比特幣超級週期：分析師預測 BTC 可能達到 40 萬美元

分析師對比特幣的未來越來越樂觀。 Santiment 的數據表明，當前的恐懼、不確定性和懷疑 (FUD) 氣氛實際上可能有助於推高價格。

Bitcoin (BTC) price showed signs of recovery on Monday after facing significant selling pressure last week. The world’s largest cryptocurrency registered a 1.95% decline last week, largely due to a buildup in short positions on major exchanges.

比特幣（BTC）價格在上週面臨巨大拋售壓力後，週一顯示出復甦跡象。全球最大的加密貨幣上週下跌 1.95%，主要是由於主要交易所空頭部位的增加。

However, BTC price recovered 1.50% in 24 hours, showing resilience against the selling pressure. This upward momentum comes despite the recent surge in shorting activity on Binance and BitMEX, which has been escalating since Saturday.

然而，BTC 價格在 24 小時內回升 1.50%，顯示出抵禦拋售壓力的韌性。儘管最近幣安和 BitMEX 的做空活動激增（自周六以來一直在升級），但這種上升勢頭仍然存在。

According to data from Santiment, fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the crypto market could be a positive indicator for Bitcoin’s price. The crypto market intelligence platform highlighted a trend where an increase in FUD tends to coincide with an increase in the cryptocurrency’s price.

根據 Santiment 的數據，加密市場中的恐懼、不確定性和懷疑（FUD）可能是比特幣價格的積極指標。加密貨幣市場情報平台強調了一種趨勢，即 FUD 的增加往往與加密貨幣價格的上漲同時發生。

Meanwhile, some analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s future trajectory. According to Kyle Chasse, an analyst, the next market cycle could see Bitcoin trading at $400,000. While his prediction lacks substantial evidence, it aligns with the price action observed following previous halvings and increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin.

同時，一些分析師對比特幣的未來軌跡持樂觀態度。分析師 Kyle Chasse 表示，下一個市場週期比特幣交易價格可能會達到 40 萬美元。雖然他的預測缺乏實質證據，但它與先前減半後觀察到的價格走勢以及機構對比特幣興趣的增加相一致。

IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT A SUPER CYCLE IS, YOU'RE GOING TO FIND OUT REAL SOON. pic.twitter.com/Gu84eK1mVZ

如果您不知道什麼是超級循環，那麼您很快就會明白。 pic.twitter.com/Gu84eK1mVZ

— Kyle Chassé / DD (@kyle_chasse) September 9, 2024

— 凱爾查塞 / DD (@kyle_chasse) 2024 年 9 月 9 日

Bitcoin’s limited supply, especially in light of the upcoming halving event, continues to support the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold.” The evolution of Bitcoin is also evident in its increasing legal definition and a more inclusive approach by both retail and institutional investors.

比特幣的供應有限，特別是考慮到即將到來的減半事件，繼續支持比特幣作為「數位黃金」的說法。比特幣的演變也體現在其不斷增加的法律定義以及散戶和機構投資者更具包容性的方法。

Moreover, the recent approval of several spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has only heightened interest in Bitcoin as a store of value. As noted by crypto analyst Carl Runefelt, the current market behavior closely resembles that of October 2023.

此外，美國最近批准了多個現貨交易所交易基金（ETF），這只會增加人們對比特幣作為價值儲存手段的興趣。正如加密貨幣分析師 Carl Runefelt 所指出的那樣，當前的市場行為與 2023 年 10 月非常相似。

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Analysts Forecast Price Surge

比特幣價格分析：分析師預測價格飆升

Analyst Justin Bennett outlined a potential scenario for the BTC price to reach $70,000. He noted that reclaiming the $63,000 to $64,000 level could mark the beginning of this surge. However, Bennett warned that the recent rally could be a “bull trap” if prices rise only to decline again, especially if support levels are breached. He pointed out that a major breakout is only possible if the price manages to climb back to the $64,500 level.

分析師 Justin Bennett 概述了 BTC 價格達到 70,000 美元的潛在情景。他指出，收復 63,000 美元至 64,000 美元的水平可能標誌著這一飆升的開始。然而，貝內特警告說，如果價格上漲後再次下跌，特別是在支撐位被突破的情況下，最近的反彈可能是一個「牛市陷阱」。他指出，只有當價格設法回升至 64,500 美元的水平時，才有可能出現重大突破。

A counterargument to my calls for $BTC $57k before $70k is this 4h channel.

我認為 BTC 在 7 萬美元之前價格為 5.7 萬美元的說法的反駁是這個 4 小時通道。

If #Bitcoin can reclaim $63-$64k, we can start talking about sweeping the $69-$70k shorts.

如果#Bitcoin 可以收回 63-64,000 美元，我們就可以開始討論掃除 69-70,000 美元的空頭。

If it can't and these support levels start to fail, $57k becomes the target. pic.twitter.com/xefdqEOFjn

如果不能，而這些支撐位開始失效，則 57,000 美元將成為目標。 pic.twitter.com/xefdqEOFjn

— Justin Bennett (@JustinBennettFX) October 4, 2024

— 賈斯汀貝內特 (@JustinBennettFX) 2024 年 10 月 4 日

According to Bennett, trading volume in Bitcoin tends to increase after the stock market closes, indicating further potential for the cryptocurrency to continue its upward trajectory.

貝內特表示，股市收盤後，比特幣的交易量往往會增加，這表明加密貨幣有進一步繼續其上漲軌蹟的潛力。

Currently, the total amount of Bitcoin on various exchanges has been gradually decreasing since Oct. 3, dropping from 2.58 million to 2.57 million BTC. This suggests that traders are increasingly opting to hold their Bitcoin off exchanges, which is a positive sign for the asset.

目前，各交易所的比特幣總量自10月3日起逐漸減少，從258萬枚降至257萬枚。這表明交易者越來越多地選擇將比特幣保留在交易所之外，這對該資產來說是一個積極的信號。

Bullish Indicators Emerge

看漲指標出現

Recent trends indicate a decrease in Bitcoin supply on exchanges and a rise in demand. The CryptoQuant Exchange Stablecoin Ratio, at 0.00009506 and falling, suggests that available stablecoins are being used to buy Bitcoin. If this trend continues, BTC could continue its upward movement as market sentiment shifts towards more long positions.

最近的趨勢表明，交易所的比特幣供應減少，需求增加。 CryptoQuant 交易所穩定幣比率為 0.00009506，並且正在下降，表明可用的穩定幣正在被用來購買比特幣。如果這種趨勢持續下去，隨著市場情緒轉向更多多頭頭寸，比特幣可能會繼續上漲。

Data from Coinglass shows that short traders on Bitcoin have suffered significant losses on their trades. Liquidators have wiped out about $41.80 million in short contracts on BTC, indicating a clear shift in the market towards bullish territory.

Coinglass 的數據顯示，比特幣空頭交易者的交易遭受了重大損失。清算人已經清空了約 4,180 萬美元的 BTC 空頭合約，這表明市場明顯轉向看漲區域。

Moreover, Open Interest, a key metric measuring trader activity, increased by 3.66%, reaching $34.08 billion.

此外，衡量交易者活動的關鍵指標未平倉量增加了 3.66%，達到 340.8 億美元。