is a positive sign for the asset.

目前，各交易所的比特币总量自10月3日起逐渐减少，从258万枚降至257万枚。这表明交易者越来越多地选择将比特币保留在交易所之外，这对该资产来说是一个积极的信号。

Bullish Indicators Emerge

看涨指标出现

Recent trends indicate a decrease in Bitcoin supply on exchanges and a rise in demand. The CryptoQuant Exchange Stablecoin Ratio, at 0.00009506 and falling, suggests that available stablecoins are being used to buy Bitcoin. If this trend continues, BTC could continue its upward movement as market sentiment shifts towards more long positions.

最近的趋势表明，交易所的比特币供应减少，需​​求增加。 CryptoQuant 交易所稳定币比率为 0.00009506，并且正在下降，表明可用的稳定币正在被用来购买比特币。如果这种趋势持续下去，随着市场情绪转向更多多头头寸，比特币可能会继续上涨。

Data from Coinglass shows that short traders on Bitcoin have suffered significant losses on their trades. Liquidators have wiped out about $41.80 million in short contracts on BTC, indicating a clear shift in the market towards bullish territory.

Coinglass 的数据显示，比特币空头交易者的交易遭受了重大损失。清算人已经清空了约 4180 万美元的 BTC 空头合约，这表明市场明显转向看涨区域。

Moreover, Open Interest, a key metric measuring trader activity, increased by 3.66%, reaching $34.08 billion.

此外，衡量交易者活动的关键指标未平仓量增长了 3.66%，达到 340.8 亿美元。