比特幣價格展望：看漲訊號，減半後出現買進機會

4 月 20 日比特幣減半後，分析師對其未來軌跡表達了不同的看法。 Fundstrat 的 Tom Lee 仍然對 Runes 協議持樂觀態度，並預測今年的潛在收益將達到 15 萬美元。然而，鏈上數據顯示，儘管 BTC 供應有利可圖，但市場仍在降溫，這表明可能出現類似於 2024 年 2 月 BTC 交易價格為 4.4 萬美元的盤整階段。

Bitcoin Price Predictions: Bullish Outlook Post Halving, MVRV Ratio Hints at Buying Opportunities

比特幣價格預測：減半後看漲前景，MVRV 比率暗示買進機會

In the wake of the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving on April 20th, the cryptocurrency market has been abuzz with speculation about its future trajectory. While some analysts remain cautious, others are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's prospects, citing bullish signals and promising buying opportunities.

4 月 20 日，備受期待的比特幣減半後，加密貨幣市場對其未來趨勢的猜測甚囂塵上。儘管一些分析師仍然持謹慎態度，但其他分析師對比特幣的前景充滿熱情，理由是看漲訊號和有希望的購買機會。

Tom Lee's Bullish Stance

湯姆李的看漲立場

Hedge fund veteran Tom Lee of Fundstrat stands out as one of the most optimistic analysts. Despite Bitcoin's recent struggles to gain momentum, Lee maintains a bullish stance, highlighting the potential for significant price appreciation in the coming months.

Fundstrat 的對沖基金資深人士 Tom Lee 是最樂觀的分析師之一。儘管比特幣最近難以獲得動力，但李仍保持看漲立場，強調未來幾個月價格大幅上漲的潛力。

Lee points to the introduction of the Runes protocol, which generates substantial fees for the Bitcoin blockchain. According to Lee, this development strengthens the demand side of the equation while simultaneously constricting supply due to the programmed reduction in block rewards. As a result, he predicts that "there's upward pressure on the price."

Lee 指出了 Runes 協議的引入，該協議為比特幣區塊鏈產生了大量費用。 Lee 表示，這種發展增強了需求方，同時由於區塊獎勵的計劃性減少而限制了供應。因此，他預測「價格存在上漲壓力」。

$150,000 Target in Sight

15 萬美元的目標在望

Lee's optimism extends to the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before the end of the year. The analyst believes that the current market conditions, coupled with the positive impact of the Runes protocol, create a fertile environment for substantial price gains.

Lee 的樂觀情緒延伸到了比特幣在年底前達到 15 萬美元的可能性。該分析師認為，當前的市場狀況，加上符文協議的正面影響，為價格大幅上漲創造了肥沃的環境。

"I think BTC will definitely hit an all-time high this year," Lee said. "We think something like $150,000 is possible."

「我認為比特幣今年肯定會創下歷史新高，」李說。 “我們認為 15 萬美元左右是可能的。”

MVRV Ratio Signals Buying Opportunity

MVRV 比率預示著買入機會

Meanwhile, on-chain data provides valuable insights into the market's sentiment and potential price movements. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which measures the profit or loss of Bitcoin holders, has recently dipped below its average.

同時，鏈上數據提供了有關市場情緒和潛在價格變動的寶貴見解。衡量比特幣持有者利潤或損失的市場價值與已實現價值（MVRV）比率最近已低於平均值。

Historically, such dips have coincided with opportunities to acquire Bitcoin at relatively lower prices. As of April 21st, the MVRV ratio stood at 88.8%, indicating that a substantial portion of the Bitcoin supply is still profitable.

從歷史上看，這種下跌與以相對較低的價格購買比特幣的機會同時發生。截至 4 月 21 日，MVRV 比率為 88.8%，顯示相當一部分比特幣供應仍然有利可圖。

Analyst Nebraskangooner suggests that a move towards $75,000 could signal a bottom in the market, while a drop below $58,000 would suggest otherwise.

分析師 Nebraskangooner 表示，價格升至 75,000 美元可能預示著市場觸底，而跌破 58,000 美元則表明情況並非如此。

Consolidation Phase or Further Declines?

整合階段還是進一步下跌？

Despite the bullish predictions, some analysts caution that the recent cooling in the market, as evidenced by the declining profitable supply ratio, could lead to a period of consolidation or even further declines.

儘管預測樂觀，但一些分析師警告稱，近期市場降溫（獲利供應比率下降就是明證）可能會導致一段時期的盤整甚至進一步下跌。

The percentage of the Bitcoin supply in profit has cooled since the highs earlier this year, reaching levels last seen in February 2024, when Bitcoin traded at $44,000. This trend suggests that market sentiment may be cooling, potentially leading to a consolidation phase before further price increases.

自今年稍早的高點以來，比特幣供應占利潤的比例已經下降，達到 2024 年 2 月的水平，當時比特幣的交易價格為 44,000 美元。這一趨勢表明市場情緒可能正在降溫，可能導致價格進一步上漲之前進入盤整階段。

Conclusion

結論

The Bitcoin halving has ignited a flurry of speculation and analysis, with experts expressing a range of opinions on the cryptocurrency's future. While the market has experienced some volatility following the event, analysts like Tom Lee remain bullish, predicting significant price appreciation in the coming months.

比特幣減半引發了一系列猜測和分析，專家們對加密貨幣的未來表達了一系列觀點。儘管市場在事件發生後經歷了一些波動，但 Tom Lee 等分析師仍然看漲，預計未來幾個月價格將大幅上漲。

On-chain data provides valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements, with the MVRV ratio hinting at buying opportunities. However, cautious analysts warn that the recent cooling in the market could lead to a period of consolidation or further declines.

鏈上數據提供了有關市場情緒和潛在價格變動的寶貴見解，MVRV 比率暗示了購買機會。然而，謹慎的分析師警告稱，近期市場降溫可能導致一段時間的盤整或進一步下跌。

As the market continues to evolve, investors would be wise to monitor these developments closely and make informed investment decisions based on their own research and analysis.

隨著市場的不斷發展，投資者應該明智地密切關注這些發展，並根據自己的研究和分析做出明智的投資決策。