比特币不能替代黄金

黄金的市值约为1900000000000美元，即使在最乐观的情况下，比特币（$ btc）也差不多。

Author: AlΞx Wacy

作者：AlξxWacy

Compiled by: TechFlow

编译者：TechFlow

Bitcoin cannot replace gold.

比特币不能替代黄金。

Gold has a market cap of about $19 trillion, and even in the most optimistic scenarios, Bitcoin is nowhere near touching. Digital gold? Yes. Real gold? Forget it.

黄金的市值约为19万亿美元，即使在最乐观的情况下，比特币也差不多。数字黄金？是的。真正的黄金？忘了它。

Market liquidity is decreasing.

市场流动性正在下降。

Spot ETFs have attracted institutional money, but retail liquidity is drying up. Market enthusiasm alone is not enough to support the next stage of development.

现场ETF吸引了机构资金，但零售流动性正在枯竭。仅市场热情不足以支持下一阶段的发展。

Popularization has not yet begun.

普遍尚未开始。

While cryptocurrency is frequently in the news, actual real-world applications remain limited. It remains primarily a playground for speculators rather than an everyday financial tool.

尽管新闻中经常是加密货币，但实际的现实应用程序仍然有限。它主要是投机者而不是日常财务工具的操场。

The dream of decentralization is shattered.

权力下放的梦想破灭了。

The dream of a fully decentralized cryptocurrency is fading. Today, centralized exchanges, regulators, and big money players are in control.

完全分散的加密货币的梦想正在消失。如今，集中的交流，监管机构和大笔资金参与者正在控制。

Funds are moving away from crypto investments.

资金正在摆脱加密投资。

Despite unprecedented government support and growing legitimacy for the industry, venture capital investment in crypto projects is below levels seen during the 2017-2018 boom.

尽管政府的前所未有的支持和对该行业的合法性日益增长，但对加密项目的风险投资投资仍低于2017-2018繁荣时期的水平。

Solana will surpass Ethereum.

Solana将超越以太坊。

Solana is faster, cheaper, and growing rapidly in NFT, DeFi, and meme coins. Ethereum struggles with high fees and internal chaos. It's a matter of when, not if.

Solana在NFT，Defi和Meme Coins中更快，便宜，并且迅速生长。以太坊以高费用和内部混乱而挣扎。这是何时的问题，而不是。

NFTs Are Dead.

NFT已死。

The craze of PFP (avatar NFT) has passed. Without practical application scenarios, NFT will not be able to recover unless new use cases emerge.

PFP（Avatar NFT）的热潮已经过去。没有实际的应用程序方案，除非出现新的用例，否则NFT将无法恢复。

Retail investors are the “takers”.

散户投资者是“接受者”。

Smart money entered the market early and sold to retail investors at a high point, but most people ultimately failed to make a profit.

Smart Money尽早进入市场，并在高点出售给散户投资者，但大多数人最终未能获利。

If Solana doesn’t have a new “explosion point”, it will be difficult to hit a new high.

如果Solana没有新的“爆炸点”，那么很难达到新的高位。

Meme coins have been the biggest catalyst for $SOL. Without a new wave of enthusiasm, market attention will gradually fade.

模因硬币一直是$ SOL的最大催化剂。没有新的热情，市场的关注将逐渐消失。

The next wave of AI agents is coming.

下一波AI代理人即将到来。

While the first wave of AI agents are just chatbots, more advanced technologies are coming that will change the way we interact with cryptocurrencies.

虽然第一波AI代理只是聊天机器人，但更高级的技术将会改变我们与加密货币互动的方式。

Market cycles and indicators no longer work.

市场周期和指标不再起作用。

Traditional market cycles? Technical analysis (TA) model? Today, the market is more influenced by liquidity games and macro events.

传统的市场周期？技术分析（TA）模型？如今，市场受到流动性游戏和宏观活动的影响。

The fuel for the altcoin season has run out.

Altcoin季节的燃料已经用完了。

Money is no longer flowing into the altcoin market like it once did. Without new capital infusions, a full-blown altseason may never happen.

金钱不再像以前那样流入Altcoin市场。没有新的资本输注，可能永远不会发生全面的季前赛。

Bitcoin could drop to $40,000.

比特币可能会降至40,000美元。

Yes, such a deep correction is possible. Market structure and liquidity suggest that a major correction is brewing.

是的，可以进行如此深刻的纠正。市场结构和流动性表明正在酿造重大更正。

Trump is not a silver lining for the crypto market.

特朗普不是加密货币市场的一线希望。

The market has performed better under Biden. Trump's policies may be more favorable to institutions rather than retail investors.

在拜登（Biden）的领导下，市场表现更好。特朗普的政策可能对机构而不是散户投资者更有利。

GameFi is about to have a renaissance.

Gamefi即将进行文艺复兴。

Web3 games are gradually maturing. If Grand Theft Auto 6 integrates blockchain technology, it may completely change the gaming industry.

Web3游戏逐渐成熟。如果Grand Theft Auto 6集成了区块链技术，则可能会完全改变游戏行业。

SocialFi will become the next wave of trend.

Socialfi将成为下一波趋势。

Tokenized communities, interactive rewards, and content monetization will become the inevitable development direction.

令牌化的社区，互动奖励和内容货币化将成为不可避免的发展方向。

Complex technology is no longer the hot topic in this cycle.

复杂的技术不再是这个周期中的热门话题。

The simpler the project, the more popular it is. Artificial Intelligence (AI), Decentralized Internet of Things (DePIN), and Real World Assets (RWA) are easy to understand, but modular blockchains are not.

项目越简单，它越受欢迎。人工智能（AI），分散的物联网（DEPIN）和现实世界资产（RWA）易于理解，但模块化区块链却不是。

Binance's new listings no longer mean a surge.

Binance的新列表不再意味着激增。

Most of the new coins listed on Binance eventually fall. The hype cycle of the market has changed.

二元上列出的大多数新硬币最终都会倒下。市场的炒作周期发生了变化。

A full-blown altcoin season may never return.

成熟的Altcoin赛季可能永远不会回来。

Yes, some altcoins may see 10x or even 100x gains, but a huge rally covering all altcoins? Almost impossible.

是的，有些AltCoins可能会看到10倍甚至100倍的收益，但是覆盖所有山寨币的巨大集会？几乎不可能。

Crypto markets never work as expected.

加密市场永远无法正常工作。

If you think you have it all figured out, the market will prove you wrong. Adapt or be eliminated.

如果您认为自己已经弄清楚了，那么市场将证明您是错误的。适应或被淘汰。