儘管加密貨幣寒冬，比特幣仍飆升至新高，為減半後的反彈做好準備

On March 13, Bitcoin (BTC -2.39%) soared to a new all-time high of about $73,500. After a brutal crypto winter in 2022 that saw its price plummet more than 65%, the resurgence was a sight for sore eyes for those who weathered the storm from the previous all-time high back down to $16,000.

3月13日，比特幣（BTC -2.39%）飆升至約73,500美元的歷史新高。在經歷了 2022 年加密貨幣價格暴跌超過 65% 的殘酷寒冬之後，對於那些經受住這場風暴從之前的歷史高點回落至 16,000 美元的人來說，這次的複蘇令人眼花繚亂。

But this new high is more than a morale boost. It's actually the first time Bitcoin has ever notched an all-time high before a halving. And based on a handful of other factors, it might just be a sign of what's to come.

但這個新高不僅僅是士氣的鼓舞。這其實是比特幣首次在減半前創下歷史新高。基於一些其他因素，這可能只是即將發生的事情的一個徵兆。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖片來源：蓋蒂圖片社。

How Bitcoin accomplished this feat

Hardwired into the cryptocurrency's code is an event known as the halving. Occurring after every 210,000 blocks are added to its blockchain (or roughly every four years), the halving underpins the cryptocurrency's robust monetary policy. With each halving that passes, the rate of Bitcoin's supply growth is cut in half. This process will continue until the last Bitcoin is mined in 2140.

比特幣如何實現這項壯舉硬連線到加密貨幣的程式碼中是一個稱為減半的事件。每 21 萬個區塊添加到其區塊鏈後（或大約每四年）就會發生一次減半，這支撐了加密貨幣穩健的貨幣政策。每減半一次，比特幣的供應成長率就會減半。這個過程將持續到 2140 年最後一個比特幣被開採出來為止。

The effects of the halving aren't all that difficult to see. A cut to the rate of supply makes it so that even if demand remains constant, prices must increase.

減半的影響並不難看到。供給率的降低使得即使需求保持不變，價格也必須上漲。

But the impact of the halving historically reaches its full extent after it occurs. In fact, Bitcoin has never hit a new high before a halving -- until this year. That's what makes its recent run-up to $73,000 an anomaly.

但從歷史上看，減半的影響在發生後才達到最大程度。事實上，直到今年，比特幣在減半之前從未創下新高。這也是其最近漲至 73,000 美元的反常現象的原因。

It isn't uncommon for Bitcoin to increase in the year that it undergoes a halving. During those years, the price jumps about 125% as the market anticipates the cut to its supply. But on its current trajectory, it is on pace to surpass the average and return more than 200% this year and it goes to show how this halving cycle is shaping up to be different than past ones.

比特幣在減半的那一年上漲並不罕見。在那些年裡，由於市場預計其供應量將減少，價格上漲了約 125%。但按照目前的軌跡，今年的回報率預計將超過平均水平並超過 200%，這表明本次減半週期與過去的減半週期有何不同。

So far in 2024, #BTC is outperforming the average of prior halving-year returns. pic.twitter.com/z7G2FAWX0Z

2024 年到目前為止，#BTC 的表現優於先前減半年的平均報酬率。 pic.twitter.com/z7G2FAWX0Z

-- Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) March 25, 2024

——本傑明·考恩 (@intocryptoverse) 2024 年 3 月 25 日

There are likely several explanations for why Bitcoin is ahead of schedule. However, the most apparent and influential likely boils down to the simple phenomenon of supply and demand.

對於比特幣為何提前的原因可能有多種解釋。然而，最明顯和最有影響力的可能歸結為簡單的供需現象。

As it stands, available supply is at levels not seen since 2018. With just 2.2 million coins on cryptocurrency exchanges, this will be the first halving where there are less bitcoins available than the previous halving. The diminishing supply can likely be attributed to a near-record number of holders who refuse to part with their precious coins. Before its last leg up, long-term holders had an astounding 75% of the total supply.

就目前情況而言，可用供應量處於2018 年以來的最高水平。加密貨幣交易所上僅有220 萬枚比特幣，這將是第一次減半，可用比特幣數量比前一次減半要少。供應量減少可能是由於拒絕放棄珍貴硬幣的持有者數量接近創紀錄。在最後一次上漲之前，長期持有者佔總供應量的比例高達 75%，令人震驚。

With notoriously stubborn holders creating a historic shortage, the arrival of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January exacerbated the problem. To meet voracious demand from investors, the firms providing the ETFs embarked on an accumulation of historic proportions.

由於臭名昭著的頑固持有者造成了歷史性的短缺，一月份現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的到來加劇了這個問題。為了滿足投資者的旺盛需求，提供 ETF 的公司開始進行歷史性的累積。

While demand has cooled slightly in the past few weeks, at one point the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs were buying at 14 times the rate of the crypto's daily production (roughly 900 coins). Add it all up and we have the perfect formula for the price to rise.

儘管需求在過去幾週略有降溫，但 11 個現貨比特幣 ETF 的購買量一度是該加密貨幣每日產量（約 900 個比特幣）的 14 倍。把所有這些加起來，我們就得到了價格上漲的完美公式。

Looking forward to the post-halving

As impressive as this year is shaping up to be, history tells us that the best stretches occur in post-halving years. In the year after a halving, the price rose by more than 400% on average as the market was forced to compete for fewer bitcoins entering circulation.

展望減半後 儘管今年的表現令人印象深刻，但歷史告訴我們，最好的時期出現在減半後的年份。在減半的一年裡，由於市場被迫爭奪進入流通的比特幣數量減少，比特幣價格平均上漲超過 400%。

Even though past performance doesn't indicate future results, the current landscape indicates that 2025 should follow a similar path to previous post-halving years. With Bitcoin's new home on Wall Street, deep-pocketed institutions now have access to the cryptocurrency, a factor not present in past halvings.

儘管過去的表現並不預示未來的結果，但目前的情況表明 2025 年應該遵循與先前減半後年份類似的路徑。隨著比特幣在華爾街落戶，財力雄厚的機構現在可以使用這種加密貨幣，這是過去減半不存在的因素。

With supply already at historical lows, another halving that will push its supply growth rate below 1% holds the potential to send the crypto to prices not yet seen. There is no easy way to quantify just how high it could go during this halving cycle, but it is likely 2025 will follow a similar path as previous post-halving years and could possibly be even more explosive.

由於供應已經處於歷史低位，再次減半將使其供應成長率低於 1%，有可能將加密貨幣推向尚未見過的價格。沒有簡單的方法來量化在這個減半週期中它會達到多高，但 2025 年很可能會遵循與之前減半後年份類似的路徑，並且可能更具爆炸性。

As Bitcoin's price hovers around $71,000 today, there is still an incredible amount of upside for the world's most valuable cryptocurrency. With trends in adoption growing and the arrival of some of Wall Street's biggest names, it appears that the best days are still ahead. See you after the halving.

目前，比特幣的價格徘徊在 71,000 美元左右，作為世界上最有價值的加密貨幣，仍有令人難以置信的上漲空間。隨著採用趨勢的不斷增長以及一些華爾街大腕的到來，看來最好的日子還在後頭。減半後見。