比特幣價格將在減半後暴跌，聯準會緊縮迫在眉睫

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 預測，由於聯準會和財政部的“一系列伎倆”，比特幣減半後加密市場將出現下滑，其中包括收緊美元流動性、量化緊縮以及尚未使用的財政部長帳戶。海耶斯認為，這些因素將加劇目前加密資產的拋售。

Bitcoin Price Poised for Plunge Amid Halving, Fed and Treasury 'Bag of Tricks', Warns BitMEX Co-founder

BitMEX 聯合創始人警告稱，比特幣價格將在減半、美聯儲和財政部「一連串詭計」中暴跌

April 8, 2022 - As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event looms on the horizon, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has issued a stark warning, predicting a significant downturn in the crypto market in the coming weeks. Hayes, known for his astute analysis and provocative commentary, attributes the impending slump to a combination of factors, including the halving itself, tighter dollar liquidity, and the implementation of the Federal Reserve and Treasury's so-called "bag of tricks."

2022 年 4 月 8 日 - 隨著備受期待的比特幣減半事件迫在眉睫，BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 發出嚴厲警告，預計未來幾週加密市場將出現大幅下滑。海耶斯以其敏銳的分析和挑釁性的評論而聞名，他將即將到來的經濟衰退歸因於多種因素，包括減半本身、美元流動性收緊以及美聯儲和財政部所謂的“一攬子伎倆”的實施。

In a comprehensive blog post published on April 8, Hayes argues that the market's prevailing narrative of a price pump following the halving is misguided, as history has repeatedly demonstrated that when most market participants anticipate a particular outcome, the opposite often occurs. He emphasizes that the halving coincides with a period of unusually tight dollar liquidity, exacerbated by the Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy and the government's yet-to-be-used General Account (TGA).

海耶斯在4 月8 日發表的一篇綜合部落格文章中指出，市場普遍認為減半後價格上漲的說法是錯誤的，因為歷史一再證明，當大多數市場參與者預期特定結果時，往往會發生相反的情況。他強調，減半恰逢美元流動性異常緊張的時期，聯準會的量化緊縮（QT）政策和政府尚未使用的普通帳戶（TGA）加劇了這種情況。

Hayes contends that these factors will conspire to depress crypto prices around the time of the halving. "That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving [...] It will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets," he writes. However, Hayes acknowledges the possibility that the market may defy his bearish predictions, stating, "Could the market defy my bearish inclinations and continue higher? Fuck yeah," and professing his unwavering long-term bullishness on crypto.

海耶斯認為，這些因素將在減半前後共同壓低加密貨幣價格。 「這就是為什麼我相信比特幣和加密貨幣價格總體將在減半前後暴跌……這將為加密資產的瘋狂拋售增添動力，」他寫道。然而，海耶斯承認市場可能會違背他的看跌預測，他表示，“市場能否違背我的看跌傾向並繼續走高？操，是的”，並表示他對加密貨幣堅定不移的長期看漲。

Hayes further outlines the precarious period for risky assets that he anticipates during the second half of April. In addition to the aforementioned liquidity tightening measures, U.S. tax payments will further drain liquidity, while the Fed is expected to reduce the pace of money supply tightening and the Treasury is likely to release additional liquidity into the system following its May 1 meeting.

海耶斯進一步概述了他預計 4 月下半月風險資產的不穩定時期。除了上述流動性緊縮措施外，美國納稅將進一步消耗流動性，而聯準會預計將放緩貨幣供應緊縮步伐，財政部很可能在5月1日會議後向系統釋放額外流動性。

Hayes believes that this confluence of events will create a challenging environment for crypto assets, prompting him to "abstain from trading until May." He emphasizes that if his liquidity scenarios materialize, it would bolster his confidence to invest aggressively in undervalued assets. "If I miss a few percentage points of gains but definitely avoid losses for my portfolio and lifestyle, that is an acceptable outcome," he concludes.

海耶斯認為，這些事件的結合將為加密資產創造一個充滿挑戰的環境，促使他「在五月之前放棄交易」。他強調，如果他的流動性情境成為現實，這將增強他積極投資被低估資產的信心。 「如果我錯過了幾個百分點的收益，但絕對避免了我的投資組合和生活方式的損失，那是一個可以接受的結果，」他總結道。

Despite Hayes' cautionary outlook, Bitcoin has enjoyed a strong year-to-date performance, surging over 61% from around $42,200 to trade at $71,170. The market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, remains in the "Greed" zone, with a score of 80 on April 9, indicating extreme investor optimism.

儘管 Hayes 的前景持謹慎態度，但比特幣今年迄今仍表現強勁，從 42,200 美元左右飆升逾 61%，至 71,170 美元。根據加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數衡量，市場情緒仍處於「貪婪」區域，4 月 9 日得分為 80，顯示投資者極度樂觀。

However, Hayes' analysis serves as a timely reminder that market sentiment can shift rapidly, especially in the volatile crypto space. As the halving and other macroeconomic factors converge, investors are advised to exercise prudence and carefully consider their investment strategies.

然而，海耶斯的分析及時提醒人們，市場情緒可能會迅速變化，尤其是在波動較大的加密貨幣領域。隨著減半等宏觀經濟因素的匯聚，建議投資人謹慎行事，仔細考慮自己的投資策略。