比特幣：加密貨幣的崛起

比特幣已被證明是近代史上表現最好的資產之一。加密貨幣的價值已增加約 1,000 倍

Bitcoin has seen a stellar rise in value over the past decade, emerging from a niche asset to one that is being taken increasingly seriously by governments, financial institutions and investors alike.

過去十年，比特幣的價值大幅上漲，從利基資產發展成為一種越來越受到政府、金融機構和投資者重視的資產。

Once widely derided as a speculative asset with no intrinsic value, Bitcoin is now being referred to by the US Treasury Department as “digital gold”, thanks to its use as a store of value.

比特幣曾經被廣泛嘲笑為沒有內在價值的投機資產，但由於其作為價值儲存手段，現在被美國財政部稱為「數位黃金」。

A number of countries have made big bets on the cryptocurrency. El Salvador, for instance, has accumulated some $600m worth of Bitcoin reserves and is one of just a handful of countries, along with the Central African Republic, that accepts the asset as legal tender.

許多國家都在加密貨幣上下了大賭注。例如，薩爾瓦多已經累積了價值約 6 億美元的比特幣儲備，並且是少數與中非共和國一起接受比特幣作為法定貨幣的國家之一。

Other countries, including the US and the United Kingdom, have acquired large holdings of Bitcoin through the seizure of assets implicated in criminal activity. The US has seized at least 215,000 Bitcoins, valued at almost $21bn at current prices, since 2020, according to an analysis by crypto firm 21.co.

包括美國和英國在內的其他國家透過扣押涉及犯罪活動的資產獲得了大量比特幣。根據加密貨幣公司 21.co 的分析，自 2020 年以來，美國已查獲至少 215,000 個比特幣，以當前價格計算價值近 210 億美元。

Bitcoin’s stellar rise, however, has not convinced everyone. Many financial analysts continue to view it as a bubble with little to support its stunning rise.

然而，比特幣的大幅上漲並沒有讓所有人信服。許多金融分析師仍然將其視為泡沫，幾乎沒有什麼支撐其驚人的上漲。

“The more resources Americans misallocate to #Bitcoin and #crypto-related businesses, the fewer resources will be available to devote to making stuff we actually need,” Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Capital, said in a post on X last month.

歐洲太平洋資本(Euro Pacific Capital) 首席經濟學家彼得·希夫(Peter Schiff) 上個月在X 上發表的一篇文章中表示：「美國人錯誤分配給#Bitcoin 和#crypto 相關業務的資源越多，可用於生產我們真正需要的東西的資源就越少。

“The end result will be larger trade deficits, a weaker dollar, higher inflation, and a lower standard of living.”

“最終結果將是更大的貿易赤字、美元疲軟、通膨上升和生活水平下降。”

Even as Trump’s positive stance towards Bitcoin has thrilled crypto enthusiasts, some pro-crypto governments have reined in their support of the sector.

儘管川普對比特幣的積極立場令加密貨幣愛好者興奮不已，但一些支持加密貨幣的政府已經限制了對該行業的支持。

El Salvador announced this week that it would privatize or close its cryptocurrency wallet “Chivo” as part of the terms of a $1.4bn loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

薩爾瓦多本周宣布，作為與國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 14 億美元貸款協議條款的一部分，將私有化或關閉其加密貨幣錢包「Chivo」。

Bukele’s government also agreed to make acceptance of Bitcoin by businesses voluntary, within steps to assuage the IMF’s concerns about Bitcoin-related risks.

布克萊政府也同意讓企業自願接受比特幣，以緩解國際貨幣基金組織對比特幣相關風險的擔憂。

Some crypto supporters see governments and central banks taking a leading role in the global march towards digitised money with the development of their own currencies.

一些加密貨幣支持者認為，隨著本國貨幣的發展，政府和央行在全球數位化貨幣進程中發揮主導作用。

Celente of the Trends Research Institute said the US, for example, could create its own digital currency as a way to pay off its federal debt.

趨勢研究所的塞倫特表示，例如，美國可以創建自己的數位貨幣，作為償還聯邦債務的一種方式。

“There’s no way the US can pay off their $36 trillion worth of government debt. They may come up with a new cryptocurrency as part of CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currency),” Celente said.

「美國無法償還價值 36 兆美元的政府債務。他們可能會想出一種新的加密貨幣作為 CBDC（中央銀行數位貨幣）的一部分，」Celente 說。

“You’re seeing more and more of the central banks talking about CBDCs, they’re definitely going to go into that direction,” Celente added.

Celente 補充道：“你會看到越來越多的央行在談論 CBDC，他們肯定會朝這個方向發展。”

“They’re going to use this as an excuse to come up with a coin because they cannot pay off the debt that they have now. They’re going to say, ‘This [digital currency] is worth a lot more than the dollar, yuan, the euro,’ and use that to pay off their debt.”

「他們會以此為藉口發行硬幣，因為他們無法償還現在的債務。他們會說，‘這種[數字貨幣]比美元、人民幣、歐元更值錢’，並用它來償還債務。

Some observers have warned that the introduction of CBDCs would open a Pandora’s box of problems related to government control and surveillance of people’s finances.

一些觀察家警告說，CBDC 的引入將打開潘朵拉魔盒，引發與政府控制和監視人民財務相關的問題。

Trump’s pick for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, is the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, which manages the stockpile of US Treasuries that back Tether, the largest stablecoin by market cap.

川普選擇的商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克 (Howard Lutnick) 是 Cantor Fitzgerald 的首席執行官，該公司管理著支持市值最大的穩定幣 Tether 的美國國債庫存。

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are pegged to a traditional commodity or currency to maintain a stable price. They have reached record volumes of more than $200bn in total market cap.

穩定幣是與傳統商品或貨幣掛鉤以維持穩定價格的加密貨幣。它們的總市值已達到創紀錄的超過 2000 億美元。

Sobrado said there could be an opening for Tether to become the national de facto privatised CBDC for the US, and for smaller economies such as the UAE, Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland to issue their own CBDCs.

Sobrado 表示，Tether 可能有機會成為美國事實上的國家私有化 CBDC，而阿聯酋、香港、新加坡和瑞士等較小經濟體也有機會發行自己的 CBDC。

“The pro-crypto voices and Fed-critical voices have never been louder in the White House,” Sobrado said.

索布拉多表示：“白宮裡支持加密貨幣和批評聯準會的聲音從未如此之大。”

Celente said he had no doubt that the future of money is digital.

Celente 表示，他毫不懷疑貨幣的未來是數位化的。

“There’s no question at all,” he affirmed.

「毫無疑問，」他肯定道。