比特幣：需求量大的稀缺資產

比特幣的總供應量上限為 2,100 萬枚。比特幣是一個「開源的、抗審查的、點對點的不可變網路」。

input: Bitcoin's price is influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including its supply, market demand, regulatory changes, competition from other cryptocurrencies, investor sentiment, media coverage, and the cost of mining.

輸入：比特幣的價格受到多種因素的複雜相互作用的影響，包括其供應、市場需求、監管變化、來自其他加密貨幣的競爭、投資者情緒、媒體報告和挖礦成本。

In 2015, approximately 0.2 per cent of the global population owned Bitcoin. Over the past decade, this figure has surged to 6.8 per cent. It's important to note that the total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins. Question: Given that the supply is fixed and demand is increasing, what would likely happen to the price?

2015 年，全球約 0.2% 的人口擁有比特幣。過去十年，這一數字飆升至 6.8%。值得注意的是，比特幣的總供應量僅限於 2,100 萬枚。問題：鑑於供給固定且需求增加，價格可能會發生什麼變化？

The price of any asset is directly influenced by its supply. Scarcity drives value – assets in short supply naturally command higher prices, while those in abundance tend to remain low. Currencies like the dollar or rupee can be printed in limitless amounts, diluting their value over time. In stark contrast, Bitcoin's supply is fixed, permanently capped at 21 million. This inherent scarcity gives Bitcoin a unique edge in the market, as its limited availability strengthens its potential for long-term value appreciation

任何資產的價格都直接受到其供應的影響。稀缺性驅動價值－供應短缺的資產自然會獲得較高的價格，而供應充足的資產往往價格較低。美元或盧比等貨幣可以無限量印刷，隨著時間的推移，它們的價值會被稀釋。與此形成鮮明對比的是，比特幣的供應量是固定的，永久限制在 2,100 萬個。這種固有的稀缺性使比特幣在市場上具有獨特的優勢，因為其有限的可用性增強了其長期價值增值的潛力

Bitcoin's adoption has been particularly rapid in emerging markets. According to recent data, India leads the way with an estimated 75 million users, followed by China with 38 million. Other countries with significant Bitcoin adoption include the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, the Philippines, Venezuela, Argentina, Lebanon, and Iran. This growing interest, particularly in regions with high inflation rates and limited access to traditional financial services, has contributed to Bitcoin's global appeal.

比特幣在新興市場的採用速度特別快。根據最新數據，印度以約 7,500 萬用戶名列第一，中國緊隨其後，擁有 3,800 萬用戶。其他大量採用比特幣的國家包括美國、巴西、印尼、土耳其、阿根廷、菲律賓、委內瑞拉、阿根廷、黎巴嫩和伊朗。這種日益增長的興趣，特別是在通貨膨脹率高且獲得傳統金融服務機會有限的地區，增強了比特幣的全球吸引力。

The launch of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in 2023 marked a significant milestone for Bitcoin's institutional adoption in the United States. The ETF's approval by the SEC signaled a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset. This trend was further solidified in 2024 when Bitcoin ETFs experienced record-breaking net inflows of $20 billion in just the first 17 days of the year. Question: With a capped supply and rising demand, what impact would this have on the price?

2023 年灰階比特幣信託基金的推出標誌著比特幣在美國機構採用的重要里程碑。該 ETF 獲得 SEC 的批准標誌著人們越來越接受比特幣作為合法投資資產。這一趨勢在 2024 年進一步鞏固，僅在今年的前 17 天，比特幣 ETF 的淨流入就創紀錄地達到了 200 億美元。 Q：由於供應有限且需求不斷上升，這會對價格產生什麼影響？

Throughout 2025, Bitcoin's price exhibited remarkable resilience amidst the broader market downturn. While many other cryptocurrencies and assets experienced significant declines, Bitcoin managed to maintain a relatively stable price performance. This resilience was largely attributed to Bitcoin's fundamentals, including its limited supply, growing adoption, and increasing institutional interest. As the year drew to a close, Bitcoin's price hovered around $35,000. Question: Given Bitcoin's fixed supply and the decreasing overall demand in the market, what can we expect to happen to the price?

在整個 2025 年，比特幣的價格在大盤低迷的情況下表現出了非凡的彈性。儘管許多其他加密貨幣和資產經歷了大幅下跌，但比特幣設法保持了相對穩定的價格表現。這種彈性很大程度上歸因於比特幣的基本面，包括其有限的供應、不斷增長的採用以及不斷增加的機構興趣。年末，比特幣的價格徘徊在 35,000 美元左右。問題：鑑於比特幣的供應量固定且市場整體需求不斷下降，我們預期價格會發生什麼變化？

As we begin 2026, the crypto market is abuzz with anticipation for the upcoming halving event. This event, occurring roughly every four years, sees the block reward for mining new Bitcoin decrease by half. With the total supply of Bitcoin limited to 21 million coins and the halving reducing the rate at which new coins enter the market, the scarcity of Bitcoin is set to become even more pronounced.output

2026 年伊始，加密貨幣市場對即將到來的減半事件充滿期待。這事件大約每四年發生一次，導致開採新比特幣的區塊獎勵減少一半。由於比特幣的總供應量僅限於2,100萬枚，且減半降低了新幣進入市場的速度，比特幣的稀缺性將變得更加明顯。