在减半和机构采用的推动下，比特币预计将飙升至 20 万美元

比特币价格预测：即将达到 20 万美元？在最近的一次采访中，Skybridge Capital 的 Anthony Scaramucci 预测，在即将到来的减半事件之后，比特币的价格可能会飙升至 20 万美元。尽管存在市场波动和地缘政治不确定性，但他指出强劲的需求动态以及比特币在传统金融产品中的日益采用是这一看涨前景的关键驱动因素。斯卡拉穆奇强调长期投资视野的重要性，与早期互联网时代相似，并强调比特币在市场低迷时的弹性。

Bitcoin Projected to Reach $200,000, Fueled by Halving Event and Institutional Adoption

在减半事件和机构采用的推动下，比特币预计将达到 20 万美元

In a recent interview, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, has made a bold prediction: the price of Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 following the upcoming halving event. This forecast comes amidst ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency markets, fueled by geopolitical tensions and broader economic uncertainty.

Skybridge Capital创始人兼管理合伙人安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)在最近的一次采访中做出了一个大胆的预测：在即将到来的减半事件之后，比特币的价格可能会飙升至20万美元。这一预测是在地缘政治紧张局势和更广泛的经济不确定性推动下，加密货币市场持续波动的情况下做出的。

Scaramucci's bullish outlook is based on several factors. He cites the growing demand for Bitcoin, particularly from institutional investors and through the emergence of new financial products such as ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds). These instruments provide an easy and accessible entry point for traditional investors, broadening the cryptocurrency's investor base.

斯卡拉穆奇的乐观前景基于几个因素。他提到了对比特币的需求不断增长，特别是来自机构投资者以及 ETF（交易所交易基金）等新金融产品的出现。这些工具为传统投资者提供了一个简单易用的切入点，扩大了加密货币的投资者基础。

"But long term with the halving coming this week, I think this thing trades to $170,000, possibly to $200,000," Scaramucci asserted.

“但从长远来看，随着本周减半的到来，我认为这个价格将达到 170,000 美元，甚至可能达到 200,000 美元，”Scaramucci 断言。

The halving event, scheduled to occur on April 28th, is a significant event in Bitcoin's economics. It involves reducing the block reward given to miners, which effectively constrains the supply of new Bitcoins. Historically, halving events have been associated with significant price上涨s due to the reduced availability of new supply.

计划于 4 月 28 日发生的减半事件是比特币经济学中的重大事件。它涉及减少给予矿工的区块奖励，这有效地限制了新比特币的供应。从历史上看，由于新供应量减少，减半事件与价格大幅上涨有关。

Scaramucci acknowledges potential short-term setbacks, such as geopolitical shocks or market corrections, but emphasizes the underlying demand dynamics that support Bitcoin's long-term value. He dismisses concerns over the potential for ETFs to lead to the centralization of Bitcoin, arguing that they remain a small fraction of overall ownership.

斯卡拉穆奇承认潜在的短期挫折，例如地缘政治冲击或市场调整，但强调支持比特币长期价值的潜在需求动态。他驳斥了人们对 ETF 可能导致比特币中心化的担忧，认为它们仍然只占总体所有权的一小部分。

"In terms of adoption vis-a-vis the ETF, you look out your four-year time horizon. […] It will still be less than 10 % of the overall ownership of Bitcoin. So this whole notion that the ETFs are gonna overly centralize Bitcoin, I don’t buy it. I think what the ETFs are, though, is they’re a great conduit for people that are used to buying them."

“就 ETF 的采用而言，你会看到四年的时间范围。[…]它仍然不到比特币总体所有权的 10%。所以，ETF 将会成为现实的整个概念虽然比特币过于中心化，但我不买它，但我认为 ETF 对于习惯购买它们的人来说是一个很好的渠道。”

Scaramucci also draws parallels between Bitcoin's current trajectory and the early days of the internet, particularly the volatility experienced by tech stocks during the dot-com bubble. He points to Amazon as an example, highlighting its long-term growth despite significant price swings along the way.

斯卡拉穆奇还将比特币当前的发展轨迹与互联网的早期阶段进行了比较，特别是科技股在互联网泡沫期间经历的波动。他以亚马逊为例，强调尽管价格波动很大，但该公司的长期增长。

"In 1999, Amazon was an emerging stock on an emerging technology, and it was quite volatile. And you lost 20 to 50 % eight times on Amazon. You lost 80%. Yeah, that one time in March of 2020, it went down 80%. But if you held Amazon over that period of time, $10,000 is worth a little over $14 million today."

“1999 年，亚马逊是新兴技术的新兴股票，波动性很大。你在亚马逊上损失了 8 次 20% 到 50%。你损失了 80%。是的，2020 年 3 月有一次，它下跌了但如果你在那段时间持有亚马逊，那么今天的 10,000 美元价值略高于 1400 万美元。”

Scaramucci emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment horizon for Bitcoin, acknowledging the potential for market downturns but expressing confidence in its resilience and long-term value proposition.

斯卡拉穆奇强调了比特币长期投资视野的重要性，承认市场下滑的可能性，但对其弹性和长期价值主张表示信心。

"I think if we go through a dot-com bust in the broader market in the next year or two, I think you’ll have a price shock in Bitcoin consistent with a dot-com bust. However, if you’re willing to hold that asset, which we are over a rolling four-year period of time, no one has ever lost money in Bitcoin," he noted.

“我认为，如果我们在未来一两年内经历更广泛市场的互联网泡沫破灭，我认为比特币的价格冲击将会与互联网泡沫破灭一致。但是，如果你愿意的话持有这一资产，在过去四年的时间里，没有人在比特币上亏过钱。”他指出。

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $64,000, indicating a positive market sentiment and reinforcing Scaramucci's bullish outlook.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的价格已超过 64,000 美元，表明市场情绪积极，并强化了斯卡拉穆奇的看涨前景。