比特币零售需求 30 天变化处于历史红色水平

链上数据显示，尽管比特币涨势再创新高，但散户投资者的需求近期仍处于较低水平。

Fresh data from the chain shows that retail investor demand has remained low despite Bitcoin’s recent rally to a new all-time high (ATH).

该链的最新数据显示，尽管比特币最近反弹至历史新高（ATH），但散户投资者的需求仍然较低。

In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant analyzed the 30-day change in Bitcoin Retail Investor Demand, an on-chain indicator that measures demand for the cryptocurrency among retail investors.

在最近的一项分析中，CryptoQuant 分析了比特币散户投资者需求的 30 天变化，这是衡量散户投资者对加密货币需求的链上指标。

The indicator uses the transaction volume of moves valued at less than $10,000 to track activity related to this cohort, as retail investors are the smallest of holders on the network.

该指标使用价值低于 10,000 美元的交易量来跟踪与该群体相关的活动，因为散户投资者是网络上最小的持有者。

The chart below shows the trend in Bitcoin Retail Investor Demand 30-day change over the last few years.

下图显示了过去几年比特币散户投资者需求30天的变化趋势。

According to the chart, Bitcoin Retail Investor Demand noted a sharp positive monthly change during the price bull run past $100,000 last year.

根据该图表，比特币散户投资者需求在去年价格牛市超过 10 万美元期间出现了急剧的月度积极变化。

This indicates that the volume of these small holders saw a sharp uptick. This isn’t anything out of the ordinary, as this group tends to find sharp price action exciting, so their transfer activity usually increases during rallies.

这表明这些小农户的交易量急剧增加。这并不是什么不寻常的事情，因为这个群体往往会发现剧烈的价格走势令人兴奋，因此他们的转移活动通常会在反弹期间增加。

However, the scale of the spike was something extraordinary, as it dwarfed any other high in the indicator from the last few years. From the chart, it’s clear that this peak in the indicator occurred near the price top.

然而，飙升的规模却非同寻常，因为它使过去几年该指标的任何其他高点都相形见绌。从图表中可以清楚地看出，该指标的峰值出现在价格顶部附近。

In fact, all of the previous large spikes that the analyst has highlighted also took place around some sort of a top in the cryptocurrency. So it would appear that an excessive amount of Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) from the retail investors is something that has been bearish for price rallies.

事实上，分析师强调的所有之前的大幅上涨也都发生在加密货币的某种顶部附近。因此，散户投资者过多的“害怕错过”（FOMO）似乎对价格上涨不利。

Since last year’s spike, Bitcoin Retail Investor Demand has seen its 30-day change undergo a sharp reversal. The metric has now not only fallen into the negative territory, but has also actually reached a historical low of -22%.

自去年飙升以来，比特币散户投资者需求的 30 天变化发生了急剧逆转。该指标现在不仅跌入负值，而且实际上还达到了-22%的历史低点。

Interestingly, the indicator’s downtrend has continued despite Bitcoin’s price rally to the new ATH. As such, it would seem that the retail investors haven’t yet started pouring back into the cryptocurrency.

有趣的是，尽管比特币价格上涨至新的 ATH，但该指标的下降趋势仍在继续。因此，散户投资者似乎还没有开始涌入加密货币。

Given the historical pattern where FOMO is shown to be fatal for rallies, this lack of optimism among the retail cohort may allow the current run to continue for a bit longer.

考虑到 FOMO 对反弹来说是致命的历史模式，散户群体中缺乏乐观情绪可能会让当前的涨势持续更长时间。

BTC Price

比特币价格

At the moment, Bitcoin is trading around $106,400, having risen by more than 15% over the last week.

目前，比特币交易价格约为 106,400 美元，上周上涨超过 15%。