比特幣（BTC）價格預測：校正是否過後？公牛努力收回$ 90,000

比特幣目前的交易高於關鍵支持，但公牛隊正在努力恢復90,000美元的水平，這一門檻可能標誌著有意義的恢復集會的開始。

Bitcoin is trading above critical support but bulls are struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level, a threshold that could signal the start of a meaningful recovery rally. Despite brief rebounds, BTC remains under pressure as market sentiment is still fragile.

比特幣的交易高於關鍵支持，但公牛隊正在努力收回90,000美元的水平，這一門檻可能標誌著有意義的恢復集會的開始。儘管有短暫的籃板，但由於市場情緒仍然脆弱，BTC仍處於壓力下。

Recently, US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs has only added to the uncertainty. His erratic behavior continues to shake financial markets, pushing risk assets like Bitcoin into deeper volatility.

最近，美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布新的關稅，這只會增加了不確定性。他不穩定的行為繼續動搖金融市場，將像比特幣這樣的風險資產推向了更深的波動。

Now, Bitcoin faces a crucial test. Selling pressure appears to be mounting once again, and if bulls can’t regain control soon, the market could slip into a broader correction.

現在，比特幣面臨著關鍵的測試。銷售壓力似乎再次加劇了，如果公牛無法盡快恢復控制，市場可能會陷入更廣泛的更正。

On-chain data adds weight to this concern. According to CryptoQuant, the Price to Distribution by Realized Supply Ratio — a key indicator that compares Bitcoin’s price to realized supply — is currently at a historically low level.

鏈上的數據增加了這種關注點。根據CryptoQuant的說法，通過實現的供應比（將比特幣的價格與已實現的供應供應比較的關鍵指標）的分配價格目前處於歷史較低水平。

This metric typically signals one of two outcomes: either a local bottom in a bull market or the early stages of a bear market. With BTC stuck between critical resistance and support, traders are watching closely. Whether Bitcoin rebounds or breaks down from here may define the tone for the coming weeks in the crypto space.

該指標通常標誌著兩個結果之一：牛市的本地底部或熊市的早期階段。隨著BTC的關鍵阻力和支持，交易者正在密切關注。是比特幣反彈還是從這里分解，可以定義加密貨幣空間中未來幾週的基調。

Bitcoin Correction Deepens Amid Economic Turmoil

經濟動蕩的比特幣校正會加深

Bitcoin is trading at critical levels, showing signs that the correction phase that began in January may not be over. BTC is now 22% down from its all-time high, and momentum continues to lean bearish as macroeconomic instability and trade war fears drive widespread market uncertainty.

比特幣正在關鍵水平的交易，表明一月份開始的校正階段可能沒有結束。 BTC現在比其歷史最高高的22％下降了22％，隨著宏觀經濟不穩定和貿易戰的恐懼促進了廣泛的市場不確定性，動量繼續傾斜看跌。

With global financial markets rattled by tariffs and growing geopolitical tensions, risk assets like Bitcoin are facing intense selling pressure. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious, with many analysts now warning of a potential recession.

隨著全球金融市場受到關稅和日益嚴重的緊張局勢的影響，像比特幣這樣的風險資產正面臨著巨大的銷售壓力。投資者越來越謹慎，許多分析師現在警告潛在的衰退。

Safe havens such as gold are rallying, while equities continue to slide — a classic signal of risk-off sentiment. In this environment, Bitcoin is struggling to regain bullish momentum, unable to break above critical resistance zones.

諸如黃金之類的避風港正在集會，而股票繼續滑落，這是一種經典的風險信號。在這種環境中，比特幣正在努力恢復看漲的勢頭，無法超越關鍵阻力區。

Top analyst Axel Adler shared important insights supporting this cautious outlook. He pointed to a key on-chain metric that tracks Bitcoin’s price in relation to its “realized supply.” The chart uses a 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30D) of this ratio, represented by a purple line.

頂級分析師阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler）分享了支持這種謹慎前景的重要見解。他指出了一個關鍵的鏈度指標，該指標跟踪比特幣的價格與其“已實現供應”有關。該圖使用該比率的30天簡單移動平均線（SMA-30D），以紫色線表示。

Historically, when this line drops below a defined lower boundary, it has indicated either a local correction bottom or the start of a bear market — both times Bitcoin was significantly undervalued.

從歷史上看，當這條線降至定義的下邊界以下時，它表明局部校正底部或熊市的開始 - 兩次比特幣都被大大低估了。

The chart highlights two previous instances of this signal during major correction phases: one following the COVID-19 crash and another during the mining ban in China.

該圖表突出了該信號在重大校正階段之前的兩個實例：一個在Covid-19崩潰之後，另一個在中國的採礦禁令期間。

With the indicator once again nearing these historic levels, it suggests Bitcoin may currently be undervalued. However, whether this marks the end of the correction or the beginning of a deeper bear cycle remains unclear.

隨著指標再次接近這些歷史水平，它表明比特幣目前可能被低估。但是，這是否標誌著校正的終結或更深的熊週期的開始尚不清楚。

As uncertainty persists, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s next move — with $81K acting as key support and $90K as the level bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment.

隨著不確定性的持續存在，所有人的目光都保持在比特幣的下一步行動上 - $ 81K充當關鍵支持，而公牛必須收迴轉移情感的盧比，$ 90K。

Technical Details: BTC Trades Below Key Moving Averages

技術詳細信息：BTC在關鍵移動平均值下進行交易

Bitcoin is trading at $84,200 after several days of heightened volatility and sustained selling pressure. The recent pullback has pushed BTC below the 200-day moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA), both of which are currently positioned around the $86,500 level.

經過數天的波動和持續的銷售壓力，比特幣的交易價格為84,200美元。最近的回調將BTC推向了200天的移動平均線（MA）和指數移動平均線（EMA），這兩者目前都位於86,500美元左右。

These indicators now act as key resistance, and bulls must reclaim and hold above them to shift momentum back in their favor. A successful move above $86,500 would be a strong technical signal, potentially opening the path to retest the $90,000 level — a key psychological and structural barrier.

這些指標現在是關鍵的抵抗力，公牛必須在上面奪回並握住他們，以轉移動力以對他們有利。超過86,500美元的成功舉動將是一個強大的技術信號，有可能為重新測試90,000美元的水平開闢道路，這是一個關鍵的心理和結構性障礙。

However, failure to reclaim these moving averages in the coming sessions would likely reinforce bearish sentiment and could lead to increased selling pressure.

但是，未能在即將到來的會議上收回這些移動平均值可能會加劇看跌的情緒，並可能導致銷售壓力增加。

If bulls lose control of the current support zone, a drop below the $81,000 mark becomes increasingly likely. This would mark a continuation of the correction that began in January and could drive Bitcoin into deeper consolidation or even a broader downtrend.

如果公牛失去對當前支持區的控制，那麼低於$ 81,000的跌幅就會越來越有可能。這將標誌著一月份開始的更正的延續，可能會使比特幣進入更深層次的整合甚至更大的下降趨勢。