比特币价格预测：随着看跌指标的出现，Saylor 的 10 万美元目标面临阻力

自唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)成为美国大选获胜者以来，比特币的看涨势头仍在持续，在强劲的上升趋势之后，比特币在90,000美元左右盘整。

Despite Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, several bearish indicators could test the conviction of even the most optimistic traders as markets anticipate Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) rally toward the $100,000 milestone.

尽管唐纳德·特朗普在美国大选中获胜，但一些看跌指标可能会考验即使是最乐观的交易者的信念，因为市场预计比特币（加密货币：BTC）将上涨至 100,000 美元的里程碑。

What Happened: MicroStrategy’s Executive Chairman Michael Saylor is among those anticipating the flagship crypto to hit $100,000 before 2024, citing a favorable regulatory environment driven by Trump’s presidential election win.

发生了什么：MicroStrategy 执行主席 Michael Saylor 等人预计这款旗舰加密货币将在 2024 年之前达到 10 万美元，理由是特朗普赢得总统大选推动了有利的监管环境。

“I’m planning the $100,000 party, and I think we’ll break through in November or December,” Saylor said recently.

“我正在筹划 10 万美元的派对，我想我们会在 11 月或 12 月取得突破，”塞勒最近说道。

However, as markets glance toward this bullish achievement, several bearish indicators raise questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s current rally. From on-chain data to technical metrics, signs of a potential short-term correction are emerging, which could test the conviction of even the most optimistic traders.

然而，当市场关注这一看涨成就时，一些看跌指标引发了人们对比特币当前涨势可持续性的质疑。从链上数据到技术指标，潜在短期调整的迹象正在出现，这可能会考验即使是最乐观的交易者的信念。

Overbought RSI Suggests A Drop, But Not To $60K

超买 RSI 表明下跌，但不会跌至 6 万美元

First on the list of bearish cues is Bitcoin’s overbought RSI. With a score of 75.92 on the daily charts, the overbought momentum indicator could induce a selling spree, as overbought RSI levels often precede a trend reversal.

第一个看跌信号是比特币的超买 RSI。日线图上的得分为 75.92，超买动量指标可能会引发抛售热潮，因为超买 RSI 水平通常先于趋势反转。

Earlier this year, in March, the RSI reached similar levels, resulting in the BTC/USD pair breaking its uptrend and falling nearly 19% at one time. If the token repeats its historical pattern, Bitcoin price could end up testing the support level near $73,800.

今年早些时候，即 3 月份，RSI 达到了类似的水平，导致 BTC/USD 货币对突破了上升趋势，一度下跌了近 19%。如果该代币重复其历史模式，比特币价格最终可能会测试 73,800 美元附近的支撑位。

Though not close to $60,000, a sudden drop would likely precipitate a long squeeze, increasing selling pressure against the token. Theoretically, that could exacerbate the bearish cues against Bitcoin and force a test of price levels close to $60,000.

虽然不接近 60,000 美元，但突然下跌可能会引发多头挤压，从而增加对该代币的抛售压力。从理论上讲，这可能会加剧对比特币的看跌信号，并迫使其价格水平接近 60,000 美元。

Analyst Warnings Signal a Brewing Correction

分析师警告预示着酝酿修正

Recent market analysis from prominent traders highlights critical bearish signals for Bitcoin. In a Nov. 10 post, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that the Bitcoin futures market appears overheated, with heightened open interest and rising funding rates.

知名交易员最近的市场分析凸显了比特币的关键看跌信号。 CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 在 11 月 10 日的帖子中指出，比特币期货市场似乎过热，未平仓合约增加，融资利率上升。

However, Ju has since retracted his prediction, saying that he was not “implying a bear market, just a correction.“

然而，鞠后来撤回了他的预测，称他并不是“暗示熊市，只是回调”。

Yet elevated funding rates indicate that the market is heavily skewed toward long positions, which are often a precursor to liquidation events.

然而，融资利率上升表明市场严重偏向多头头寸，这往往是清算事件的先兆。

Another critical metric, open interest, has also surged, reflecting speculative trading activity. Historically, such conditions have led to corrective moves as leverage builds unsustainably. Moreover, a correction here, even if it is minor, could induce panic selling among long position holders as they scramble to pare losses.

