比特幣價格預測：隨著看跌指標的出現，Saylor 的 10 萬美元目標面臨阻力

自從唐納德·川普(Donald Trump)成為美國大選獲勝者以來，比特幣的看漲勢頭仍在持續，在強勁的上升趨勢之後，比特幣在90,000美元左右盤整。

Despite Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, several bearish indicators could test the conviction of even the most optimistic traders as markets anticipate Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) rally toward the $100,000 milestone.

儘管唐納德·川普在美國大選中獲勝，但一些看跌指標可能會考驗即使是最樂觀的交易者的信念，因為市場預計比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）將上漲至 100,000 美元的里程碑。

What Happened: MicroStrategy’s Executive Chairman Michael Saylor is among those anticipating the flagship crypto to hit $100,000 before 2024, citing a favorable regulatory environment driven by Trump’s presidential election win.

發生了什麼：MicroStrategy 執行主席 Michael Saylor 等人預計這款旗艦加密貨幣將在 2024 年之前達到 10 萬美元，理由是川普贏得總統大選推動了有利的監管環境。

“I’m planning the $100,000 party, and I think we’ll break through in November or December,” Saylor said recently.

「我正在籌劃 10 萬美元的派對，我想我們會在 11 月或 12 月取得突破，」塞勒最近說道。

However, as markets glance toward this bullish achievement, several bearish indicators raise questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s current rally. From on-chain data to technical metrics, signs of a potential short-term correction are emerging, which could test the conviction of even the most optimistic traders.

然而，當市場關注這項看漲成就時，一些看跌指標引發了人們對比特幣當前漲勢永續性的質疑。從鏈上數據到技術指標，潛在短期調整的跡象正在出現，這可能會考驗即使是最樂觀的交易者的信念。

Overbought RSI Suggests A Drop, But Not To $60K

超買 RSI 表示下跌，但不會跌至 6 萬美元

First on the list of bearish cues is Bitcoin’s overbought RSI. With a score of 75.92 on the daily charts, the overbought momentum indicator could induce a selling spree, as overbought RSI levels often precede a trend reversal.

第一個看跌訊號是比特幣的超買 RSI。日線圖上的得分為 75.92，超買動量指標可能會引發拋售熱潮，因為超買 RSI 水準通常先於趨勢反轉。

Earlier this year, in March, the RSI reached similar levels, resulting in the BTC/USD pair breaking its uptrend and falling nearly 19% at one time. If the token repeats its historical pattern, Bitcoin price could end up testing the support level near $73,800.

今年早些時候，即 3 月份，RSI 達到了類似的水平，導致 BTC/USD 貨幣對突破了上升趨勢，一度下跌了近 19%。如果該代幣重複其歷史模式，比特幣價格最終可能會測試 73,800 美元附近的支撐。

Though not close to $60,000, a sudden drop would likely precipitate a long squeeze, increasing selling pressure against the token. Theoretically, that could exacerbate the bearish cues against Bitcoin and force a test of price levels close to $60,000.

雖然不接近 60,000 美元，但突然下跌可能會引發多頭擠壓，從而增加對該代幣的拋售壓力。從理論上講，這可能會加劇對比特幣的看跌訊號，並迫使其價格水平接近 60,000 美元。

Analyst Warnings Signal a Brewing Correction

分析師警告預示著醞釀修正

Recent market analysis from prominent traders highlights critical bearish signals for Bitcoin. In a Nov. 10 post, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that the Bitcoin futures market appears overheated, with heightened open interest and rising funding rates.

知名交易員最近的市場分析凸顯了比特幣的關鍵看跌訊號。 CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 在 11 月 10 日的貼文中指出，比特幣期貨市場似乎過熱，未平倉合約增加，融資利率上升。

However, Ju has since retracted his prediction, saying that he was not “implying a bear market, just a correction.“

然而，鞠後來撤回了他的預測，稱他並不是「暗示熊市，只是回調」。

Yet elevated funding rates indicate that the market is heavily skewed toward long positions, which are often a precursor to liquidation events.

然而，融資利率上升顯示市場嚴重偏向多頭頭寸，這往往是清算事件的先兆。

Another critical metric, open interest, has also surged, reflecting speculative trading activity. Historically, such conditions have led to corrective moves as leverage builds unsustainably. Moreover, a correction here, even if it is minor, could induce panic selling among long position holders as they scramble to pare losses.

