在減半和機構採用的推動下，比特幣預計將飆升至 20 萬美元

比特幣價格預測：即將達到 20 萬美元？儘管存在市場波動和地緣政治不確定性，但他指出強勁的需求動態以及比特幣在傳統金融產品中的日益採用是這一看漲前景的關鍵驅動因素。斯卡拉穆奇強調長期投資視野的重要性，與早期網路時代相似，並強調比特幣在市場低迷時的彈性。

Bitcoin Projected to Reach $200,000, Fueled by Halving Event and Institutional Adoption

在減半事件和機構採用的推動下，比特幣預計將達到 20 萬美元

In a recent interview, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, has made a bold prediction: the price of Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 following the upcoming halving event. This forecast comes amidst ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency markets, fueled by geopolitical tensions and broader economic uncertainty.

Skybridge Capital創始人兼管理合夥人安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)在最近的一次採訪中做出了一個大膽的預測：在即將到來的減半事件之後，比特幣的價格可能會飆升至20萬美元。這項預測是在地緣政治緊張局勢和更廣泛的經濟不確定性推動下，加密貨幣市場持續波動的情況下做出的。

Scaramucci's bullish outlook is based on several factors. He cites the growing demand for Bitcoin, particularly from institutional investors and through the emergence of new financial products such as ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds). These instruments provide an easy and accessible entry point for traditional investors, broadening the cryptocurrency's investor base.

斯卡拉穆奇的樂觀前景是基於幾個因素。他提到了對比特幣的需求不斷增長，特別是來自機構投資者以及 ETF（交易所交易基金）等新金融產品的出現。這些工具為傳統投資者提供了一個簡單易用的切入點，擴大了加密貨幣的投資者基礎。

"But long term with the halving coming this week, I think this thing trades to $170,000, possibly to $200,000," Scaramucci asserted.

「但從長遠來看，隨著本週減半的到來，我認為這個價格將達到 17 萬美元，甚至可能達到 20 萬美元，」Scaramucci 斷言。

The halving event, scheduled to occur on April 28th, is a significant event in Bitcoin's economics. It involves reducing the block reward given to miners, which effectively constrains the supply of new Bitcoins. Historically, halving events have been associated with significant price上涨s due to the reduced availability of new supply.

計劃於 4 月 28 日發生的減半事件是比特幣經濟學中的重大事件。它涉及減少給予礦工的區塊獎勵，這有效地限制了新比特幣的供應。從歷史上看，由於新供應量減少，減半事件與價格大幅上漲有關。

Scaramucci acknowledges potential short-term setbacks, such as geopolitical shocks or market corrections, but emphasizes the underlying demand dynamics that support Bitcoin's long-term value. He dismisses concerns over the potential for ETFs to lead to the centralization of Bitcoin, arguing that they remain a small fraction of overall ownership.

斯卡拉穆奇承認潛在的短期挫折，例如地緣政治衝擊或市場調整，但強調支持比特幣長期價值的潛在需求動態。他駁斥了人們對 ETF 可能導致比特幣中心化的擔憂，認為它們仍然只佔整體所有權的一小部分。

"In terms of adoption vis-a-vis the ETF, you look out your four-year time horizon. […] It will still be less than 10 % of the overall ownership of Bitcoin. So this whole notion that the ETFs are gonna overly centralize Bitcoin, I don’t buy it. I think what the ETFs are, though, is they’re a great conduit for people that are used to buying them."

「就 ETF 的採用而言，你會看到四年的時間範圍。[…]它仍然不到比特幣總體所有權的 10%。所以，ETF 將會成為現實的整個概念雖然比特幣過於中心化，但我不買它，但我認為ETF 對於習慣購買它們的人來說是一個很好的管道。

Scaramucci also draws parallels between Bitcoin's current trajectory and the early days of the internet, particularly the volatility experienced by tech stocks during the dot-com bubble. He points to Amazon as an example, highlighting its long-term growth despite significant price swings along the way.

斯卡拉穆奇也將比特幣當前的發展軌跡與網路的早期階段進行了比較，特別是科技股在網路泡沫期間經歷的波動。他以亞馬遜為例，強調儘管價格波動很大，但該公司的長期成長。

"In 1999, Amazon was an emerging stock on an emerging technology, and it was quite volatile. And you lost 20 to 50 % eight times on Amazon. You lost 80%. Yeah, that one time in March of 2020, it went down 80%. But if you held Amazon over that period of time, $10,000 is worth a little over $14 million today."

「1999 年，亞馬遜是新興科技的新興股票，波動性很大。你在亞馬遜上損失了 8 次 20% 到 50%。你損失了 80%。是的，2020 年 3 月有一次，它下跌了但如果你在那段時間持有亞馬遜，那麼今天的10,000 美元價值略高於1400 萬美元。

Scaramucci emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment horizon for Bitcoin, acknowledging the potential for market downturns but expressing confidence in its resilience and long-term value proposition.

斯卡拉穆奇強調了比特幣長期投資視野的重要性，承認市場下滑的可能性，但對其彈性和長期價值主張表示信心。

"I think if we go through a dot-com bust in the broader market in the next year or two, I think you’ll have a price shock in Bitcoin consistent with a dot-com bust. However, if you’re willing to hold that asset, which we are over a rolling four-year period of time, no one has ever lost money in Bitcoin," he noted.

「我認為，如果我們在未來一兩年內經歷更廣泛市場的網路泡沫破滅，我認為比特幣的價格衝擊將會與網路泡沫破滅一致。但是，如果你願意的話持有這一資產，在過去四年的時間裡，沒有人在比特幣上虧過錢。

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $64,000, indicating a positive market sentiment and reinforcing Scaramucci's bullish outlook.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣的價格已超過 64,000 美元，顯示市場情緒積極，並強化了斯卡拉穆奇的看漲前景。