比特币现在对黄金作为“避险”资产的地位构成真正的挑战

过去几个月，比特币与黄金展开了激烈的竞争，不仅在金融市场的价格和表现方面，而且在吸引机构和投资者的关注方面。

Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable surge in popularity among institutional investors, presenting a formidable challenge to gold's status as a "haven" asset during times of economic and geopolitical turmoil.

比特币在机构投资者中的受欢迎程度显着飙升，在经济和地缘政治动荡时期对黄金作为“避险”资产的地位构成了巨大挑战。

A significant portion of this shift can be attributed to the increasing availability of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in U.S. markets. These ETFs now hold over 1.13 million Bitcoin, with a total value exceeding $121.83 billion.

这种转变的很大一部分可归因于美国市场上比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的可用性不断增加。这些ETF目前持有超过113万枚比特币，总价值超过1218.3亿美元。

To put this into perspective, Bitcoin ETFs now account for 88% of the assets managed by gold ETFs in the U.S. stock market, highlighting a substantial change in how both assets are viewed as investment vehicles.

从这个角度来看，比特币 ETF 目前占美国股市黄金 ETF 管理资产的 88%，突显出这两种资产被视为投资工具的方式发生了重大变化。

This trend aligns with the growing narrative of "digital gold," where some believe that Bitcoin could eventually replace gold, particularly given its increasing appeal amid geopolitical and economic tensions.

这一趋势与“数字黄金”的不断增长的叙述相一致，一些人认为比特币最终可能取代黄金，特别是考虑到它在地缘政治和经济紧张局势中越来越有吸引力。

In my opinion, Bitcoin now serves not only as an attractive option for institutional investors but also as a hedge against inflation and financial crises, roles that gold has traditionally fulfilled.

在我看来，比特币现在不仅对机构投资者来说是一个有吸引力的选择，而且还可以作为对冲通胀和金融危机的工具，而这正是黄金传统上扮演的角色。

Several key developments have further contributed to Bitcoin's rise to prominence.

几个关键的发展进一步促进了比特币的崛起。

Major financial institutions, such as Bitfinex and Binance, continue to encourage and direct massive investments towards Bitcoin, signalling a shift towards cryptocurrencies as mainstream assets.

Bitfinex 和 Binance 等主要金融机构继续鼓励和引导大规模投资比特币，标志着加密货币作为主流资产的转变。

In the first week of December 2024, over $2.167 billion was channelled into Bitcoin ETFs, showcasing the high level of confidence investors have in the "digital gold."

2024 年 12 月的第一周，超过 21.67 亿美元流入比特币 ETF，显示了投资者对“数字黄金”的高度信心。

Undoubtedly, these investments also align with forecasts that Bitcoin's price could reach $130,000 to $150,000 by mid-2025.

毫无疑问，这些投资也符合比特币价格到 2025 年中期可能达到 13 万至 15 万美元的预测。

Moreover, I don't think we can overlook the significant role played by the newly elected U.S. President, Donald Trump, in boosting Bitcoin's position.

此外，我认为我们不能忽视新当选的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在提升比特币地位方面所发挥的重要作用。

Not only did he announce support for cryptocurrencies, but he also proposed the idea of establishing a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, which would solidify Bitcoin's status on the global stage and give it broader acceptance as a strategic asset in national reserves.

他不仅宣布支持加密货币，还提出了建立美国比特币战略储备的想法，这将巩固比特币在全球舞台上的地位，并使其作为国家储备中的战略资产得到更广泛的接受。

This announcement also reflects a major shift towards integrating cryptocurrencies into national financial policies.

这一公告还反映出将加密货币纳入国家金融政策的重大转变。

While the actual implementation of this idea may take time, merely contemplating it demonstrates a strategic optimism regarding Bitcoin's role in the global economy.

虽然这一想法的实际实施可能需要时间，但仅仅考虑一下它就表明了对比特币在全球经济中的作用的战略乐观态度。

On the traditional markets side, we've seen how MicroStrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index has helped increase capital flows into Bitcoin.

在传统市场方面，我们已经看到 MicroStrategy 被纳入纳斯达克 100 指数如何帮助增加了流入比特币的资本。

This listing of a giant company, which is one of the largest Bitcoin holders in the world, enhances institutional confidence in Bitcoin and reflects the ongoing evolution of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system.

作为全球最大的比特币持有者之一的巨头公司的上市增强了机构对比特币的信心，并反映了加密货币向传统金融体系的持续演变。

These moves, including rebalancing investment portfolios to include MicroStrategy shares, could, in my view, lead to further capital flows into Bitcoin, supporting it against any future market fluctuations.

在我看来，这些举措，包括重新平衡投资组合以纳入 MicroStrategy 股票，可能会导致资金进一步流入比特币，从而支持比特币应对未来的市场波动。

Additionally, I believe Bitcoin is on its way to achieving new levels of growth, with markets closely watching the psychological level of $110,000.

此外，我相信比特币正在实现新的增长水平，市场密切关注 110,000 美元的心理水平。

This transition, which is very close at present, reflects how Bitcoin is experiencing increased acceptance and interest, which could lead to a radical shift in financial markets.

目前这一转变已经非常接近，反映出比特币的接受度和兴趣正在增加，这可能会导致金融市场发生根本性转变。

However, despite the strong optimism, there is growing caution about market volatility, as profit-taking and speculative trading could cause sharp price fluctuations in the short term.

然而，尽管市场乐观情绪强烈，但人们对市场波动的担忧日益谨慎，因为获利了结和投机交易可能会导致短期内价格大幅波动。

Looking ahead, Bitcoin will remain a central topic in financial markets and the global economy.

展望未来，比特币仍将是金融市场和全球经济的中心话题。

With the strategic moves by major financial institutions and governments, Bitcoin appears to be a true alternative to gold in certain aspects.

随着主要金融机构和政府的战略举措，比特币在某些方面似乎成为黄金的真正替代品。

However, it remains to be seen whether this confidence in "digital gold" will persist or face new challenges over time.

然而，这种对“数字黄金”的信心是否会持续下去，还是随着时间的推移而面临新的挑战，还有待观察。

What is certain for me is that Bitcoin has begun to define its role in the global economy, and its impact on financial markets will not be easy to ignore shortly.

对我来说可以肯定的是，比特币已经开始定义它在全球经济中的作用，并且它对金融市场的影响短期内不会轻易被忽视。