比特币：需求量大的稀缺资产

比特币的总供应量上限为 2100 万枚。比特币是一个“开源的、抗审查的、点对点的不可变网络”。

input: Bitcoin's price is influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including its supply, market demand, regulatory changes, competition from other cryptocurrencies, investor sentiment, media coverage, and the cost of mining.

输入：比特币的价格受到多种因素的复杂相互作用的影响，包括其供应、市场需求、监管变化、来自其他加密货币的竞争、投资者情绪、媒体报道和挖矿成本。

In 2015, approximately 0.2 per cent of the global population owned Bitcoin. Over the past decade, this figure has surged to 6.8 per cent. It's important to note that the total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins. Question: Given that the supply is fixed and demand is increasing, what would likely happen to the price?

2015 年，全球约 0.2% 的人口拥有比特币。过去十年，这一数字飙升至 6.8%。值得注意的是，比特币的总供应量仅限于 2100 万枚。问题：鉴于供给固定且需求增加，价格可能会发生什么变化？

The price of any asset is directly influenced by its supply. Scarcity drives value – assets in short supply naturally command higher prices, while those in abundance tend to remain low. Currencies like the dollar or rupee can be printed in limitless amounts, diluting their value over time. In stark contrast, Bitcoin's supply is fixed, permanently capped at 21 million. This inherent scarcity gives Bitcoin a unique edge in the market, as its limited availability strengthens its potential for long-term value appreciation

任何资产的价格都直接受到其供应的影响。稀缺性驱动价值——供应短缺的资产自然会获得更高的价格，而供应充足的资产往往价格较低。美元或卢比等货币可以无限量印刷，随着时间的推移，它们的价值会被稀释。与此形成鲜明对比的是，比特币的供应量是固定的，永久限制在 2100 万个。这种固有的稀缺性使比特币在市场上具有独特的优势，因为其有限的可用性增强了其长期价值增值的潜力

Bitcoin's adoption has been particularly rapid in emerging markets. According to recent data, India leads the way with an estimated 75 million users, followed by China with 38 million. Other countries with significant Bitcoin adoption include the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, the Philippines, Venezuela, Argentina, Lebanon, and Iran. This growing interest, particularly in regions with high inflation rates and limited access to traditional financial services, has contributed to Bitcoin's global appeal.

比特币在新兴市场的采用速度特别快。根据最新数据，印度以大约 7500 万用户名列第一，中国紧随其后，拥有 3800 万用户。其他大量采用比特币的国家包括美国、巴西、印度尼西亚、土耳其、阿根廷、菲律宾、委内瑞拉、阿根廷、黎巴嫩和伊朗。这种日益增长的兴趣，特别是在通货膨胀率高且获得传统金融服务机会有限的地区，增强了比特币的全球吸引力。

The launch of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in 2023 marked a significant milestone for Bitcoin's institutional adoption in the United States. The ETF's approval by the SEC signaled a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset. This trend was further solidified in 2024 when Bitcoin ETFs experienced record-breaking net inflows of $20 billion in just the first 17 days of the year. Question: With a capped supply and rising demand, what impact would this have on the price?

2023 年灰度比特币信托基金的推出标志着比特币在美国机构采用的一个重要里程碑。该 ETF 获得 SEC 的批准标志着人们越来越接受比特币作为合法投资资产。这一趋势在 2024 年进一步巩固，仅在今年的前 17 天，比特币 ETF 的净流入就创纪录地达到了 200 亿美元。问：由于供应有限且需求不断上升，这会对价格产生什么影响？

Throughout 2025, Bitcoin's price exhibited remarkable resilience amidst the broader market downturn. While many other cryptocurrencies and assets experienced significant declines, Bitcoin managed to maintain a relatively stable price performance. This resilience was largely attributed to Bitcoin's fundamentals, including its limited supply, growing adoption, and increasing institutional interest. As the year drew to a close, Bitcoin's price hovered around $35,000. Question: Given Bitcoin's fixed supply and the decreasing overall demand in the market, what can we expect to happen to the price?

整个 2025 年，比特币的价格在大盘低迷的情况下表现出了非凡的弹性。尽管许多其他加密货币和资产经历了大幅下跌，但比特币却设法保持了相对稳定的价格表现。这种弹性很大程度上归因于比特币的基本面，包括其有限的供应、不断增长的采用以及不断增加的机构兴趣。年末，比特币的价格徘徊在 35,000 美元左右。问题：鉴于比特币的供应量固定且市场整体需求不断下降，我们预计价格会发生什么变化？

As we begin 2026, the crypto market is abuzz with anticipation for the upcoming halving event. This event, occurring roughly every four years, sees the block reward for mining new Bitcoin decrease by half. With the total supply of Bitcoin limited to 21 million coins and the halving reducing the rate at which new coins enter the market, the scarcity of Bitcoin is set to become even more pronounced.output

2026 年伊始，加密货币市场对即将到来的减半事件充满期待。这一事件大约每四年发生一次，导致开采新比特币的区块奖励减少一半。由于比特币的总供应量仅限于2100万枚，且减半降低了新币进入市场的速度，比特币的稀缺性将变得更加明显。