另一个关键指标——未平仓合约——也大幅上升，反映出投机交易活动。从历史上看，随着杠杆率不可持续地增加，这种情况会导致纠正行动。此外，即使调整幅度很小，也可能会引起多头头寸持有者的恐慌性抛售，因为他们会争先恐后地削减损失。

Furthermore, crypto trader Shotokhan noted bearish divergences in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and open interest data. Divergences between price action and RSI often signal weakening momentum, increasing the likelihood of a price reversal.

此外，加密货币交易员 Shotokhan 指出相对强弱指数（RSI）和未平仓合约数据出现看跌背离。价格走势与 RSI 之间的背离通常预示着动能减弱，从而增加了价格逆转的可能性。

Similarly, Bitcoin’s consolidation in a tight range over the past six days has raised questions about its ability to sustain upward momentum without a significant retracement.

同样，比特币过去六天的窄幅盘整引发了人们对其能否在不出现大幅回调的情况下维持上行势头的质疑。

Another analyst, going by the username Dream Chaser JTK on X, predicted a 15% correction that could send Bitcoin to $77,000 before resuming an upward trend toward $110,000. Considering these signals, a pullback to $85,000 or even $77,000 appears increasingly likely in the short term.

另一位 X 上的用户名为 Dream Chaser JTK 的分析师预测，比特币将出现 15% 的回调，最终价格将升至 77,000 美元，然后再恢复向 110,000 美元的上涨趋势。考虑到这些信号，短期内回调至 85,000 美元甚至 77,000 美元的可能性似乎越来越大。

On-Chain Trends Point to Mounting Risks

链上趋势表明风险不断增加

Meanwhile, on-chain data further corroborates Bitcoin’s bearish outlook. A closer look at Glassnode metrics reveals a decline in holdings among small—and mid-sized investors.

与此同时，链上数据进一步证实了比特币的看跌前景。仔细观察 Glassnode 指标就会发现，中小型投资者的持股量有所下降。

Addresses holding 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC have reduced their balances significantly over the past month. This trend suggests profit-taking among smaller market participants, often a bearish signal, as it indicates waning confidence in the rally’s sustainability.

过去一个月，持有 10-100 BTC 和 100-1,000 BTC 的地址的余额大幅减少。这一趋势表明较小的市场参与者正在获利了结，这通常是一个看跌信号，因为它表明对反弹可持续性的信心正在减弱。

In contrast, addresses holding 10,000–100,000 BTC have increased their positions, signaling accumulation by whales. While this accumulation suggests confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, it also introduces short-term volatility.

相比之下，持有 10,000-100,000 BTC 的地址增加了头寸，这表明鲸鱼正在积累资金。虽然这种积累表明人们对比特币的长期前景充满信心，但它也带来了短期波动。

Large holders could potentially unload positions to capitalize on Bitcoin’s elevated price levels, leading to sudden corrections.

大持有者可能会抛售头寸，以利用比特币价格上涨的机会，从而导致突然的调整。

The net transfer volume to exchanges adds nuance to the analysis. Recent red bars, representing Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, suggest reduced immediate sell pressure as investors appear to move funds into cold wallets for long-term holding.

交易所的净传输量为分析增添了细微差别。最近的红条代表比特币从交易所流出，表明由于投资者似乎将资金转移到冷钱包中以长期持有，因此立即的抛售压力有所减少。

While this could be considered bullish, it follows a period of green bars (net inflows), which signaled earlier selling pressure. This shift could indicate that some investors have already capitalized on profits, leaving the market more vulnerable to the other bearish factors in play.

虽然这可能被认为是看涨的，但它是在一段时期的绿条（净流入）之后出现的，这表明了早些时候的抛售压力。这种转变可能表明一些投资者已经获利了结，从而使市场更容易受到其他利空因素的影响。

Coupled with weakening retail participation, these exchange inflows amplify the risk of a short-term correction.

再加上散户参与度减弱，这些外汇流入放大了短期调整的风险。

If these bearish indicators materialize, Bitcoin’s price could drop to test key support levels

如果这些看跌指标成为现实，比特币的价格可能会下跌以测试关键支撑位