自从1月20日达到创纪录的高度超过109,000美元以来，比特币的价格下跌了24％

对比凸显了驱动这两个资产价格的不同因素。更重要的是，这也表明，寻求价值存储的投资者，甚至是与股票市场不相关的​​替代投资，可能会使黄金比比特币更好。

Their fortunes, however, have diverged lately. Bitcoin's price has declined 24% since hitting a record high of more than $109,000 on Jan. 20—the day crypto-friendly President Donald Trump took office.

然而，他们的命运最近有所不同。自从1月20日达到创纪录的109,000美元以来，比特币的价格下跌了24％，这是当天对加密货币友好的总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）上任。

Gold, on the other hand, has kept rallying, gaining nearly 8% in the same span. (Both still have seen handsome gains over the past year.)

另一方面，黄金在同一跨度中持续了近8％。 （在过去的一年中，两者仍然看到了漂亮的收益。）

The contrast highlights the different factors driving the two assets' prices. More importantly, it also suggests that investors looking for a store of value—or even an alternative investment uncorrelated to the stock market—would probably do better with gold over Bitcoin.

对比凸显了驱动这两个资产价格的不同因素。更重要的是，这也表明，寻求价值存储的投资者，甚至是与股票市场不相关的​​替代投资，可能会使黄金比比特币更好。

"Gold is a safe haven," says Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at Yardeni Research. Yardeni sees gold prices hitting $4,000 by the end of the decade, but doesn't maintain a Bitcoin target. "While there are probably some people who tell themselves they're buying Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against U.S. inflation or the financial system, what it really comes down to is that it's a super speculative asset."

Yardeni Research首席市场策略师Eric Wallerstein说：“黄金是一个避风港。” Yardeni看到黄金价格到本十年末达到4,000美元，但没有保持比特币目标。 “虽然可能有些人告诉自己，他们正在购买比特币作为对美国通货膨胀或金融体系的长期对冲，但真正归结为这是一项超级投机资产。”

Bitcoin's annual price volatility has been about 50% in recent years, according to BlackRock, compared with about 15% for gold.

根据贝莱德（Blackrock）的数据，近年来比特币的年度价格波动率约为50％，而黄金的价格约为15％。

Bitcoin's identity as a risk asset has come front and center lately, as big-name growth stocks have also stalled alongside the digital currency, which traded at $84,525 on Friday. Trump's decision to launch a $Trump meme coin—interpreted cynically by some crypto fans—may be one reason for fading investor enthusiasm. But a general uneasiness about the tech sector and broader economy could be another.

比特币作为风险资产的身份最近出现了，因为大牌增长股票也与数字货币旁停滞不前，该数字货币周五的交易价格为84,525美元。特朗普决定发起$特朗普的模因硬币（由一些加密货币粉丝愤世嫉俗地解释）可能是逐渐消失投资者热情的原因之一。但是，对技术部门和更广泛的经济的普遍不安可能是另一个。

Worries about the breakneck pace of artificial intelligence spending, tariffs, and government budget cuts—along with weak consumer sentiment numbers—have stoked stock market uncertainty. For instance, the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which drove stock market returns in 2024, have fallen roughly 7% since Election Day through Friday afternoon.

担心人工智能支出，关税和政府预算削减的速度（以及消费者情绪数字较弱）都遭受了股票市场的不确定性。例如，自2024年推动股票市场回报的巨大七种股票以来，自选举日至周五下午以来，大约下降了7％。

"When Trump won the election, there was a rush of exuberance into everything," says Trade Nation Senior Market Analyst David Morrison. "Now the rally is tired...there is a bit of a de-risking going on."

贸易国高级市场分析师戴维·莫里森（David Morrison）说：“当特朗普赢得选举时，一切都涌入了一切。” “现在集会累了……有点危险。”

Bitcoin's current struggles are especially notable because—in theory—right now should be good times. The cryptocurrency rocketed after Trump's election victory, amid promises of a friendly regulatory environment and perhaps even a Bitcoin strategic reserve. The digital asset appeared to be gaining more mainstream acceptance in the investment community, as more asset managers, including BlackRock, began sponsoring Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

比特币目前的斗争特别值得注意，因为从理论上讲，现在应该是美好时光。在特朗普大选胜利之后，加密货币在有友好的监管环境甚至比特币战略储备的承诺之中迅速发起。随着包括贝莱德（Blackrock）在内的更多资产管理人员开始赞助比特币交易所交易的资金，数字资产似乎在投资界获得了更多主流认可。

Meanwhile, the market jitters hurting Bitcoin do, in fact, mean good times for gold. The precious metal settled at $2,848.50 Friday, just 3.9% below its record high of $2,963 hit on Monday. Gold is in the middle of a multiyear bull market that began around the time of Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

同时，实际上，市场损害比特币的市场却意味着黄金的美好时光。周五，贵金属定价为2,848.50美元，比周一打击2,963美元的创纪录高点3.9％。黄金正处于俄罗斯2022年2月入侵乌克兰时期的多年牛市中间。

Geopolitical worries have always been bullish for gold. The U.S. decision to freeze Russian assets days after the invasion spooked central banks around the world—they began buying gold to supplement dollar reserves, which they worried could be at risk if they crossed the U.S. Last year, central banks represented about 20% of gold demand, roughly double from 2021.

地缘政治的担忧一直是黄金的看涨。在入侵几天后，美国决定冻结俄罗斯资产的决定震惊了全球央行 - 他们开始购买黄金来补充美元储备，如果去年越过美国越过美国，他们担心这可能会面临风险，中央银行约占黄金需求的20％，大约是2021年的两倍。

Most of all there is Trump's attempt to reset the U.S.'s relationship with Russia's Vladimir Putin. While the move may pay dividends if there is ultimately peace in Ukraine, so far Trump's angling has upset longstanding strategic relationships and raised questions about the strength of U.S. relationships elsewhere around the globe, like Taiwan.

最重要的是，特朗普试图重置美国与俄罗斯弗拉基米尔·普京的关系。虽然此举可能会带来好处，如果乌克兰最终有和平，那么到目前为止，特朗普的垂钓者使长期以来的战略关系感到困扰，并提出了有关我们在全球其他地方（例如台湾）之间关系的质疑。

Trump's governing style means geopolitical tensions and government uncertainty will likely continue—supporting gold prices in the process. Just consider the will-he or won't-he tariff drama with Canada and Mexico; or the firing and rehiring of government employees.

特朗普的管理风格意味着地缘政治紧张局势和政府的不确定性可能会继续 - 在此过程中支持黄金价格。只需考虑他的意志或不会与加拿大和墨西哥的关税戏剧；或解雇和重新雇用政府雇员。

"Its clear previous alliances are being redrawn" says Nitesh Shah, head of commodities research at WisdomTree. "As a result of that I think we are seeing a lot more demand for gold as a hedge against the previous world order changing."

WisdomTree商品研究负责人Nitesh Shah说：“它显然正在重新划定。” “因此，我认为我们认为对黄金的需求更多，这是对以前的世界秩序改变的对冲。”

The upshot: Bitcoin may or may not be a wise long-term bet. But evidence from 2025 shows it is broadly fueled by investor risk appetites—more like a growth stock than an alternative asset like gold.

结果：比特币可能是一个明智的长期下注。但是2025年的证据表明，这是由投资者风险食欲大致助长的 - 比诸如黄金之类的替代资产更像增长股票。