比特幣零售需求 30 天變化處於歷史紅色水平

鏈上數據顯示，儘管比特幣漲勢再創新高，但散戶的需求近期仍處於較低水準。

Fresh data from the chain shows that retail investor demand has remained low despite Bitcoin’s recent rally to a new all-time high (ATH).

該鏈的最新數據顯示，儘管比特幣最近反彈至歷史新高（ATH），但散戶投資者的需求仍然較低。

In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant analyzed the 30-day change in Bitcoin Retail Investor Demand, an on-chain indicator that measures demand for the cryptocurrency among retail investors.

在最近的一項分析中，CryptoQuant 分析了比特幣散戶投資者需求的 30 天變化，這是衡量散戶投資者對加密貨幣需求的鏈上指標。

The indicator uses the transaction volume of moves valued at less than $10,000 to track activity related to this cohort, as retail investors are the smallest of holders on the network.

該指標使用價值低於 10,000 美元的交易量來追蹤與該群體相關的活動，因為散戶投資者是網路上最小的持有者。

The chart below shows the trend in Bitcoin Retail Investor Demand 30-day change over the last few years.

下圖顯示了過去幾年比特幣散戶需求30天的變化趨勢。

According to the chart, Bitcoin Retail Investor Demand noted a sharp positive monthly change during the price bull run past $100,000 last year.

根據該圖表，比特幣散戶需求在去年價格多頭超過 10 萬美元期間出現了急劇的月度積極變化。

This indicates that the volume of these small holders saw a sharp uptick. This isn’t anything out of the ordinary, as this group tends to find sharp price action exciting, so their transfer activity usually increases during rallies.

這顯示這些小農戶的交易量急劇增加。這並不是什麼不尋常的事情，因為這個群體往往會發現劇烈的價格走勢令人興奮，因此他們的轉移活動通常會在反彈期間增加。

However, the scale of the spike was something extraordinary, as it dwarfed any other high in the indicator from the last few years. From the chart, it’s clear that this peak in the indicator occurred near the price top.

然而，飆升的規模卻非同尋常，因為它使過去幾年該指標的任何其他高點都相形見絀。從圖表中可以清楚看出，該指標的峰值出現在價格頂部附近。

In fact, all of the previous large spikes that the analyst has highlighted also took place around some sort of a top in the cryptocurrency. So it would appear that an excessive amount of Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) from the retail investors is something that has been bearish for price rallies.

事實上，分析師強調的所有先前的大幅上漲也都發生在加密貨幣的某種頂部附近。因此，散戶投資者過多的「害怕錯過」（FOMO）似乎對價格上漲不利。

Since last year’s spike, Bitcoin Retail Investor Demand has seen its 30-day change undergo a sharp reversal. The metric has now not only fallen into the negative territory, but has also actually reached a historical low of -22%.

自去年飆升以來，比特幣散戶投資者需求的 30 天變化發生了急劇逆轉。該指標現在不僅跌入負值，而且實際上還達到了-22%的歷史低點。

Interestingly, the indicator’s downtrend has continued despite Bitcoin’s price rally to the new ATH. As such, it would seem that the retail investors haven’t yet started pouring back into the cryptocurrency.

有趣的是，儘管比特幣價格上漲至新的 ATH，但該指標的下降趨勢仍在繼續。因此，散戶似乎還沒有開始湧入加密貨幣。

Given the historical pattern where FOMO is shown to be fatal for rallies, this lack of optimism among the retail cohort may allow the current run to continue for a bit longer.

考慮到 FOMO 對反彈來說是致命的歷史模式，散戶群體中缺乏樂觀情緒可能會讓當前的漲勢持續更長時間。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

At the moment, Bitcoin is trading around $106,400, having risen by more than 15% over the last week.

目前，比特幣交易價格約為 106,400 美元，上週上漲超過 15%。