比特币：加密货币的崛起

比特币已被证明是现代历史上表现最好的资产之一。加密货币的价值已增加约 1,000 倍

Bitcoin has seen a stellar rise in value over the past decade, emerging from a niche asset to one that is being taken increasingly seriously by governments, financial institutions and investors alike.

过去十年，比特币的价值大幅上涨，从一种利基资产发展成为一种越来越受到政府、金融机构和投资者重视的资产。

Once widely derided as a speculative asset with no intrinsic value, Bitcoin is now being referred to by the US Treasury Department as “digital gold”, thanks to its use as a store of value.

比特币曾经被广泛嘲笑为没有内在价值的投机资产，但由于其作为价值储存手段，现在被美国财政部称为“数字黄金”。

A number of countries have made big bets on the cryptocurrency. El Salvador, for instance, has accumulated some $600m worth of Bitcoin reserves and is one of just a handful of countries, along with the Central African Republic, that accepts the asset as legal tender.

许多国家都在加密货币上下了大赌注。例如，萨尔瓦多已经积累了价值约 6 亿美元的比特币储备，并且是与中非共和国一起接受比特币作为法定货币的少数几个国家之一。

Other countries, including the US and the United Kingdom, have acquired large holdings of Bitcoin through the seizure of assets implicated in criminal activity. The US has seized at least 215,000 Bitcoins, valued at almost $21bn at current prices, since 2020, according to an analysis by crypto firm 21.co.

包括美国和英国在内的其他国家通过扣押涉及犯罪活动的资产获得了大量比特币。根据加密货币公司 21.co 的分析，自 2020 年以来，美国已查获至少 215,000 个比特币，按当前价格计算价值近 210 亿美元。

Bitcoin’s stellar rise, however, has not convinced everyone. Many financial analysts continue to view it as a bubble with little to support its stunning rise.

然而，比特币的大幅上涨并没有让所有人信服。许多金融分析师仍然将其视为泡沫，几乎没有什么支撑其惊人的上涨。

“The more resources Americans misallocate to #Bitcoin and #crypto-related businesses, the fewer resources will be available to devote to making stuff we actually need,” Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Capital, said in a post on X last month.

欧洲太平洋资本 (Euro Pacific Capital) 首席经济学家彼得·希夫 (Peter Schiff) 上个月在 X 上发表的一篇文章中表示：“美国人错误分配给 #Bitcoin 和 #crypto 相关业务的资源越多，可用于生产我们真正需要的东西的资源就越少。” 。

“The end result will be larger trade deficits, a weaker dollar, higher inflation, and a lower standard of living.”

“最终结果将是更大的贸易赤字、美元疲软、通胀上升和生活水平下降。”

Even as Trump’s positive stance towards Bitcoin has thrilled crypto enthusiasts, some pro-crypto governments have reined in their support of the sector.

尽管特朗普对比特币的积极立场令加密货币爱好者兴奋不已，但一些支持加密货币的政府已经限制了对该行业的支持。

El Salvador announced this week that it would privatize or close its cryptocurrency wallet “Chivo” as part of the terms of a $1.4bn loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

萨尔瓦多本周宣布，作为与国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 14 亿美元贷款协议条款的一部分，将私有化或关闭其加密货币钱包“Chivo”。

Bukele’s government also agreed to make acceptance of Bitcoin by businesses voluntary, within steps to assuage the IMF’s concerns about Bitcoin-related risks.

布克莱政府还同意让企业自愿接受比特币，以缓解国际货币基金组织对比特币相关风险的担忧。

Some crypto supporters see governments and central banks taking a leading role in the global march towards digitised money with the development of their own currencies.

一些加密货币支持者认为，随着本国货币的发展，政府和央行在全球数字化货币进程中发挥着主导作用。

Celente of the Trends Research Institute said the US, for example, could create its own digital currency as a way to pay off its federal debt.

趋势研究所的塞伦特表示，例如，美国可以创建自己的数字货币，作为偿还联邦债务的一种方式。

“There’s no way the US can pay off their $36 trillion worth of government debt. They may come up with a new cryptocurrency as part of CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currency),” Celente said.

“美国无法偿还价值 36 万亿美元的政府债务。他们可能会想出一种新的加密货币作为 CBDC（中央银行数字货币）的一部分，”Celente 说。

“You’re seeing more and more of the central banks talking about CBDCs, they’re definitely going to go into that direction,” Celente added.

Celente 补充道：“你会看到越来越多的央行在谈论 CBDC，他们肯定会朝这个方向发展。”

“They’re going to use this as an excuse to come up with a coin because they cannot pay off the debt that they have now. They’re going to say, ‘This [digital currency] is worth a lot more than the dollar, yuan, the euro,’ and use that to pay off their debt.”

“他们会以此为借口发行硬币，因为他们无法偿还现在的债务。他们会说，‘这种[数字货币]比美元、人民币、欧元更值钱’，并用它来偿还债务。”

Some observers have warned that the introduction of CBDCs would open a Pandora’s box of problems related to government control and surveillance of people’s finances.

一些观察家警告说，CBDC 的引入将打开潘多拉魔盒，引发与政府控制和监视人民财务相关的问题。

Trump’s pick for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, is the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, which manages the stockpile of US Treasuries that back Tether, the largest stablecoin by market cap.

特朗普选择的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick) 是 Cantor Fitzgerald 的首席执行官，该公司管理着支持市值最大的稳定币 Tether 的美国国债库存。

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are pegged to a traditional commodity or currency to maintain a stable price. They have reached record volumes of more than $200bn in total market cap.

稳定币是与传统商品或货币挂钩以维持稳定价格的加密货币。它们的总市值已达到创纪录的超过 2000 亿美元。

Sobrado said there could be an opening for Tether to become the national de facto privatised CBDC for the US, and for smaller economies such as the UAE, Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland to issue their own CBDCs.

Sobrado 表示，Tether 可能有机会成为美国事实上的国家私有化 CBDC，而阿联酋、香港、新加坡和瑞士等较小经济体也有机会发行自己的 CBDC。

“The pro-crypto voices and Fed-critical voices have never been louder in the White House,” Sobrado said.

索布拉多表示：“白宫里支持加密货币和批评美联储的声音从未如此之大。”

Celente said he had no doubt that the future of money is digital.

Celente 表示，他毫不怀疑货币的未来是数字化的。

“There’s no question at all,” he affirmed.

“毫无疑问，”他肯定道。