你所有的比特币模型都被摧毁了

随着比特币接近历史新高，许多评论员对其价格接近 10 万美元感到难以置信，比特币爱好者们正在听从迈克尔·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 的旧预测

Bitcoin price models have a long history of being destroyed, as evidenced by the Speculative Bitcoin Adoption Price Theory, Stock-to-Flow, Bitcoin Power Law, and Bitcoin Rainbow Chart.

比特币价格模型有着被破坏的悠久历史，投机性比特币采用价格理论、库存流量、比特币幂律和比特币彩虹图都证明了这一点。

These models have failed to accurately predict bitcoin's price, leading some to conclude that it is impossible to predict the cryptocurrency's future value.

这些模型未能准确预测比特币的价格，导致一些人得出结论：无法预测加密货币的未来价值。

However, others argue that bitcoin's price is still influenced by a variety of factors, and that new models can be developed to take these factors into account.

然而，其他人认为比特币的价格仍然受到多种因素的影响，可以开发新的模型来考虑这些因素。

Ultimately, whether or not bitcoin will destroy all price models is a matter of semantics.

最终，比特币是否会摧毁所有价格模型是一个语义问题。

But for now, it seems that the vast majority of models are being destroyed.

但目前看来，绝大多数模型都在被摧毁。

Here's a brief overview of each model and how it was destroyed:

以下是每个模型及其被破坏方式的简要概述：

* **Speculative Bitcoin Adoption Price Theory:** This model predicted that bitcoin would reach $2,500 by November 2013, due to its increasing adoption.

* **投机性比特币采用价格理论：** 该模型预测，由于其采用率不断提高，到 2013 年 11 月，比特币将达到 2,500 美元。

However, bitcoin failed to even reach $1,200 that month, and it still has not reached anywhere close to near-universal adoption, as the model predicted would have happened by now.

然而，当月比特币甚至未能达到 1,200 美元，而且它仍然没有达到接近普遍采用的程度，正如模型预测的那样。

* **Stock-to-Flow:** This model, created by Plan B, used the ratio of bitcoin's existing supply to the new supply being generated to predict its price.

* **库存流量：** 该模型由 Plan B 创建，使用比特币现有供应量与正在生成的新供应量的比率来预测其价格。

For example, the model predicted that each halving would double the ratio and lead to a new wave of higher prices.

例如，该模型预测，每次减半都会使该比率翻倍，并导致新一波的价格上涨。

However, bitcoin easily broke this model by failing to reach $100,000 several times in 2021 through 2023, as Plan B predicted.

然而，正如 Plan B 预测的那样，比特币很容易打破了这一模式，在 2021 年至 2023 年期间多次未能达到 10 万美元。

* **Bitcoin Power Law:** This model, created by Giovanni Santostasi, claimed to be a reliable way to predict bitcoin's price range.

* **比特币幂律：** 该模型由 Giovanni Santostasi 创建，声称是预测比特币价格范围的可靠方法。

It charted a log of bitcoin’s price against the log of time, and its advocates said the price of bitcoin should grow at a bullish rate over time, rewarding people willing to withstand temporary price slumps.

它绘制了比特币价格与时间的对数图，其支持者表示，比特币的价格应该随着时间的推移以看涨的速度增长，奖励那些愿意承受暂时价格暴跌的人。

However, Santostasi eventually acknowledged that his law was not a predictive law at all but rather a descriptive, curve-fit calculation overlaid atop data.

然而，桑托斯塔西最终承认，他的定律根本不是预测定律，而是叠加在数据之上的描述性曲线拟合计算。

He also later betrayed the Bitcoin maximalists he had attracted and endorsed a so-called power law on Kusama, a small altcoin, leading to his ban from X Spaces by his one-time advocate Fred Krueger.

后来他还背叛了他所吸引的比特币最大化主义者，并支持了 Kusama（一种小型山寨币）的所谓幂律，导致他被曾经的支持者 Fred Krueger 禁止进入 X Spaces。

* **Bitcoin Rainbow Chart:** This chart, popularized by Eric Wall, used chromatic bands to denote possible future price ranges.

* **比特币彩虹图：** 该图表由 Eric Wall 推广，使用色带表示未来可能的价格范围。

The upper edge of the rainbow in red indicated the maximum price range and the lowest violet band indicates how low analysts thought bitcoin could fall.

红色彩虹的上边缘表示最大价格范围，最低紫色带表示分析师认为比特币可能下跌的低点。

As Plan B's Stock-to-Flow lost credibility, Wall began joking about the Rainbow Chart.

随着 B 计划的存量流量比失去可信度，沃尔开始拿彩虹图开玩笑。

The playful silliness of the rainbow image became a clever way to profess understanding of the role of pricing models in the bitcoin community while acknowledging its expanding, unpredictable volatility.

彩虹图像的俏皮愚蠢成为一种聪明的方式，可以表达对比特币社区中定价模型的作用的理解，同时承认其不断扩大的、不可预测的波动性。

Nonetheless, some long-term investors still prefer its colorful predictions.

尽管如此，一些长期投资者仍然更喜欢其丰富多彩的预测。

The Rainbow Chart actually originated in 2014. It faded from popularity for a few years but reemerged after Wall's endorsement in 2020.

彩虹图实际上起源于2014年。它曾一度销声匿迹了几年，但在2020年沃尔的代言后又重新流行起来。

Bitcoin broke below the Rainbow Chart during the bear market of 2022, however.

然而，比特币在 2022 年熊市期间跌破了彩虹图。

As a good-natured compromise, some people tried to keep its colorful meme alive by adding an indigo color below the violet band.

作为一种善意的妥协，一些人试图通过在紫罗兰色带下方添加靛蓝色来保持其丰富多彩的模因的活力。