比特幣冪律揭示了加密貨幣的價格命運

基於物理的價格模型比特幣冪律的創建者公佈了即將到來的市場週期的預期 BTC 目標。該模型預測 2025 年 11 月達到 218,875 美元的峰值，隨後於 2026 年 12 月達到 96,677 美元的谷底。

The Bitcoin Power Law: Unveiling the Future of Cryptocurrency Prices

比特幣冪律：揭示加密貨幣價格的未來

Introduction

介紹

The realm of cryptocurrency has captivated investors worldwide, with Bitcoin (BTC) emerging as the frontrunner. As the market evolves, various price models have emerged, aiming to predict the future trajectory of Bitcoin. Among these models, the Bitcoin Power Law has garnered significant attention for its unique approach.

加密貨幣領域吸引了全世界的投資者，其中比特幣（BTC）成為領導者。隨著市場的發展，出現了各種價格模型，旨在預測比特幣的未來軌跡。在這些模型中，比特幣冪律因其獨特的方法而受到廣泛關注。

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory

比特幣冪律理論

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory, formulated by former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi, postulates that Bitcoin's price exhibits a "power law" relationship with time. This relationship mirrors the principles of physics, where certain phenomena follow a predictable pattern described by power laws. In essence, the theory suggests that Bitcoin's price behavior adheres to a specific mathematical equation.

比特幣冪律理論由前物理學教授 Giovanni Santostasi 提出，假設比特幣的價格與時間呈現「冪律」關係。這種關係反映了物理原理，其中某些現象遵循冪律描述的可預測模式。從本質上講，該理論表明比特幣的價格行為遵循特定的數學方程式。

Santostasi elaborates, "Price is a power law, hash rate is a power law, adoption is a power law. We even understand why and have a full theory about it."

Santostasi 闡述道，“價格是冪律，算力是冪律，採用率是冪律。我們甚至理解其中的原因，並對此有完整的理論。”

Application of the Power Law

冪律的應用

Based on the Power Law Theory, Santostasi has developed a price model that forecasts Bitcoin's price targets over multiple market cycles. According to the model, Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak price of approximately $218,875 in November 2025, followed by a subsequent decline to $96,677 in December 2026.

基於冪律理論，Santostasi 開發了一種價格模型，可以預測比特幣在多個市場週期內的價格目標。根據該模型，比特幣預計將在 2025 年 11 月達到約 218,875 美元的峰值，隨後於 2026 年 12 月跌至 96,677 美元。

The model also predicts long-term price trajectories, with BTC projected to reach $1,212,799 in November 2033 and $802,399 in December 2034. Santostasi emphasizes that the Power Law is not merely a model but a comprehensive theory that elucidates the underlying mechanisms governing Bitcoin's behavior.

該模型還預測了長期價格軌跡，預計BTC 將於2033 年11 月達到1,212,799 美元，到2034 年12 月達到802,399 美元。比特幣行為的基本機制。

Distinction from Other Price Models

與其他價格模型的區別

Santostasi vehemently dismisses other popular price models, such as Plan B's "stock-to-flow" model. The stock-to-flow model forecasts exponential gains for Bitcoin, assuming a diminishing supply inflation following each halving. Santostasi criticizes this model for its flawed conceptual and mathematical foundations.

桑托斯塔西強烈反對其他流行的價格模型，例如 Plan B 的「庫存流量」模型。庫存流量模型預測比特幣將呈指數級增長，假設每次減半後供應通膨都會減弱。桑托斯塔西批評該模型的概念和數學基礎有缺陷。

He further asserts, "S2F is deeply wrong conceptually, logically, mathematically, from a construction point of view. It is almost poison because it gives the wrong information about Bitcoin, basically a magic trick and a lie."

他進一步斷言，「從構建的角度來看，S2F 在概念上、邏輯上、數學上都是嚴重錯誤的。它幾乎是毒藥，因為它提供了有關比特幣的錯誤信息，基本上是一個魔術和謊言。

Validation and Reliability

驗證和可靠性

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory relies on fundamental principles of physics and mathematics. Santostasi maintains that it is not a speculative model but a rigorous theory supported by empirical evidence. The model's predictions have shown remarkable accuracy in the past, bolstering its credibility among investors.

比特幣冪律理論依賴物理和數學的基本原理。桑托斯塔西認為，這不是推測模型，而是一個有經驗證據支持的嚴格理論。該模型的預測在過去表現出了驚人的準確性，增強了其在投資者中的可信度。

Implications for Investors

對投資者的影響

For investors seeking to navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market, the Bitcoin Power Law provides valuable insights into the potential future price trajectory of Bitcoin. The model's predictions can assist investors in formulating informed investment strategies, managing risk, and optimizing their portfolios.

對於尋求應對加密貨幣市場複雜性的投資者來說，比特幣冪律為比特幣未來潛在價格軌跡提供了寶貴的見解。該模型的預測可以幫助投資者制定明智的投資策略、管理風險和優化投資組合。

Moreover, the theory underscores the importance of understanding the underlying dynamics that drive Bitcoin's behavior. By comprehending the power law relationship, investors can make informed decisions based on a deeper understanding of the cryptocurrency's market dynamics.

此外，該理論強調了理解驅動比特幣行為的潛在動力的重要性。透過理解冪律關係，投資人可以根據對加密貨幣市場動態的更深入了解做出明智的決策。

Conclusion

結論

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory offers a novel approach to understanding the future price trajectory of Bitcoin. Its rigorous mathematical framework, grounded in the principles of physics, provides a compelling explanation for Bitcoin's long-term behavior. For investors seeking to harness the potential of cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin Power Law Theory serves as an invaluable tool, empowering them to make informed decisions and navigate the evolving market landscape.

比特幣冪律理論提供了一種理解比特幣未來價格軌跡的新穎方法。其嚴格的數學框架以物理原理為基礎，為比特幣的長期行為提供了令人信服的解釋。對於尋求利用加密貨幣潛力的投資者來說，比特幣冪律理論是一個寶貴的工具，使他們能夠做出明智的決策並駕馭不斷變化的市場格局。