比特币幂律揭示了加密货币的价格命运

基于物理的价格模型比特币幂律的创建者公布了即将到来的市场周期的预计 BTC 目标。该模型预测 2025 年 11 月达到 218,875 美元的峰值，随后于 2026 年 12 月达到 96,677 美元的谷底。幂律断言，比特币的轨迹遵循幂律与时间的关系，类似于物理学定律。

The Bitcoin Power Law: Unveiling the Future of Cryptocurrency Prices

比特币幂律：揭示加密货币价格的未来

Introduction

介绍

The realm of cryptocurrency has captivated investors worldwide, with Bitcoin (BTC) emerging as the frontrunner. As the market evolves, various price models have emerged, aiming to predict the future trajectory of Bitcoin. Among these models, the Bitcoin Power Law has garnered significant attention for its unique approach.

加密货币领域吸引了全世界的投资者，其中比特币（BTC）成为领跑者。随着市场的发展，出现了各种价格模型，旨在预测比特币的未来轨迹。在这些模型中，比特币幂律因其独特的方法而受到广泛关注。

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory

比特币幂律理论

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory, formulated by former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi, postulates that Bitcoin's price exhibits a "power law" relationship with time. This relationship mirrors the principles of physics, where certain phenomena follow a predictable pattern described by power laws. In essence, the theory suggests that Bitcoin's price behavior adheres to a specific mathematical equation.

比特币幂律理论由前物理学教授乔瓦尼·桑托斯塔西 (Giovanni Santostasi) 提出，假设比特币的价格与时间呈现“幂律”关系。这种关系反映了物理原理，其中某些现象遵循幂律描述的可预测模式。从本质上讲，该理论表明比特币的价格行为遵循特定的数学方程。

Santostasi elaborates, "Price is a power law, hash rate is a power law, adoption is a power law. We even understand why and have a full theory about it."

Santostasi 阐述道，“价格是幂律，算力是幂律，采用率是幂律。我们甚至理解其中的原因，并对此有完整的理论。”

Application of the Power Law

幂律的应用

Based on the Power Law Theory, Santostasi has developed a price model that forecasts Bitcoin's price targets over multiple market cycles. According to the model, Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak price of approximately $218,875 in November 2025, followed by a subsequent decline to $96,677 in December 2026.

基于幂律理论，Santostasi 开发了一种价格模型，可以预测比特币在多个市场周期内的价格目标。根据该模型，比特币预计将在 2025 年 11 月达到约 218,875 美元的峰值，随后于 2026 年 12 月跌至 96,677 美元。

The model also predicts long-term price trajectories, with BTC projected to reach $1,212,799 in November 2033 and $802,399 in December 2034. Santostasi emphasizes that the Power Law is not merely a model but a comprehensive theory that elucidates the underlying mechanisms governing Bitcoin's behavior.

该模型还预测了长期价格轨迹，预计 BTC 将于 2033 年 11 月达到 1,212,799 美元，到 2034 年 12 月达到 802,399 美元。Santostasi 强调，幂律不仅仅是一个模型，而是一个综合理论，阐明了控制比特币行为的基本机制。

Distinction from Other Price Models

与其他价格模型的区别

Santostasi vehemently dismisses other popular price models, such as Plan B's "stock-to-flow" model. The stock-to-flow model forecasts exponential gains for Bitcoin, assuming a diminishing supply inflation following each halving. Santostasi criticizes this model for its flawed conceptual and mathematical foundations.

桑托斯塔西强烈反对其他流行的价格模型，例如 Plan B 的“库存流量”模型。库存流量模型预测比特币将呈指数级增长，假设每次减半后供应通胀都会减弱。桑托斯塔西批评该模型的概念和数学基础有缺陷。

He further asserts, "S2F is deeply wrong conceptually, logically, mathematically, from a construction point of view. It is almost poison because it gives the wrong information about Bitcoin, basically a magic trick and a lie."

他进一步断言，“从构建的角度来看，S2F 在概念上、逻辑上、数学上都是严重错误的。它几乎是毒药，因为它提供了有关比特币的错误信息，基本上是一个魔术和谎言。”

Validation and Reliability

验证和可靠性

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory relies on fundamental principles of physics and mathematics. Santostasi maintains that it is not a speculative model but a rigorous theory supported by empirical evidence. The model's predictions have shown remarkable accuracy in the past, bolstering its credibility among investors.

比特币幂律理论依赖于物理和数学的基本原理。桑托斯塔西认为，这不是一个推测模型，而是一个有经验证据支持的严格理论。该模型的预测在过去表现出了惊人的准确性，增强了其在投资者中的可信度。

Implications for Investors

对投资者的影响

For investors seeking to navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market, the Bitcoin Power Law provides valuable insights into the potential future price trajectory of Bitcoin. The model's predictions can assist investors in formulating informed investment strategies, managing risk, and optimizing their portfolios.

对于寻求应对加密货币市场复杂性的投资者来说，比特币幂律为比特币未来潜在价格轨迹提供了宝贵的见解。该模型的预测可以帮助投资者制定明智的投资策略、管理风险和优化投资组合。

Moreover, the theory underscores the importance of understanding the underlying dynamics that drive Bitcoin's behavior. By comprehending the power law relationship, investors can make informed decisions based on a deeper understanding of the cryptocurrency's market dynamics.

此外，该理论强调了理解驱动比特币行为的潜在动力的重要性。通过理解幂律关系，投资者可以根据对加密货币市场动态的更深入了解做出明智的决策。

Conclusion

结论

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory offers a novel approach to understanding the future price trajectory of Bitcoin. Its rigorous mathematical framework, grounded in the principles of physics, provides a compelling explanation for Bitcoin's long-term behavior. For investors seeking to harness the potential of cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin Power Law Theory serves as an invaluable tool, empowering them to make informed decisions and navigate the evolving market landscape.

比特币幂律理论提供了一种理解比特币未来价格轨迹的新颖方法。其严格的数学框架以物理原理为基础，为比特币的长期行为提供了令人信服的解释。对于寻求利用加密货币潜力的投资者来说，比特币幂律理论是一个宝贵的工具，使他们能够做出明智的决策并驾驭不断变化的市场格局。