2025年比特币价格预测：特朗普回归会引发新牛市吗？

2025年，比特币的未来充满期待，市场巨头都在期待特朗普的回归，希望这一事件能够成为全年加密市场增长的主要催化剂。

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in 2025, market enthusiasts are pinning their hopes on the former president's policies having a major impact on the crypto market.

随着唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 准备于 2025 年重返白宫，市场狂热者将希望寄托在这位前总统的政策对加密货币市场产生重大影响上。

With Bitcoin halving having taken place just a year prior andチャートテクニカル分析 a fresh all-time high in sight, the stage is set for an explosive year in crypto.

随着比特币减半发生在一年前，技术分析图表显示出新的历史高点，加密货币爆炸性的一年即将到来。

Here's a closer look at how Trump's second term could affect the market and what to expect for Bitcoin in 2025.

以下是特朗普第二任期将如何影响市场以及 2025 年比特币的预期的详细分析。

1. Build up a Bitcoin reserveDuring last year's campaign, Trump promised to put all the bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government and those purchased in the future into a "national strategic bitcoin reserve." He likened the plan to the U.S. oil reserves and the need to act quickly to accumulate large reserves before competing countries such as China.

1.建立比特币储备去年竞选期间，特朗普承诺将美国政府目前持有的以及未来购买的所有比特币纳入“国家比特币战略储备”。他将该计划比作美国的石油储备，以及需要在中国等竞争国家之前迅速采取行动积累大量储备。

Trump's plan is not the first of its kind in the world. As early as 2021, El Salvador used Bitcoin as a reserve asset and currently holds a total of 6,150 Bitcoins, which is approximately $600 million at current prices.

特朗普的计划并不是世界上第一个此类计划。早在2021年，萨尔瓦多就将比特币作为储备资产，目前总共持有6150枚比特币，按当前价格计算约为6亿美元。

Although the specific details of Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan are still unclear and there is uncertainty as to whether it will actually be implemented, there are signs that this plan may refer to the "BITCOIN Act" (Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide) proposed by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis.

尽管特朗普比特币储备计划的具体细节尚不清楚，是否真正实施也存在不确定性，但有迹象表明，该计划可能会参考《比特币法案》（通过全国优化投资促进创新、技术和竞争力） ）由共和党参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出。

According to an analysis by Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom24, “Under the so-called BITCOIN Act, the U.S. must accumulate 1 million bitcoins over the next 20 years, equivalent to about 5% of the total supply. The limited supply of bitcoin is expected to push up its price, and by accumulating bitcoin now, the U.S. may help offset growing debt problems in the future.”

Freedom24投资研究主管Maxim Manturov分析称，“根据所谓的比特币法案，美国必须在未来20年内积累100万枚比特币，相当于总供应量的5%左右。比特币的有限供应预计将推高其价格，通过现在积累比特币，美国可能有助于抵消未来日益严重的债务问题。”

Since the total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million, this means that 5% of the supply is equivalent to 1.05 million Bitcoins, which is worth more than $100 billion at current valuations.

由于比特币的总供应量限制为2100万枚，这意味着5%的供应量相当于105万枚比特币，按目前估值计算，其价值超过1000亿美元。

2. Supply and demand imbalance will push up pricesWith the huge demand for Bitcoin ETF funds, this supply-demand imbalance may further drive prices up. Manturov pointed out that in this context, the market's predictions for Bitcoin prices range from $125,000 in 2025 to $2.9 million in 2050.

2、供需失衡将推高价格随着比特币ETF基金的巨大需求，这种供需失衡可能会进一步推高价格。曼图洛夫指出，在此背景下，市场对比特币价格的预测范围从2025年的12.5万美元到2050年的290万美元。

It is not certain whether Trump’s policy will come true, but if this plan is implemented, the United States may not only become the leader in Bitcoin reserves, but will also have a profound impact on the future of the crypto market. Bitcoin’s historic moment may be coming.

目前还不确定特朗普的政策是否会实现，但如果这一计划得以实施，美国可能不仅会成为比特币储备的领导者，而且还将对加密市场的未来产生深远的影响。比特币的历史性时刻可能即将到来。

3. How high can Bitcoin go?The timing of Trump's return to the presidency is particularly critical because Bitcoin has just completed its fourth "halving event" in 2024. This is a preset mechanism that occurs automatically every four years or so, and each halving halves the Bitcoin rewards miners receive through computing power mining.

3、比特币能走多高？特朗普重回总统宝座的时机尤为关键，因为比特币在2024年刚刚完成第四次“减半事件”。这是预设的机制，每四年左右自动发生一次，每次减半矿工通过算力挖矿获得的比特币奖励减半。

1. Halving event and market rallyThe Bitcoin halving event automatically increases the scarcity of newly generated Bitcoins, and historically this mechanism has often triggered market rallies and pushed Bitcoin prices to record highs.

1.减半事件和市场反弹比特币减半事件自动增加了新生成的比特币的稀缺性，历史上这种机制经常引发市场反弹并推动比特币价格创出历史新高。

Therefore, expectations for Bitcoin’s performance in the first half of 2025 are already extremely high, and the optimism brought about by Trump may further boost Bitcoin’s adoption.

因此，人们对比特币2025年上半年表现的预期已经极高，特朗普带来的乐观情绪可能会进一步推动比特币的采用。

2. Trump’s price expectationsAccording to sources, Trump privately hopes that Bitcoin can reach $150,000 early in his presidency and sees it as an alternative to the stock market.

2.特朗普的价格预期 据消息人士透露，特朗普私下希望比特币能够在其总统任期内达到15万美元，并将其视为股市的替代品。

Trump's son Eric Trump is even more radical. He said at the Bitcoin Conference MENA in December that the price of Bitcoin could reach $1 million in the future.

特朗普的儿子埃里克·特朗普更加激进。他在12月的中东和北非比特币会议上表示，未来比特币的价格可能达到100万美元。

While the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and the volatility of global markets and geopolitics make such predictions fraught with uncertainty, given investor enthusiasm and the limited supply of Bitcoin, it is not inconceivable that Bitcoin could reach the $1 million mark in the future.

尽管加密货币的投机性质以及全球市场和地缘政治的波动性使得此类预测充满不确定性，但鉴于投资者的热情和比特币的供应有限，比特币未来达到 100 万美元大关并非不可想象。

However, in 2025, the price of Bitcoin could be closer to Trump’s $150,000 prediction. But if market sentiment continues to grow, $150,000 may appear too conservative.

然而，到 2025 年，比特币的价格可能会更接近特朗普预测的 15 万美元。但如果市场情绪继续增长，150,000 美元可能显得过于保守。

4. Potential problems still existA key challenge facing the Trump administration is that uncertainty about the future of Bitcoin remains.

4.潜在问题依然存在特朗普政府面临的一个关键挑战是比特币未来的不确定性仍然存在。

John Prasad, senior investment expert at Mirabaud Group, pointed out that Bitcoin's future is full of potential but also accompanied by uncertainty. He listed inflationary pressures, liquidity issues, global regulatory prospects and controversy as a store of value as reasons why Bitcoin's growth is not yet fully guaranteed.

Mirabaud Group高级投资专家John Prasad指出，比特币的未来充满潜力，但也伴随着不确定性。他将通胀压力、流动性问题、全球监管前景以及作为价值储存手段的争议列为比特币增长尚未得到充分保证的原因。

Chris Lehmann, Washington bureau chief for The Nation magazine, believes that the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in the

《国家》杂志华盛顿分社社长克里斯·莱曼 (Chris Lehmann) 认为，加密货币在美国的接受度不断提高