比特币价格展望：看涨信号，减半后出现买入机会

4 月 20 日比特币减半后，分析师对其未来轨迹表达了不同的看法。 Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 仍然对 Runes 协议持乐观态度，并预测今年的潜在收益将达到 15 万美元。然而，链上数据显示，尽管 BTC 供应有利可图，但市场仍在降温，这表明可能出现类似于 2024 年 2 月 BTC 交易价格为 4.4 万美元的盘整阶段。

Bitcoin Price Predictions: Bullish Outlook Post Halving, MVRV Ratio Hints at Buying Opportunities

比特币价格预测：减半后看涨前景，MVRV 比率暗示买入机会

In the wake of the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving on April 20th, the cryptocurrency market has been abuzz with speculation about its future trajectory. While some analysts remain cautious, others are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's prospects, citing bullish signals and promising buying opportunities.

4 月 20 日，备受期待的比特币减半之后，加密货币市场对其未来走势的猜测甚嚣尘上。尽管一些分析师仍然持谨慎态度，但其他分析师对比特币的前景充满热情，理由是看涨信号和有希望的购买机会。

Tom Lee's Bullish Stance

汤姆·李的看涨立场

Hedge fund veteran Tom Lee of Fundstrat stands out as one of the most optimistic analysts. Despite Bitcoin's recent struggles to gain momentum, Lee maintains a bullish stance, highlighting the potential for significant price appreciation in the coming months.

Fundstrat 的对冲基金资深人士 Tom Lee 是最乐观的分析师之一。尽管比特币最近难以获得动力，但李仍保持看涨立场，强调未来几个月价格大幅上涨的潜力。

Lee points to the introduction of the Runes protocol, which generates substantial fees for the Bitcoin blockchain. According to Lee, this development strengthens the demand side of the equation while simultaneously constricting supply due to the programmed reduction in block rewards. As a result, he predicts that "there's upward pressure on the price."

Lee 指出了 Runes 协议的引入，该协议为比特币区块链产生了大量费用。 Lee 表示，这种发展增强了需求方，同时由于区块奖励的计划性减少而限制了供应。因此，他预测“价格存在上涨压力”。

$150,000 Target in Sight

150,000 美元的目标在望

Lee's optimism extends to the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before the end of the year. The analyst believes that the current market conditions, coupled with the positive impact of the Runes protocol, create a fertile environment for substantial price gains.

Lee 的乐观情绪延伸到了比特币在年底前达到 15 万美元的可能性。该分析师认为，当前的市场状况，加上符文协议的积极影响，为价格大幅上涨创造了肥沃的环境。

"I think BTC will definitely hit an all-time high this year," Lee said. "We think something like $150,000 is possible."

“我认为比特币今年肯定会创下历史新高，”李说。 “我们认为 15 万美元左右是可能的。”

MVRV Ratio Signals Buying Opportunity

MVRV 比率预示着买入机会

Meanwhile, on-chain data provides valuable insights into the market's sentiment and potential price movements. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which measures the profit or loss of Bitcoin holders, has recently dipped below its average.

与此同时，链上数据提供了有关市场情绪和潜在价格变动的宝贵见解。衡量比特币持有者利润或损失的市场价值与已实现价值（MVRV）比率最近已低于平均水平。

Historically, such dips have coincided with opportunities to acquire Bitcoin at relatively lower prices. As of April 21st, the MVRV ratio stood at 88.8%, indicating that a substantial portion of the Bitcoin supply is still profitable.

从历史上看，这种下跌与以相对较低的价格购买比特币的机会同时发生。截至 4 月 21 日，MVRV 比率为 88.8%，表明相当一部分比特币供应仍然有利可图。

Analyst Nebraskangooner suggests that a move towards $75,000 could signal a bottom in the market, while a drop below $58,000 would suggest otherwise.

分析师 Nebraskangooner 表示，价格升至 75,000 美元可能预示着市场触底，而跌破 58,000 美元则表明情况并非如此。

Consolidation Phase or Further Declines?

整合阶段还是进一步下跌？

Despite the bullish predictions, some analysts caution that the recent cooling in the market, as evidenced by the declining profitable supply ratio, could lead to a period of consolidation or even further declines.

尽管预测乐观，但一些分析师警告称，近期市场降温（盈利供应比率下降就是明证）可能会导致一段时期的盘整甚至进一步下跌。

The percentage of the Bitcoin supply in profit has cooled since the highs earlier this year, reaching levels last seen in February 2024, when Bitcoin traded at $44,000. This trend suggests that market sentiment may be cooling, potentially leading to a consolidation phase before further price increases.

自今年早些时候的高点以来，比特币供应占利润的比例已经下降，达到 2024 年 2 月的水平，当时比特币的交易价格为 44,000 美元。这一趋势表明市场情绪可能正在降温，可能导致价格进一步上涨之前进入盘整阶段。

Conclusion

结论

The Bitcoin halving has ignited a flurry of speculation and analysis, with experts expressing a range of opinions on the cryptocurrency's future. While the market has experienced some volatility following the event, analysts like Tom Lee remain bullish, predicting significant price appreciation in the coming months.

比特币减半引发了一系列猜测和分析，专家们对加密货币的未来表达了一系列观点。尽管市场在事件发生后经历了一些波动，但 Tom Lee 等分析师仍然看涨，预计未来几个月价格将大幅上涨。

On-chain data provides valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements, with the MVRV ratio hinting at buying opportunities. However, cautious analysts warn that the recent cooling in the market could lead to a period of consolidation or further declines.

链上数据提供了有关市场情绪和潜在价格变动的宝贵见解，MVRV 比率暗示了购买机会。然而，谨慎的分析师警告称，近期市场降温可能导致一段时间的盘整或进一步下跌。

As the market continues to evolve, investors would be wise to monitor these developments closely and make informed investment decisions based on their own research and analysis.

随着市场的不断发展，投资者应该明智地密切关注这些发展，并根据自己的研究和分析做出明智的投资决策。