尽管加密货币寒冬，比特币仍飙升至新高，为减半后的反弹做好准备

On March 13, Bitcoin (BTC -2.39%) soared to a new all-time high of about $73,500. After a brutal crypto winter in 2022 that saw its price plummet more than 65%, the resurgence was a sight for sore eyes for those who weathered the storm from the previous all-time high back down to $16,000.

3月13日，比特币（BTC -2.39%）飙升至约73,500美元的历史新高。在经历了 2022 年加密货币价格暴跌超过 65% 的残酷寒冬之后，对于那些经受住这场风暴从之前的历史高点回落至 16,000 美元的人来说，这次的复苏令人眼花缭乱。

But this new high is more than a morale boost. It's actually the first time Bitcoin has ever notched an all-time high before a halving. And based on a handful of other factors, it might just be a sign of what's to come.

但这个新高不仅仅是士气的鼓舞。这实际上是比特币首次在减半前创下历史新高。基于一些其他因素，这可能只是即将发生的事情的一个征兆。

Image source: Getty Images.

图片来源：盖蒂图片社。

How Bitcoin accomplished this feat

Hardwired into the cryptocurrency's code is an event known as the halving. Occurring after every 210,000 blocks are added to its blockchain (or roughly every four years), the halving underpins the cryptocurrency's robust monetary policy. With each halving that passes, the rate of Bitcoin's supply growth is cut in half. This process will continue until the last Bitcoin is mined in 2140.

比特币如何实现这一壮举硬连线到加密货币的代码中是一个称为减半的事件。每 210,000 个区块添加到其区块链后（或大约每四年）就会发生一次减半，这支撑了加密货币稳健的货币政策。每减半一次，比特币的供应增长率就会减半。这个过程将持续到 2140 年最后一个比特币被开采出来为止。

The effects of the halving aren't all that difficult to see. A cut to the rate of supply makes it so that even if demand remains constant, prices must increase.

减半的影响并不难看到。供给率的降低使得即使需求保持不变，价格也必须上涨。

But the impact of the halving historically reaches its full extent after it occurs. In fact, Bitcoin has never hit a new high before a halving -- until this year. That's what makes its recent run-up to $73,000 an anomaly.

但从历史上看，减半的影响在发生后才达到最大程度。事实上，直到今年，比特币在减半之前从未创下新高。这也是其最近涨至 73,000 美元的反常现象的原因。

It isn't uncommon for Bitcoin to increase in the year that it undergoes a halving. During those years, the price jumps about 125% as the market anticipates the cut to its supply. But on its current trajectory, it is on pace to surpass the average and return more than 200% this year and it goes to show how this halving cycle is shaping up to be different than past ones.

比特币在减半的那一年上涨并不罕见。在那些年里，由于市场预计其供应量将减少，价格上涨了约 125%。但按照目前的轨迹，今年的回报率有望超过平均水平并超过 200%，这表明本次减半周期与过去的减半周期有何不同。

So far in 2024, #BTC is outperforming the average of prior halving-year returns. pic.twitter.com/z7G2FAWX0Z

2024 年到目前为止，#BTC 的表现优于之前减半年的平均回报率。 pic.twitter.com/z7G2FAWX0Z

-- Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) March 25, 2024

——本杰明·考恩 (@intocryptoverse) 2024 年 3 月 25 日

There are likely several explanations for why Bitcoin is ahead of schedule. However, the most apparent and influential likely boils down to the simple phenomenon of supply and demand.

对于比特币为何提前的原因可能有多种解释。然而，最明显和最有影响力的可能归结为简单的供需现象。

As it stands, available supply is at levels not seen since 2018. With just 2.2 million coins on cryptocurrency exchanges, this will be the first halving where there are less bitcoins available than the previous halving. The diminishing supply can likely be attributed to a near-record number of holders who refuse to part with their precious coins. Before its last leg up, long-term holders had an astounding 75% of the total supply.

就目前情况而言，可用供应量处于 2018 年以来的最高水平。加密货币交易所上仅有 220 万枚比特币，这将是第一次减半，可用比特币数量比前一次减半要少。供应量减少可能是由于拒绝放弃珍贵硬币的持有者数量接近创纪录。在最后一次上涨之前，长期持有者占总供应量的比例高达 75%，令人震惊。

With notoriously stubborn holders creating a historic shortage, the arrival of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January exacerbated the problem. To meet voracious demand from investors, the firms providing the ETFs embarked on an accumulation of historic proportions.

由于臭名昭著的顽固持有者造成了历史性的短缺，一月份现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的到来加剧了这一问题。为了满足投资者的旺盛需求，提供 ETF 的公司开始进行历史性的积累。

While demand has cooled slightly in the past few weeks, at one point the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs were buying at 14 times the rate of the crypto's daily production (roughly 900 coins). Add it all up and we have the perfect formula for the price to rise.

尽管需求在过去几周略有降温，但 11 个现货比特币 ETF 的购买量一度是该加密货币每日产量（约 900 个比特币）的 14 倍。把所有这些加起来，我们就得到了价格上涨的完美公式。

Looking forward to the post-halving

As impressive as this year is shaping up to be, history tells us that the best stretches occur in post-halving years. In the year after a halving, the price rose by more than 400% on average as the market was forced to compete for fewer bitcoins entering circulation.

展望减半后 尽管今年的表现令人印象深刻，但历史告诉我们，最好的时期出现在减半后的年份。在减半后的一年里，由于市场被迫争夺进入流通的比特币数量减少，比特币价格平均上涨超过 400%。

Even though past performance doesn't indicate future results, the current landscape indicates that 2025 should follow a similar path to previous post-halving years. With Bitcoin's new home on Wall Street, deep-pocketed institutions now have access to the cryptocurrency, a factor not present in past halvings.

尽管过去的表现并不预示未来的结果，但目前的形势表明 2025 年应该遵循与之前减半后年份类似的路径。随着比特币在华尔街落户，财力雄厚的机构现在可以使用这种加密货币，这是过去减半中不存在的因素。

With supply already at historical lows, another halving that will push its supply growth rate below 1% holds the potential to send the crypto to prices not yet seen. There is no easy way to quantify just how high it could go during this halving cycle, but it is likely 2025 will follow a similar path as previous post-halving years and could possibly be even more explosive.

由于供应已经处于历史低位，再次减半将使其供应增长率低于 1%，有可能将加密货币推向尚未见过的价格。没有简单的方法来量化在这个减半周期中它会达到多高，但 2025 年很可能会遵循与之前减半后年份类似的路径，并且可能更具爆炸性。

As Bitcoin's price hovers around $71,000 today, there is still an incredible amount of upside for the world's most valuable cryptocurrency. With trends in adoption growing and the arrival of some of Wall Street's biggest names, it appears that the best days are still ahead. See you after the halving.

目前，比特币的价格徘徊在 71,000 美元左右，作为世界上最有价值的加密货币，仍有令人难以置信的上涨空间。随着采用趋势的不断增长以及一些华尔街大腕的到来，看来最好的日子还在后面。减半后见。