隨著比特幣增強其在市場中的主要地位，Kaiko研究報告破壞了2025年的期望

加密貨幣投資者可能需要在2025年調整其策略。根據Kaiko Research與Blockhead Research合作的一份報告

As Bitcoin strengthens its dominant position in the markets, the Kaiko Research report disrupts expectations for 2025: forget the widespread altseason of the past, only a few carefully selected altcoins will thrive this year.

隨著比特幣在市場上加強了其在市場上的主導地位，Kaiko Research報告破壞了2025年的期望：忘記了過去的季后賽，只有少數精心挑選的Altcoins今年將蓬勃發展。

The altcoin market is entering a phase of strategic selectivity. Cryptocurrency investors may need to adjust their strategies in 2025. According to a report published in March 2025 by Kaiko Research in collaboration with Blockhead Research, the era of broad altcoin surges may be giving way to a more selective approach.

Altcoin市場正在進入戰略選擇性階段。加密貨幣投資者可能需要在2025年調整其策略。

This significant shift can be explained by the evolving liquidity trends, the intensifying regulatory pressures, and the expanding footprint of Bitcoin within institutional capital.

這一重大轉變可以通過不斷發展的流動性趨勢，加劇的監管壓力以及機構資本中比特幣的擴大足跡來解釋。

The concentration of the altcoin market has reached historical highs. The data reveals that the top 10 altcoins now represent 64% of the total trading volume, compared to only 32% at the end of 2021.

Altcoin市場的集中度達到了歷史高潮。數據表明，目前前10名山寨幣佔總交易量的64％，而到2021年底僅為32％。

This centralization has accelerated since the last US elections, creating an environment where some large caps like Solana (SOL) and XRP are progressing, while small and mid-cap tokens have seen a decline of more than 30% since the beginning of the year.

自上次美國大選以來，這種集中化已經加速了，創造了一個環境，在該環境中，索拉納（Sol）和XRP等大型蓋帽正在進步，而自年初以來，中小型股份正在進步，而中小型代幣的下降幅度已下降了30％以上。

The Altcoin Season Index from blockchaincenter.net also confirms this trend with a score of 20, far from the threshold of 75 needed to declare a true altcoin season.

BlockchainCenter.net的AltCoin季節指數還以20分的得分確認了這一趨勢，遠非宣布真正的Altcoin季節所需的75個門檻。

In practical terms, this means that only 10 cryptocurrencies among the top 50 have outperformed Bitcoin in the last three months.

實際上，這意味著在過去三個月中，前50名中只有10次加密貨幣優於比特幣。

Unfavorable macroeconomic factors are also compounding the difficulties for altcoins. The rapid rise in interest rates and the reduction of liquidity by central banks have significantly dampened the appetite for risky assets.

不利的宏觀經濟因素也使山寨幣的困難更加複雜。中央銀行的利率迅速上升和流動性降低嚴重削弱了對風險資產的需求。

This climate contrasts sharply with the accommodative monetary policies that fueled the 2021 crypto boom.

這種氣候與助長了2021年加密貨幣繁榮的適應性貨幣政策形成鮮明對比。

Bitcoin, for its part, has benefited from the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, which drew over a billion dollars in trading volume on the first day.

就比特幣而言，比特幣受益於美國的現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准，第一天的交易量超過了十億美元。

This institutional legitimization has strengthened its dominant position, to the detriment of altcoins that face increased competition for capital.

這種機構合法化加強了其主導地位，損害了面臨資本競爭競爭的山寨幣。

The American political uncertainty index, now at record levels since the Covid-19 pandemic, has also pushed investors towards Bitcoin’s perceived stability in a turbulent environment.

自從199日大流行以來，美國的政治不確定性指數現在處於創紀錄的水平，也推動了投資者在動蕩的環境中邁向比特幣在動蕩的環境中的穩定性。

This search for a safe haven partly explains the low activity on altcoin networks, a phenomenon already highlighted in a previous article: Crypto: Why is the altseason delayed?

這種尋找避風港的搜索部分解釋了Altcoin Networks上的低活動，這是上一篇文章中已經強調的現象：加密貨幣：為什麼Altseason推遲了？

The Kaiko Research report concludes that the traditional period of uniform altcoin rises could be replaced by a phase of “strategic selection.”

Kaiko研究報告得出的結論是，傳統的統一Altcoin上升時期可以用“戰略選擇”階段代替。

In this new paradigm, the success of an altcoin will depend essentially on three key factors:

在這個新的範式中，AltCoin的成功將基本取決於三個關鍵因素：

This evolution marks a decisive turning point for crypto investors, who will now need to prioritize precision in the composition of their portfolios rather than aiming for broad diversification.

這種演變標誌著加密投資者的決定性轉折點，加密投資者現在需要優先考慮其投資組合的精確度，而不是致力於廣泛的多元化。

Fragile or truly useless projects risk being sidelined in favor of stronger alternatives that are better positioned to attract institutional investments. The recent collapse of 99% of memecoins on pump.fun is a stark illustration of this new market selectivity.

脆弱或真正無用的項目有可能被淘汰，而有利於更強大的替代方案，這些替代方案可以更好地吸引機構投資。最近，99％的Memecoins在Pump.fun上崩潰是這種新市場選擇性的鮮明例證。

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