比特币价格将在减半后暴跌，美联储紧缩迫在眉睫

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 预测，由于美联储和财政部的“一系列伎俩”，比特币减半后加密市场将出现下滑，其中包括收紧美元流动性、量化紧缩以及尚未使用的财政部长帐户。海耶斯认为，这些因素将加剧当前加密资产的抛售。

Bitcoin Price Poised for Plunge Amid Halving, Fed and Treasury 'Bag of Tricks', Warns BitMEX Co-founder

BitMEX 联合创始人警告称，比特币价格将在减半、美联储和财政部“一连串诡计”中暴跌

April 8, 2022 - As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event looms on the horizon, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has issued a stark warning, predicting a significant downturn in the crypto market in the coming weeks. Hayes, known for his astute analysis and provocative commentary, attributes the impending slump to a combination of factors, including the halving itself, tighter dollar liquidity, and the implementation of the Federal Reserve and Treasury's so-called "bag of tricks."

2022 年 4 月 8 日 - 随着备受期待的比特币减半事件迫在眉睫，BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 发出严厉警告，预计未来几周加密市场将出现大幅下滑。海耶斯以其敏锐的分析和挑衅性的评论而闻名，他将即将到来的经济衰退归因于多种因素，包括减半本身、美元流动性收紧以及美联储和财政部所谓的“一揽子伎俩”的实施。

In a comprehensive blog post published on April 8, Hayes argues that the market's prevailing narrative of a price pump following the halving is misguided, as history has repeatedly demonstrated that when most market participants anticipate a particular outcome, the opposite often occurs. He emphasizes that the halving coincides with a period of unusually tight dollar liquidity, exacerbated by the Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy and the government's yet-to-be-used General Account (TGA).

海耶斯在 4 月 8 日发表的一篇综合博客文章中指出，市场普遍认为减半后价格上涨的说法是错误的，因为历史一再证明，当大多数市场参与者预期特定结果时，往往会发生相反的情况。他强调，减半恰逢美元流动性异常紧张的时期，美联储的量化紧缩（QT）政策和政府尚未使用的普通账户（TGA）加剧了这种情况。

Hayes contends that these factors will conspire to depress crypto prices around the time of the halving. "That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving [...] It will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets," he writes. However, Hayes acknowledges the possibility that the market may defy his bearish predictions, stating, "Could the market defy my bearish inclinations and continue higher? Fuck yeah," and professing his unwavering long-term bullishness on crypto.

海耶斯认为，这些因素将在减半前后共同压低加密货币价格。 “这就是为什么我相信比特币和加密货币价格总体将在减半前后暴跌……这将为加密资产的疯狂抛售增添动力，”他写道。然而，海耶斯承认市场可能会违背他的看跌预测，他表示，“市场能否违背我的看跌倾向并继续走高？操，是的”，并表示他对加密货币坚定不移的长期看涨。

Hayes further outlines the precarious period for risky assets that he anticipates during the second half of April. In addition to the aforementioned liquidity tightening measures, U.S. tax payments will further drain liquidity, while the Fed is expected to reduce the pace of money supply tightening and the Treasury is likely to release additional liquidity into the system following its May 1 meeting.

海耶斯进一步概述了他预计 4 月下半月风险资产的不稳定时期。除了上述流动性紧缩措施外，美国纳税将进一步消耗流动性，而美联储预计将放缓货币供应紧缩步伐，财政部很可能在5月1日会议后向系统释放额外流动性。

Hayes believes that this confluence of events will create a challenging environment for crypto assets, prompting him to "abstain from trading until May." He emphasizes that if his liquidity scenarios materialize, it would bolster his confidence to invest aggressively in undervalued assets. "If I miss a few percentage points of gains but definitely avoid losses for my portfolio and lifestyle, that is an acceptable outcome," he concludes.

海耶斯认为，这些事件的结合将为加密资产创造一个充满挑战的环境，促使他“在五月份之前放弃交易”。他强调，如果他的流动性情景成为现实，这将增强他积极投资被低估资产的信心。 “如果我错过了几个百分点的收益，但绝对避免了我的投资组合和生活方式的损失，那是一个可以接受的结果，”他总结道。

Despite Hayes' cautionary outlook, Bitcoin has enjoyed a strong year-to-date performance, surging over 61% from around $42,200 to trade at $71,170. The market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, remains in the "Greed" zone, with a score of 80 on April 9, indicating extreme investor optimism.

尽管 Hayes 的前景持谨慎态度，但比特币今年迄今仍表现强劲，从 42,200 美元左右飙升逾 61%，至 71,170 美元。根据加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数衡量，市场情绪仍处于“贪婪”区域，4 月 9 日得分为 80，表明投资者极度乐观。

However, Hayes' analysis serves as a timely reminder that market sentiment can shift rapidly, especially in the volatile crypto space. As the halving and other macroeconomic factors converge, investors are advised to exercise prudence and carefully consider their investment strategies.

然而，海耶斯的分析及时提醒人们，市场情绪可能会迅速变化，尤其是在波动较大的加密货币领域。随着减半等宏观经济因素的汇聚，建议投资者谨慎行事，仔细考虑自己的投资策略。