新研究报告发现比特币是“最纯粹的流动性晴雨表”

山姆·卡拉汉 (Sam Callahan) 最近受林恩·奥尔登 (Lyn Alden) 委托撰写的一份研究报告探讨了比特币价格与全球流动性之间的紧密相关性。

Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Sam Callahan has recently unveiled his findings in a research report commissioned by Lyn Alden, revealing a strong correlation between Bitcoin's price and global liquidity.

著名加密货币分析师 Sam Callahan 最近在 Lyn Alden 委托的一份研究报告中公布了他的发现，揭示了比特币价格与全球流动性之间的密切相关性。

Callahan, known for his expertise in Bitcoin and his role as Lead Analyst at Swan Bitcoin, highlights that Bitcoin's price follows global liquidity trends for an impressive 83% of any 12-month period, outpacing other major asset classes in this regard.

Callahan 以其在比特币方面的专业知识和 Swan Bitcoin 首席分析师的身份而闻名，他强调，比特币的价格在任何 12 个月的时间内有 83% 的时间遵循全球流动性趋势，在这方面超过了其他主要资产类别。

According to Callahan's analysis, Bitcoin's correlation with liquidity remains evident, although it can experience temporary deviations, especially during periods of extreme price movements. By combining global liquidity with on-chain Bitcoin metrics, a deeper understanding of Bitcoin's price cycles and potential investment opportunities can be gained.

根据卡拉汉的分析，比特币与流动性的相关性仍然很明显，尽管它可能会出现暂时的偏差，特别是在价格极端波动期间。通过将全球流动性与链上比特币指标相结合，可以更深入地了解比特币的价格周期和潜在的投资机会。

Callahan emphasizes the significance of tracking global M2, a broad measure of money supply, as a key indicator of liquidity conditions. He employs global M2 from major economies as a proxy for liquidity, considering the dollar's role as the global reserve currency and the fact that dollar-denominated M2 serves as a reliable metric.

卡拉汉强调了追踪全球 M2（货币供应量的广泛衡量标准）作为流动性状况关键指标的重要性。考虑到美元作为全球储备货币的作用以及以美元计价的 M2 作为可靠指标的事实，他采用主要经济体的全球 M2 作为流动性的代理。

Callahan's findings indicate that Bitcoin's price tends to increase during periods of expanding liquidity and decrease during periods of contracting liquidity, highlighting Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity conditions.

卡拉汉的研究结果表明，比特币的价格往往在流动性扩张期间上涨，而在流动性收缩期间下降，凸显了比特币对流动性状况的敏感性。

Callahan further highlights that Bitcoin aligns more closely with liquidity trends compared to traditional assets like stocks, gold, and bonds. He explains that while stocks correlate with liquidity, they are also influenced by earnings and passive inflows, rendering their relationship with liquidity less direct than Bitcoin's. Gold, on the other hand, is sensitive to liquidity but is also viewed as a safe-haven asset, resulting in a more mixed correlation.

卡拉汉进一步强调，与股票、黄金和债券等传统资产相比，比特币更符合流动性趋势。他解释说，虽然股票与流动性相关，但它们也受到收益和被动资金流入的影响，这使得它们与流动性的关系不如比特币那么直接。另一方面，黄金对流动性敏感，但也被视为避险资产，导致相关性更加复杂。

Callahan identifies Bitcoin as the "purest liquidity barometer" due to the absence of earnings or dividends that can impact stocks and the lack of a safe-haven designation like gold or bonds. This characteristic makes Bitcoin more responsive to liquidity changes, rendering it a suitable investment for those seeking to track liquidity conditions.

卡拉汉将比特币视为“最纯粹的流动性晴雨表”，因为比特币没有可能影响股票的收益或股息，也没有黄金或债券等避险资产。这一特性使得比特币对流动性变化的反应更加灵敏，使其成为那些寻求跟踪流动性状况的人的合适投资。

However, Callahan cautions that Bitcoin's correlation with liquidity can weaken in the short term due to internal market dynamics or idiosyncratic events. He cites examples like the Mt. Gox collapse and the 2020 COVID-19 crash, where Bitcoin's price diverged from liquidity trends.

然而，卡拉汉警告说，由于内部市场动态或特殊事件，比特币与流动性的相关性可能在短期内减弱。他引用了 Mt. Gox 崩盘和 2020 年 COVID-19 崩盘等例子，其中比特币的价格偏离了流动性趋势。

Callahan concludes by highlighting the value of combining liquidity metrics with on-chain valuation tools like Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score, which tracks over- or undervaluation based on historical price data, to gain a deeper understanding of Bitcoin's cycles. This approach, he maintains, can aid investors in predicting when Bitcoin may decouple from liquidity trends and identify optimal timing for entering or exiting the market.

Callahan 最后强调了将流动性指标与比特币 MVRV Z 得分等链​​上估值工具相结合的价值，该工具根据历史价格数据跟踪估值过高或过低，以更深入地了解比特币的周期。他认为，这种方法可以帮助投资者预测比特币何时可能与流动性趋势脱钩，并确定进入或退出市场的最佳时机。