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链上的数据显示,比特币实现的CAP最近飙升至新的历史高(ATH),但每月流入率大大减慢。
On-chain data reveals that the Bitcoin Realized Cap has recently touched a new all-time high (ATH), but monthly inflows into the cryptocurrency have slowed down considerably.
链上的数据显示,比特币实现的CAP最近触及了新的历史最高(ATH),但是每月流入加密货币的流入大大减慢了。
According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the Realized Cap of Bitcoin has just reached a new peak.
根据链分析公司玻璃节的数据,已实现的比特币帽刚刚达到了一个新的峰值。
The “Realized Cap” is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that calculates the asset’s total value by assuming the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the network.
“已实现的上限”是比特币的资本化模型,它通过假设流通中的任何令牌的“真实”值等于上次在网络上进行交易的现货价格,可以计算资产的总价值。
The last transaction of a given coin is likely to represent the last point at which it changed hands, so the price at the time of the move would denote the coin’s current cost basis.
给定硬币的最后一次交易可能代表了它易手的最后一点,因此移动时的价格表示硬币的当前成本基础。
As the Realized Cap sums up this acquisition value for all tokens part of the circulating supply, it essentially determines the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase Bitcoin.
当已实现的上限总结了循环供应的所有代币部分的此收购价值时,它实际上决定了投资者整体用于购买比特币的资本数量。
Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in its value over the last few years:
现在,这是分析公司共享的指标的图表,该图表显示了过去几年其价值的趋势:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realizzed Cap has been following an uptrend for a while now. Whenever the indicator’s value rises, it means a net amount of capital is flowing into the cryptocurrency. Thus, the long-term surge would imply BTC has been enjoying continuous inflows.
如上图所示,比特币Realizz的帽子已经遵循上升趋势了一段时间。每当指标的价值上升时,这意味着净资本正在流入加密货币。因此,长期激增将意味着BTC一直在享受连续的流入。
That said, while capital has been flowing in without break, the growth rate has fluctuated over the cycle. From the chart, it’s visible that the Realized Cap saw a particularly sharp rise during two periods: Q1 2024 and Q4 2024.
也就是说,尽管资本一直在没有破裂的情况下流入,但在整个周期中的增长率却波动。从图表中可以看到,在两个时期,已实现的帽子出现了特别急剧的上升:Q1 2024和Q4 2024。
The Q1 2024 phase was followed by a rapid slowdown in capital inflowsm and so far, it would appear that the Q4 2024 one has been seeing something similar. At the height of inflows in December, the growth rate of the metric stood at around 13% per month. Today, this value has declined to just 0.9% per month.
第二季度2024阶段之后是资本流入迅速放缓,到目前为止,似乎第四季度2024年已经看到了类似的东西。在12月流入的高峰期,公制的增长率约为每月13%。如今,该价值每月仅下降到0.9%。
Growth is still continuing, of course, and the indicator has managed to set a new record of $872 billion. But as Glassnode has explained, the slowdown could indicate “investor appetite is softening – signaling continued risk-off sentiment.”
当然,增长仍在继续,该指标已设法创造了8720亿美元的新记录。但是,正如GlassNode所解释的那样,放缓可能表明“投资者的食欲正在减弱 - 信号持续的冒险情绪。”
Both the periods of fresh capital inflows last year coincided with bull rallies for Bitcoin, while the phase of slowdown in between the two resulted in bearish consolidation for the cryptocurrency.
去年,新的资本流入时期的两个时期都与比特币的公牛集会相吻合,而两者之间的放缓阶段导致了加密货币的看跌巩固。
The latest drop in Realized Cap growth has so far resulted in a notable drawdown for the asset’s price. Given the trend of last year, it’s possible that a proper reversal may not happen for BTC until the metric catches a sharper uptrend.
迄今为止,最新的已实现的CAP增长已导致资产的价格显着降低。鉴于去年的趋势,直到度量标准捕获更新的上升趋势之前,BTC可能不会发生适当的逆转。
BTC Price
BTC价格
Bitcoin has taken to sideways movement over the last few days as its price is still floating around the $84,700 mark.
在过去的几天里,比特币的价格仍在84,700美元左右。
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