另一個關鍵指標——未平倉合約——也大幅上升，反映出投機交易活動。從歷史上看，隨著槓桿率不可持續地增加，這種情況會導致糾正行動。此外，即使調整幅度很小，也可能會引起多頭部位持有者的恐慌性拋售，因為他們會爭先恐後地削減損失。

Furthermore, crypto trader Shotokhan noted bearish divergences in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and open interest data. Divergences between price action and RSI often signal weakening momentum, increasing the likelihood of a price reversal.

此外，加密貨幣交易員 Shotokhan 指出相對強弱指數（RSI）和未平倉合約資料出現看跌背離。價格走勢與 RSI 之間的背離通常預示著動能減弱，從而增加了價格逆轉的可能性。

Similarly, Bitcoin’s consolidation in a tight range over the past six days has raised questions about its ability to sustain upward momentum without a significant retracement.

同樣，比特幣過去六天的窄幅盤整引發了人們對其能否在不出現大幅回調的情況下維持上行勢頭的質疑。

Another analyst, going by the username Dream Chaser JTK on X, predicted a 15% correction that could send Bitcoin to $77,000 before resuming an upward trend toward $110,000. Considering these signals, a pullback to $85,000 or even $77,000 appears increasingly likely in the short term.

另一位 X 上的用戶名為 Dream Chaser JTK 的分析師預測，比特幣將出現 15% 的回調，最終價格將升至 77,000 美元，然後再恢復向 110,000 美元的上漲趨勢。考慮到這些訊號，短期內回調至 85,000 美元甚至 77,000 美元的可能性似乎越來越大。

On-Chain Trends Point to Mounting Risks

鏈上趨勢顯示風險不斷增加

Meanwhile, on-chain data further corroborates Bitcoin’s bearish outlook. A closer look at Glassnode metrics reveals a decline in holdings among small—and mid-sized investors.

同時，鏈上數據也進一步證實了比特幣的看跌前景。仔細觀察 Glassnode 指標就會發現，中小型投資者的持股量下降。

Addresses holding 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC have reduced their balances significantly over the past month. This trend suggests profit-taking among smaller market participants, often a bearish signal, as it indicates waning confidence in the rally’s sustainability.

過去一個月，持有 10-100 BTC 和 100-1,000 BTC 的地址的餘額大幅減少。這一趨勢表明較小的市場參與者正在獲利了結，這通常是一個看跌信號，因為它表明對反彈可持續性的信心正在減弱。

In contrast, addresses holding 10,000–100,000 BTC have increased their positions, signaling accumulation by whales. While this accumulation suggests confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, it also introduces short-term volatility.

相比之下，持有 10,000-100,000 BTC 的地址增加了頭寸，這表明鯨魚正在累積資金。雖然這種累積表明人們對比特幣的長期前景充滿信心，但它也帶來了短期波動。

Large holders could potentially unload positions to capitalize on Bitcoin’s elevated price levels, leading to sudden corrections.

大持有者可能會拋售頭寸，以利用比特幣價格上漲的機會，從而導致突然的調整。

The net transfer volume to exchanges adds nuance to the analysis. Recent red bars, representing Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, suggest reduced immediate sell pressure as investors appear to move funds into cold wallets for long-term holding.

交易所的淨傳輸量為分析增添了細微差別。最近的紅條代表比特幣從交易所流出，表明由於投資者似乎將資金轉移到冷錢包中以長期持有，因此立即的拋售壓力減少。

While this could be considered bullish, it follows a period of green bars (net inflows), which signaled earlier selling pressure. This shift could indicate that some investors have already capitalized on profits, leaving the market more vulnerable to the other bearish factors in play.

雖然這可能被認為是看漲的，但它是在一段時期的綠條（淨流入）之後出現的，這表明了早期的拋售壓力。這種轉變可能表明一些投資者已經獲利了結，使市場更容易受到其他利空因素的影響。

Coupled with weakening retail participation, these exchange inflows amplify the risk of a short-term correction.

再加上散戶參與度減弱，這些外匯流入放大了短期調整的風險。

If these bearish indicators materialize, Bitcoin’s price could drop to test key support levels

如果這些看跌指標成為現實，比特幣的價格可能會下跌以測試關鍵支撐位