比特币减半后螺旋式上升：ETF在市场大动荡中受到审查

比特币最近的价格下跌可归因于多种因素。减半后美国比特币现货 ETF 的资金流出总计 1.206 亿美元，是造成比特币下跌的原因之一。其他触发因素包括多头头寸清算，24 小时内损失 2 亿美元。 Grayscale 比特币信托基金提取了 1.304 亿美元的巨额资金。分析师预测，由于历史模式和全球紧张局势，市场将进一步波动并可能出现下滑。

Bitcoin's Post-Halving Tumble: Unraveling the Role of ETFs and Wider Market Forces

比特币减半后的暴跌：揭示 ETF 和更广泛市场力量的作用

As retail investors grapple with mounting concerns over Bitcoin's price slide, a pivotal question arises: could Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) be exacerbating the downtrend?

随着散户投资者应对比特币价格下滑日益加剧的担忧，一个关键问题出现了：比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）是否会加剧下跌趋势？

Since the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event last week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have witnessed a stark reversal of fortune, losing a staggering $120.6 million in net outflows. This sharp departure from the persistent inflows they have enjoyed begs the question: is this sudden outflow contributing to Bitcoin's current weakness?

自上周备受期待的比特币减半事件以来，美国比特币现货 ETF 的命运发生了明显逆转，净流出损失高达 1.206 亿美元。这种与他们所享受的持续资金流入的急剧背离引发了一个问题：这种突然的资金外流是否导致了比特币目前的疲软？

The debate has ignited fierce discussions, casting a spotlight on the role ETFs played in Bitcoin's pre-halving surge and the looming possibility of a further decline towards $50,000 or lower. Data from Coinglass paints a grim picture, revealing over $200 million liquidated in just 24 hours, with $37.83 million and $34.17 million liquidated from long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, respectively.

这场辩论引发了激烈的讨论，让人们关注 ETF 在比特币减半前的飙升中所扮演的角色，以及进一步跌向 50,000 美元或更低的可能性。 Coinglass 的数据描绘了一幅严峻的景象，显示短短 24 小时内清算了超过 2 亿美元，其中比特币和以太坊多头头寸分别清算了 3783 万美元和 3417 万美元。

Amongst the ETFs, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) bore the brunt, experiencing a $130.4 million withdrawal, marking its most significant retreat to date. Conversely, Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) emerged as an outlier, attracting $5.61 million against the prevailing trend.

在 ETF 中，灰度比特币信托基金 (GBTC) 首当其冲，撤资 1.304 亿美元，这是迄今为止最大幅度的撤资。相反，富达的 Wise Origin 比特币基金（FBTC）却成为了一个异类，逆势吸引了 561 万美元的资金。

Simultaneously, Bitcoin stumbled below the $64,000 mark, triggering a sweeping wave of liquidations across the cryptocurrency landscape. The aftermath has been brutal: over $200 million vanished from the market in less than a day, leaving investors clutching precariously at volatility as Bitcoin and Ethereum endured heavy losses.

与此同时，比特币跌破 64,000 美元大关，引发了整个加密货币领域的全面清算浪潮。后果是残酷的：不到一天的时间里，超过 2 亿美元的资金就从市场上消失了，比特币和以太坊遭受了严重损失，导致投资者在波动中摇摇欲坠。

A deeper dive into the ETF landscape reveals a sobering trend: most Bitcoin spot ETFs have hit a dry spell, with only Fidelity's FBTC and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) still receiving inflows. Notably, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which enjoyed a meteoric rise in January, abruptly halted its growth trajectory on April 24th, with zero inflows recorded.

深入研究 ETF 格局揭示了一个发人深省的趋势：大多数比特币现货 ETF 都陷入了枯竭期，只有 Fidelity 的 FBTC 和 ARK 21Shares 比特币 ETF (ARKB) 仍在接收资金流入。值得注意的是，贝莱德旗下的 iShares 比特币信托基金 (IBIT) 在 1 月份经历了飞速上涨，但在 4 月 24 日突然停止了增长轨迹，资金流入为零。

The downturn has extended beyond Bitcoin, impacting altcoins such as Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Shiba Inu, and Avalanche, which have all lost close to double-digit percentages, highlighting the broad impact of shifting market sentiment. In the realm of Ethereum ETFs, the SEC has exercised caution, pausing approval for any ETH ETF applications for another 60 days, signaling a cautious approach to expanding the crypto ETF universe.

经济低迷不仅影响了比特币，还影响了 Solana、Dogecoin、Cardano、Shiba Inu 和 Avalanche 等山寨币，这些货币的跌幅均接近两位数，凸显了市场情绪变化的广泛影响。在以太坊 ETF 领域，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 保持谨慎态度，暂停批准任何 ETH ETF 申请 60 天，这表明对扩大加密 ETF 领域采取谨慎态度。

Hong Kong, however, has taken a more progressive stance, approving Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs for trading on April 30th.

然而，香港采取了更为进步的立场，于 4 月 30 日批准比特币和以太坊现货 ETF 交易。

Despite the market's downward spiral, it's crucial to acknowledge that Bitcoin ETFs are not the sole reason for the pervasive bearish sentiment. Analysts from 99Bitcoins have historically observed a pattern of Bitcoin crashes following halving events, typically occurring within 60 days or more. Additionally, the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has shifted the market's focus away from cryptocurrency and towards assessing its potential impact on global markets.

尽管市场呈螺旋式下降，但必须承认比特币 ETF 并不是普遍看跌情绪的唯一原因。 99Bitcoins 的分析师历来观察到减半事件后比特币崩溃的模式，通常发生在 60 天或更长时间内。此外，持续不断的以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突已将市场的焦点从加密货币转移到评估其对全球市场的潜在影响。

As of now, ETF holders appear to be selling their Bitcoin holdings prematurely. However, considering this is the first halving cycle for most of these funds, their trepidation is understandable. Investors should brace themselves for the possibility of further downturns in the crypto markets before a sustainable recovery can take hold.

截至目前，ETF 持有者似乎正在过早出售其持有的比特币。然而，考虑到这是大多数此类基金的第一个减半周期，他们的担忧是可以理解的。在可持续复苏之前，投资者应该做好应对加密货币市场进一步下滑的可能性的准备。