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随着最近的美国总统大选尘埃落定,唐纳德·特朗普的胜利在金融市场引发了涟漪。
As the dust settles from the recent US presidential election, Donald Trump's victory has sent ripples through financial markets. Notably, JPMorgan analysts predict that both gold and bitcoin are poised for significant gains, highlighting the “debasement trade.”
随着最近的美国总统大选尘埃落定,唐纳德·特朗普的胜利在金融市场引发了涟漪。值得注意的是,摩根大通分析师预测,黄金和比特币都将大幅上涨,凸显了“贬值交易”。
The debasement trade is an investment strategy where investors turn to assets like gold and bitcoin to hedge against the weakening of a currency. This typically occurs during times of inflation or when governments adopt expansionary fiscal policies that increase debt and devalue the currency.
贬值交易是一种投资策略,投资者转向黄金和比特币等资产来对冲货币贬值。这种情况通常发生在通货膨胀时期或政府采取扩张性财政政策增加债务并使货币贬值时。
“The debasement trade “is likely to be reinforced by both tariffs and geopolitical tensions as well as an expansionary fiscal policy,” wrote JPMorgan's managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a report released on Wednesday. “After all, Bitcoin, the other component of the ‘debasement trade’ rallied after the Trump win.”
摩根大通董事总经理尼古拉斯·帕尼吉尔佐格鲁(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)在周三发布的一份报告中写道:“关税、地缘政治紧张局势以及扩张性财政政策可能会加剧贸易贬值。” “毕竟,‘贬值交易’的另一个组成部分——比特币在特朗普获胜后出现了反弹。”
Indeed, the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed to an all-time high of $76,200 on November 6, the day Trump's victory was confirmed. Currently trading around $75,100, Bitcoin's surge reflects market anticipation of favorable policies under the new administration.
事实上,11 月 6 日,即特朗普获胜确认日,比特币价格飙升至 76,200 美元的历史新高。目前比特币的交易价格约为 75,100 美元,比特币的飙升反映了市场对新政府有利政策的预期。
Among those closely following Bitcoin's performance is Michael Saylor, founder and chairman of MicroStrategy, the largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin. Saylor expressed his enthusiasm on X, sharing a photo of a Bitcoin flag atop the White House, accompanied by the caption:
密切关注比特币表现的人包括最大的比特币上市公司持有者 MicroStrategy 的创始人兼董事长 Michael Saylor。 Saylor 表达了他对 X 的热情,分享了一张白宫顶上的比特币旗帜的照片,并附有说明文字:
“We have a #Bitcoin President.”
“我们有一位#Bitcoin 总统。”
Adding to the bullish outlook, MicroStrategy is also embarking on an aggressive bitcoin acquisition strategy, which they are calling the “21/21 plan.” The company aims to raise $42 billion over the next three years – $21 billion from equity and $21 billion from fixed-income securities – to invest in bitcoin.
除了看涨的前景之外,MicroStrategy 还开始实施积极的比特币收购策略,他们称之为“21/21 计划”。该公司计划在未来三年筹集 420 亿美元(其中 210 亿美元来自股权,210 亿美元来自固定收益证券)来投资比特币。
“For 2025 alone MicroStrategy would be investing $10 billion into bitcoin which is roughly equal to its cumulative purchases so far since mid-2020!” noted JPMorgan analysts. This substantial investment is bound to significantly impact Bitcoin's market dynamics.
“仅 2025 年,MicroStrategy 就将向比特币投资 100 亿美元,这大致相当于自 2020 年中期以来的累计购买量!”摩根大通分析师指出。这笔巨额投资必将对比特币的市场动态产生重大影响。
Moreover, Trump's pro-crypto stance has attracted international attention. Leaders like Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador, a country that adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, congratulated Trump, highlighting the global implications of US crypto policy changes.
此外,特朗普支持加密货币的立场也引起了国际关注。采用比特币作为法定货币的萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克莱(Nayib Bukele)等领导人向特朗普表示祝贺,强调了美国加密货币政策变化的全球影响。
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump made several promises related to cryptocurrency, which if fulfilled, could create a more favorable regulatory environment in the United States. Among his pledges are firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, establishing a National Bitcoin Reserve, and eliminating capital gains tax on Bitcoin transactions.
特朗普在 2024 年总统竞选期间做出了多项与加密货币相关的承诺,如果这些承诺得以兑现,可能会在美国创造更有利的监管环境。他的承诺包括解雇 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler)、建立国家比特币储备以及取消比特币交易的资本利得税。
Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts also emphasize the importance of central bank activities in shaping the future of gold. After significant gold purchases in 2022 following the Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russia, central banks like China's have paused acquisitions. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions may prompt renewed diversification away from dollar reserves into gold.
与此同时,摩根大通分析师还强调了央行活动对于塑造黄金未来的重要性。乌克兰冲突和俄罗斯制裁导致 2022 年大量购买黄金后,中国等央行已暂停购买黄金。然而,持续的地缘政治紧张局势可能会促使人们重新从美元储备转向黄金储备。
Interestingly, retail investors have been increasing their holdings in both gold and Bitcoin, with heightened investments in ETFs since last summer. As Trump's policies tend to favor alternative assets, JPMorgan expects this trend to continue into 2025.
有趣的是,自去年夏天以来,散户投资者一直在增加黄金和比特币的持有量,并增加了对 ETF 的投资。由于特朗普的政策倾向于另类资产,摩根大通预计这一趋势将持续到 2025 年。
Lastly, when asked about a 2025 price target for Bitcoin, Panigirtzoglou stated that they “are positive on Bitcoin into 2025”, but refrained from specifying a figure. Nevertheless, the combined effect of policy changes, corporate investments, and global market dynamics suggests a bullish horizon for both Bitcoin and gold.
最后,当被问及比特币 2025 年的价格目标时,Panigirtzoglou 表示,他们“对 2025 年比特币持积极态度”,但没有具体说明具体数字。尽管如此,政策变化、企业投资和全球市场动态的综合影响表明比特币和黄金都看涨。
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