以太坊（ETH）市场价值与已实现价值（MVRV）比率闪烁看跌信号

链上的数据显示，以太坊的市场价值与已实现价值（MVRV）的比率刚刚看到了一个信号，该信号可以证明是对ETH的看跌。

On-chain data shows the Ethereum Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has just seen a signal that could prove to be bearish for ETH’s price.

链上的数据显示，以太坊的市场价值与已实现价值（MVRV）的比率刚刚看到了一个信号，该信号可以证明是对ETH的看跌。

Ethereum MVRV Momentum Has Witnessed A Bearish Crossover

以太坊MVRV动量目睹了看跌的跨界

As pointed out by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, the Ethereum MVRV Ratio has declined under its 160-day moving average (MA) recently. The “MVRV Ratio” refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Ethereum market cap and the realized cap.

正如分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）在X上的一篇新帖子中指出的那样，以太坊MVRV比率最近以其160天的移动平均线（MA）下降。 “ MVRV比率”是指一个链指标，该指标跟踪以太坊市值与已实现的上限之间的比率。

The realized cap here is a capitalization model that calculates ETH’s total valuation by assuming that the ‘real’ value of each token in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain.

这里已实现的上限是一个大写模型，该模型通过假设每个令牌的“真实”值等于最后转移在区块链上的现货价格，从而计算ETH的总估值。

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Since the last transaction of any coin is likely to correspond to the last point at which it changed hands, the Realized Cap essentially measures the sum of the cost basis of the circulating supply. This model could also be looked at as a representation of the amount of capital the investors as whole have put into Ethereum. In contrast, the market cap is the value that the holders are carrying right now.

由于任何硬币的最后一次交易都可能与易人易手的最后一点相对应，因此已实现的上限基本上衡量了循环供应的成本基础的总和。该模型也可以视为代表整个投资者所投入以太坊的资本数量的代表。相比之下，市值是持有人现在携带的价值。

When the value of the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1, it means the market cap is greater than the realized cap. Such a trend implies the investors as a whole are sitting on unrealized gains. On the other hand, the metric being under the mark suggests the holders are carrying a lower value than they initially put in, so the average investor could be considered underwater.

当MVRV比率的价值大于1时，这意味着市值大于已实现的上限。这样的趋势意味着整个投资者都坐在未实现的收益上。另一方面，标准处于标记之下，表明持有人的价值低于最初的价值，因此普通的投资者可以被视为水下。

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Ethereum MVRV Ratio, as well as its 160-day MA, over the past year:

现在，这是分析师共享的图表，该图表显示了以太坊MVRV比率及其160天的MA的趋势：

As is visible in the above graph, the Ethereum MVRV Ratio has registered a decline recently as ETH’s price has followed a bearish trajectory. The indicator is still above the 1 mark after this drawdown, suggesting the overall market remains in the green.

如上图中可见的那样，由于ETH的价格遵循看跌轨迹，以太坊MVRV比率最近下降了。该缩减后的指标仍高于1分，这表明整个市场仍处于绿色状态。

The metric’s fall, however, has meant that it has slipped under its 160-day MA. The combination of the indicator’s daily value and its 160-day is known as the MVRV Momentum. In the chart, Martinez has highlighted what happened the last time the MVRV Momentum showed a similar pattern as recently.

但是，该指标的跌倒意味着它已经在其160天的MA下滑倒。指标的每日值及其160天的组合称为MVRV动量。在图表中，马丁内斯（Martinez）强调了MVRV动量最近显示与最近相似的模式时发生的事情。

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It would appear that the MVRV Ratio crossing under its 160-day MA led to a 40% price correction for Ethereum last year. It now remains to be seen whether the negative momentum in the indicator would also prove to be bearish for the cryptocurrency this time as well or not.

看来，MVRV比率在其160天的MA下穿越，导致去年以太坊的价格校正了40％。现在，指示器中的负动量是否也被证明对这次加密货币也是看跌。

ETH Price

ETH价格

At the time of writing, Ethereum is floating around $3,200, up more than 2% over the last seven days.

在撰写本文时，以太坊的漂浮量约为3,200美元，在过去的七天中增长了2％以上。