比特币（BTC）价格预测：校正是否过后？公牛努力收回$ 90,000

比特币目前的交易高于关键支持，但公牛队正在努力恢复90,000美元的水平，这一门槛可能标志着有意义的恢复集会的开始。

Bitcoin is trading above critical support but bulls are struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level, a threshold that could signal the start of a meaningful recovery rally. Despite brief rebounds, BTC remains under pressure as market sentiment is still fragile.

比特币的交易高于关键支持，但公牛队正在努力收回90,000美元的水平，这一门槛可能标志着有意义的恢复集会的开始。尽管有短暂的篮板，但由于市场情绪仍然脆弱，BTC仍处于压力下。

Recently, US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs has only added to the uncertainty. His erratic behavior continues to shake financial markets, pushing risk assets like Bitcoin into deeper volatility.

最近，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布新的关税，这只会增加了不确定性。他不稳定的行为继续动摇金融市场，将像比特币这样的风险资产推向了更深的波动。

Now, Bitcoin faces a crucial test. Selling pressure appears to be mounting once again, and if bulls can’t regain control soon, the market could slip into a broader correction.

现在，比特币面临着关键的测试。销售压力似乎再次加剧了，如果公牛无法尽快恢复控制，市场可能会陷入更广泛的更正。

On-chain data adds weight to this concern. According to CryptoQuant, the Price to Distribution by Realized Supply Ratio — a key indicator that compares Bitcoin’s price to realized supply — is currently at a historically low level.

链上的数据增加了这种关注点。根据CryptoQuant的说法，通过实现的供应比（将比特币的价格与已实现的供应供应比较的关键指标）的分配价格目前处于历史较低水平。

This metric typically signals one of two outcomes: either a local bottom in a bull market or the early stages of a bear market. With BTC stuck between critical resistance and support, traders are watching closely. Whether Bitcoin rebounds or breaks down from here may define the tone for the coming weeks in the crypto space.

该指标通常标志着两个结果之一：牛市的本地底部或熊市的早期阶段。随着BTC的关键阻力和支持，交易者正在密切关注。是比特币反弹还是从这里分解，可以定义加密货币空间中未来几周的基调。

Bitcoin Correction Deepens Amid Economic Turmoil

经济动荡的比特币校正会加深

Bitcoin is trading at critical levels, showing signs that the correction phase that began in January may not be over. BTC is now 22% down from its all-time high, and momentum continues to lean bearish as macroeconomic instability and trade war fears drive widespread market uncertainty.

比特币正在关键水平的交易，表明一月份开始的校正阶段可能没有结束。 BTC现在比其历史最高高的22％下降了22％，随着宏观经济不稳定和贸易战的恐惧促进了广泛的市场不确定性，动量继续倾斜看跌。

With global financial markets rattled by tariffs and growing geopolitical tensions, risk assets like Bitcoin are facing intense selling pressure. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious, with many analysts now warning of a potential recession.

随着全球金融市场受到关税和日益严重的紧张局势的影响，像比特币这样的风险资产正面临着巨大的销售压力。投资者越来越谨慎，许多分析师现在警告潜在的衰退。

Safe havens such as gold are rallying, while equities continue to slide — a classic signal of risk-off sentiment. In this environment, Bitcoin is struggling to regain bullish momentum, unable to break above critical resistance zones.

诸如黄金之类的避风港正在集会，而股票继续滑落，这是一种经典的风险信号。在这种环境中，比特币正在努力恢复看涨的势头，无法超越关键阻力区。

Top analyst Axel Adler shared important insights supporting this cautious outlook. He pointed to a key on-chain metric that tracks Bitcoin’s price in relation to its “realized supply.” The chart uses a 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30D) of this ratio, represented by a purple line.

顶级分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler）分享了支持这种谨慎前景的重要见解。他指出了一个关键的链度指标，该指标跟踪比特币的价格与其“已实现供应”有关。该图使用该比率的30天简单移动平均线（SMA-30D），以紫色线表示。

Historically, when this line drops below a defined lower boundary, it has indicated either a local correction bottom or the start of a bear market — both times Bitcoin was significantly undervalued.

从历史上看，当这条线降至定义的下边界以下时，它表明局部校正底部或熊市的开始 - 两次比特币都被大大低估了。

The chart highlights two previous instances of this signal during major correction phases: one following the COVID-19 crash and another during the mining ban in China.

该图表突出了该信号在重大校正阶段之前的两个实例：一个在Covid-19崩溃之后，另一个在中国的采矿禁令期间。

With the indicator once again nearing these historic levels, it suggests Bitcoin may currently be undervalued. However, whether this marks the end of the correction or the beginning of a deeper bear cycle remains unclear.

随着指标再次接近这些历史水平，它表明比特币目前可能被低估。但是，这是否标志着校正的终结或更深的熊周期的开始尚不清楚。

As uncertainty persists, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s next move — with $81K acting as key support and $90K as the level bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment.

随着不确定性的持续存在，所有人的目光都保持在比特币的下一步行动上 - $ 81K充当关键支持，而公牛必须收回转移情感的卢比，$ 90K。

Technical Details: BTC Trades Below Key Moving Averages

技术详细信息：BTC在关键移动平均值下进行交易

Bitcoin is trading at $84,200 after several days of heightened volatility and sustained selling pressure. The recent pullback has pushed BTC below the 200-day moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA), both of which are currently positioned around the $86,500 level.

经过数天的波动和持续的销售压力，比特币的交易价格为84,200美元。最近的回调将BTC推向了200天的移动平均线（MA）和指数移动平均线（EMA），这两者目前都位于86,500美元左右。

These indicators now act as key resistance, and bulls must reclaim and hold above them to shift momentum back in their favor. A successful move above $86,500 would be a strong technical signal, potentially opening the path to retest the $90,000 level — a key psychological and structural barrier.

这些指标现在是关键的抵抗力，公牛必须在上面夺回并握住他们，以转移动力以对他们有利。超过86,500美元的成功举动将是一个强大的技术信号，有可能为重新测试90,000美元的水平开辟道路，这是一个关键的心理和结构性障碍。

However, failure to reclaim these moving averages in the coming sessions would likely reinforce bearish sentiment and could lead to increased selling pressure.

但是，未能在即将到来的会议上收回这些移动平均值可能会加剧看跌的情绪，并可能导致销售压力增加。

If bulls lose control of the current support zone, a drop below the $81,000 mark becomes increasingly likely. This would mark a continuation of the correction that began in January and could drive Bitcoin into deeper consolidation or even a broader downtrend.

如果公牛失去对当前支持区的控制，那么低于$ 81,000的跌幅就会越来越有可能。这将标志着一月份开始的更正的延续，可能会使比特币进入更深层次的整合甚至更大的下降趋势。