随着比特币增强其在市场中的主要地位，Kaiko研究报告破坏了2025年的期望

加密货币投资者可能需要在2025年调整其策略。根据Kaiko Research与Blockhead Research合作的一份报告

As Bitcoin strengthens its dominant position in the markets, the Kaiko Research report disrupts expectations for 2025: forget the widespread altseason of the past, only a few carefully selected altcoins will thrive this year.

随着比特币在市场上加强了其在市场上的主导地位，Kaiko Research报告破坏了2025年的期望：忘记了过去的季后赛，只有少数精心挑选的Altcoins今年将蓬勃发展。

The altcoin market is entering a phase of strategic selectivity. Cryptocurrency investors may need to adjust their strategies in 2025. According to a report published in March 2025 by Kaiko Research in collaboration with Blockhead Research, the era of broad altcoin surges may be giving way to a more selective approach.

Altcoin市场正在进入战略选择性阶段。加密货币投资者可能需要在2025年调整其策略。

This significant shift can be explained by the evolving liquidity trends, the intensifying regulatory pressures, and the expanding footprint of Bitcoin within institutional capital.

这一重大转变可以通过不断发展的流动性趋势，加剧的监管压力以及机构资本中比特币的扩大足迹来解释。

The concentration of the altcoin market has reached historical highs. The data reveals that the top 10 altcoins now represent 64% of the total trading volume, compared to only 32% at the end of 2021.

Altcoin市场的集中度达到了历史高潮。数据表明，目前前10名山寨币占总交易量的64％，而到2021年底仅为32％。

This centralization has accelerated since the last US elections, creating an environment where some large caps like Solana (SOL) and XRP are progressing, while small and mid-cap tokens have seen a decline of more than 30% since the beginning of the year.

自上次美国大选以来，这种集中化已经加速了，创造了一个环境，在该环境中，索拉纳（Sol）和XRP等大型盖帽正在进步，而自年初以来，中小型股份正在进步，而中小型代币的下降幅度已下降了30％以上。

The Altcoin Season Index from blockchaincenter.net also confirms this trend with a score of 20, far from the threshold of 75 needed to declare a true altcoin season.

BlockchainCenter.net的AltCoin季节指数还以20分的得分确认了这一趋势，远非宣布真正的Altcoin季节所需的75个门槛。

In practical terms, this means that only 10 cryptocurrencies among the top 50 have outperformed Bitcoin in the last three months.

实际上，这意味着在过去三个月中，前50名中只有10次加密货币优于比特币。

Unfavorable macroeconomic factors are also compounding the difficulties for altcoins. The rapid rise in interest rates and the reduction of liquidity by central banks have significantly dampened the appetite for risky assets.

不利的宏观经济因素也使山寨币的困难更加复杂。中央银行的利率迅速上升和流动性降低严重削弱了对风险资产的需求。

This climate contrasts sharply with the accommodative monetary policies that fueled the 2021 crypto boom.

这种气候与助长了2021年加密货币繁荣的适应性货币政策形成鲜明对比。

Bitcoin, for its part, has benefited from the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, which drew over a billion dollars in trading volume on the first day.

就比特币而言，比特币受益于美国的现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准，第一天的交易量超过了十亿美元。

This institutional legitimization has strengthened its dominant position, to the detriment of altcoins that face increased competition for capital.

这种机构合法化加强了其主导地位，损害了面临资本竞争竞争的山寨币。

The American political uncertainty index, now at record levels since the Covid-19 pandemic, has also pushed investors towards Bitcoin’s perceived stability in a turbulent environment.

自从199日大流行以来，美国的政治不确定性指数现在处于创纪录的水平，也推动了投资者在动荡的环境中迈向比特币在动荡的环境中的稳定性。

This search for a safe haven partly explains the low activity on altcoin networks, a phenomenon already highlighted in a previous article: Crypto: Why is the altseason delayed?

这种寻找避风港的搜索部分解释了Altcoin Networks上的低活动，这是上一篇文章中已经强调的现象：加密货币：为什么Altseason推迟了？

The Kaiko Research report concludes that the traditional period of uniform altcoin rises could be replaced by a phase of “strategic selection.”

Kaiko研究报告得出的结论是，传统的统一Altcoin上升时期可以用“战略选择”阶段代替。

In this new paradigm, the success of an altcoin will depend essentially on three key factors:

在这个新的范式中，AltCoin的成功将基本取决于三个关键因素：

This evolution marks a decisive turning point for crypto investors, who will now need to prioritize precision in the composition of their portfolios rather than aiming for broad diversification.

这种演变标志着加密投资者的决定性转折点，加密投资者现在需要优先考虑其投资组合的精确度，而不是致力于广泛的多元化。

Fragile or truly useless projects risk being sidelined in favor of stronger alternatives that are better positioned to attract institutional investments. The recent collapse of 99% of memecoins on pump.fun is a stark illustration of this new market selectivity.

脆弱或真正无用的项目有可能被淘汰，而有利于更强大的替代方案，这些替代方案可以更好地吸引机构投资。最近，99％的Memecoins在Pump.fun上崩溃是这种新市场选择性的鲜明例证。

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