你所有的比特幣模型都被摧毀了

隨著比特幣接近歷史高點，許多評論員對其價格接近 10 萬美元感到難以置信，比特幣愛好者們正在聽從邁克爾·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 的舊預測

Bitcoin price models have a long history of being destroyed, as evidenced by the Speculative Bitcoin Adoption Price Theory, Stock-to-Flow, Bitcoin Power Law, and Bitcoin Rainbow Chart.

比特幣價格模型有著被破壞的悠久歷史，投機性比特幣採用價格理論、庫存流量、比特幣冪律和比特幣彩虹圖都證明了這一點。

These models have failed to accurately predict bitcoin's price, leading some to conclude that it is impossible to predict the cryptocurrency's future value.

這些模型未能準確預測比特幣的價格，導致一些人得出結論：無法預測加密貨幣的未來價值。

However, others argue that bitcoin's price is still influenced by a variety of factors, and that new models can be developed to take these factors into account.

然而，其他人認為比特幣的價格仍然受到多種因素的影響，可以開發新的模型來考慮這些因素。

Ultimately, whether or not bitcoin will destroy all price models is a matter of semantics.

最終，比特幣是否會摧毀所有價格模型是一個語義問題。

But for now, it seems that the vast majority of models are being destroyed.

但目前看來，絕大多數模型都在被摧毀。

Here's a brief overview of each model and how it was destroyed:

以下是每個模型及其被破壞方式的簡要概述：

* **Speculative Bitcoin Adoption Price Theory:** This model predicted that bitcoin would reach $2,500 by November 2013, due to its increasing adoption.

* **投機性比特幣採用價格理論：** 該模型預測，由於其採用率不斷提高，到 2013 年 11 月，比特幣將達到 2,500 美元。

However, bitcoin failed to even reach $1,200 that month, and it still has not reached anywhere close to near-universal adoption, as the model predicted would have happened by now.

然而，當月比特幣甚至未能達到 1,200 美元，而且它仍然沒有達到接近普遍採用的程度，正如模型預測的那樣。

* **Stock-to-Flow:** This model, created by Plan B, used the ratio of bitcoin's existing supply to the new supply being generated to predict its price.

* **庫存流量：** 此模型由 Plan B 創建，使用比特幣現有供應量與正在產生的新供應量的比率來預測其價格。

For example, the model predicted that each halving would double the ratio and lead to a new wave of higher prices.

例如，該模型預測，每次減半都會使該比率翻倍，並導致新一波的價格上漲。

However, bitcoin easily broke this model by failing to reach $100,000 several times in 2021 through 2023, as Plan B predicted.

然而，正如 Plan B 預測的那樣，比特幣很容易打破了這一模式，在 2021 年至 2023 年期間多次未能達到 10 萬美元。

* **Bitcoin Power Law:** This model, created by Giovanni Santostasi, claimed to be a reliable way to predict bitcoin's price range.

* **比特幣冪律：** 該模型由 Giovanni Santostasi 創建，聲稱是預測比特幣價格範圍的可靠方法。

It charted a log of bitcoin’s price against the log of time, and its advocates said the price of bitcoin should grow at a bullish rate over time, rewarding people willing to withstand temporary price slumps.

它繪製了比特幣價格與時間的對數圖，其支持者表示，比特幣的價格應該隨著時間的推移以看漲的速度增長，獎勵那些願意承受暫時價格暴跌的人。

However, Santostasi eventually acknowledged that his law was not a predictive law at all but rather a descriptive, curve-fit calculation overlaid atop data.

然而，桑托斯塔西最終承認，他的定律根本不是預測定律，而是疊加在資料之上的描述性曲線擬合計算。

He also later betrayed the Bitcoin maximalists he had attracted and endorsed a so-called power law on Kusama, a small altcoin, leading to his ban from X Spaces by his one-time advocate Fred Krueger.

後來他也背叛了他所吸引的比特幣最大化主義者，並支持了 Kusama（一種小型山寨幣）的所謂冪律，導致他被曾經的支持者 Fred Krueger 禁止進入 X Spaces。

* **Bitcoin Rainbow Chart:** This chart, popularized by Eric Wall, used chromatic bands to denote possible future price ranges.

* **比特幣彩虹圖：** 此圖表由 Eric Wall 推廣，使用色帶表示未來可能的價格範圍。

The upper edge of the rainbow in red indicated the maximum price range and the lowest violet band indicates how low analysts thought bitcoin could fall.

紅色彩虹的上緣表示最大價格範圍，最低紫色帶錶示分析師認為比特幣可能下跌的低點。

As Plan B's Stock-to-Flow lost credibility, Wall began joking about the Rainbow Chart.

隨著 B 計畫的存量比失去可信度，沃爾開始拿彩虹圖開玩笑。

The playful silliness of the rainbow image became a clever way to profess understanding of the role of pricing models in the bitcoin community while acknowledging its expanding, unpredictable volatility.

彩虹圖像的俏皮愚蠢成為一種聰明的方式，可以表達對比特幣社區中定價模型的作用的理解，同時承認其不斷擴大的、不可預測的波動性。

Nonetheless, some long-term investors still prefer its colorful predictions.

儘管如此，一些長期投資者仍然更喜歡其豐富多彩的預測。

The Rainbow Chart actually originated in 2014. It faded from popularity for a few years but reemerged after Wall's endorsement in 2020.

彩虹圖其實起源於2014年。

Bitcoin broke below the Rainbow Chart during the bear market of 2022, however.

然而，比特幣在 2022 年熊市期間跌破了彩虹圖。

As a good-natured compromise, some people tried to keep its colorful meme alive by adding an indigo color below the violet band.

作為一種善意的妥協，有些人試圖透過在紫羅蘭色帶下方添加靛藍色來保持其豐富多彩的迷因的活力。