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比特币是引人注目的推动者,周一触及一个月高位,在美联储上周大幅降息后维持了涨势
Bitcoin rose on Monday and was set to post gains for a fifth session as the dollar firmed against the yen ahead of a key vote for a new Japanese prime minister.
比特币周一上涨,并将连续第五个交易日上涨,因为在日本新首相的关键投票之前美元兑日元走强。
Most other major currencies were largely flat with Japanese markets closed for a holiday.
大多数其他主要货币基本持平,日本市场因假期休市。
Bitcoin added 0.8% to above $63,200, not far from one-month highs.
比特币上涨 0.8%,至 63,200 美元上方,距离一个月高点不远。
The Australian dollar was flat around $0.68, digesting its rise of more than 3% in less than two weeks.
澳元兑美元持平于0.68美元附近,消化了不到两周时间逾3%的涨幅。
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against major currencies, gained slightly to 100.8, continuing to stay above the one-year low it hit last week.
衡量美元兑主要货币汇率的美元指数小幅上涨至100.8,继续保持在上周触及的一年低点上方。
The dollar rose against the yen last week after both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at ultra-low levels.
在美联储和日本央行将利率维持在超低水平不变后,美元兑日元上周上涨。
The dollar hit its highest level in two weeks at 144.50 yen last week, but the BOJ’s indication that it was in no hurry to hike again put a pause to the yen’s sharp gains this month. The currency is still up 1.4% in September.
上周美元兑日元触及两周来最高水平144.50日元,但日本央行表示不急于再次加息,令日元本月大幅上涨暂停。 9月份该货币仍上涨1.4%。
With Japan closed for Autumnal Equinox Day, the main driver of trade was expectations around further Fed rate cuts and the gains those have spurred in equities, commodity currencies and other risk assets.
由于日本因秋分日休市,贸易的主要推动力是对美联储进一步降息的预期以及刺激股市、大宗商品货币和其他风险资产上涨的预期。
Fed futures traders have priced in 75 bps in rate cuts by the end of this year, and nearly 200 bps in cuts by December 2025 that will take the Fed’s policy rate by the end of 2025 to 2.75%, according to CME FedWatch.
根据 CME FedWatch 的数据,美联储期货交易员预计到今年年底降息 75 个基点,到 2025 年 12 月降息近 200 个基点,这将使美联储的政策利率到 2025 年底降至 2.75%。
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been steepening after the Fed’s rate cut, and investors added to bets favoring a second outsized rate cut after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday he was worried inflation may soon be running substantially below the central bank’s 2% target.
美联储降息后,美国国债收益率曲线一直陡峭,在美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)周五表示担心通胀可能很快大幅低于央行2%的目标后,投资者加大了对第二次大幅降息的押注。
Meanwhile, the majority of economists polled by Reuters anticipate two more 25 bps rate cuts at the Fed’s final two meetings this year.
与此同时,路透社调查的大多数经济学家预计,美联储今年最后两次会议将再降息两次,每次 25 个基点。
In weekend news, U.S. House Republicans unveiled a three-month stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown.
周末消息,美国众议院共和党公布了一项为期三个月的权宜之计法案,以避免政府关闭。
For the yen, an upcoming ruling party vote later this week to choose a new prime minister makes the BOJ’s job challenging in the coming months. A snap election is seen as likely in late October.
对于日元而言,执政党将于本周晚些时候投票选举新首相,这使得日本央行未来几个月的工作面临挑战。人们认为十月下旬可能会提前举行选举。
Liberal Democratic Party frontrunners to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have presented diverse views on monetary policy.
接替即将卸任首相岸田文雄的自民党领跑者对货币政策提出了不同的看法。
Sanae Takaichi – who would become the nation’s first female premier – is a reflationist who has accused the Bank of Japan of raising rates too soon. Shigeru Ishiba has said the central bank is “on the right policy track”, while Shinjiro Koizumi, son of charismatic ex-premier Junichiro Koizumi, has so far only said he will respect the BOJ’s independence.
将成为日本第一位女首相的高市早苗是一位通货再膨胀论者,她指责日本央行过早加息。石破茂表示,央行“走在正确的政策轨道上”,而魅力十足的前首相小泉纯一郎之子小泉进次郎迄今为止只表示,他将尊重日本央行的独立性。
The selection presents two-way risks for yen, Barclays analysts wrote on the weekend.
巴克莱分析师周末写道,这一选择给日元带来了双向风险。
“The main risk here is if Abenomics advocate Takaichi wins, this could pose headwinds to the BOJ’s policy-normalization plan and raise concerns about fiscal discipline,” they said.
他们表示:“这里的主要风险是,如果安倍经济学的倡导者高一获胜,这可能会给日本央行的政策正常化计划带来阻力,并引发人们对财政纪律的担忧。”
That could lead to a steeper Japanese bond curve and downside pressure on the yen as investors pare expectations for another rate rise, they said.
他们表示,随着投资者降低对再次加息的预期,这可能导致日本债券曲线更加陡峭,并给日元带来下行压力。
The Bank of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday, with its governor saying the central bank had to be “careful not to cut too fast or by too much.”
英国央行周四维持利率不变,行长表示央行必须“小心不要降息太快或降幅太大”。
The pound was down 0.1% at $1.3310, staying near highs it hit on Friday after the release of strong British retail sales data.
英镑下跌0.1%至1.3310美元,维持在周五公布强劲的英国零售销售数据后触及的高位附近。
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