尽管奖励下降 50%，但预计比特币挖矿盈利率不会在减半后暴跌

Acheron Trading 的 Laurent Benayoun 表示，尽管比特币减半，但由于 Ordinals 和 BTCFi 推动的网络费用增加，矿业公司的盈利能力可能不会下降。发行奖励的减少可能会被更高的费用所抵消，即使比特币价格保持在 70,000 美元以上，矿工也能保持盈利。较旧的采矿设备的利润可能会降低，但更新的节能型号应该会继续产生收益。

Bitcoin Mining Profitability Unlikely to Plummet Post-Halving Despite 50% Reward Reduction

尽管奖励减少 50%，比特币挖矿盈利率在减半后不太可能暴跌

Amidst the impending Bitcoin halving, industry experts anticipate a sustained profitability for bitcoin miners despite the significant reduction in block rewards. Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading, asserts that the halving's impact on miner profitability is not as straightforward as it may seem.

在比特币减半即将到来之际，行业专家预计，尽管区块奖励大幅减少，比特币矿工仍将持续盈利。 Acheron Trading 首席执行官 Laurent Benayoun 断言，减半对矿商盈利能力的影响并不像看上去那么简单。

"In dollar terms, it's not evident that miners would fare worse after the halving; quite the contrary," Benayoun remarked. "The decrease in mining rewards will likely be offset by a surge in network fees."

贝纳永表示：“以美元计算，减半后矿商的表现并不明显会更糟；恰恰相反。” “挖矿奖励的减少可能会被网络费用的飙升所抵消。”

The Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 20, entails a 50% reduction in block rewards, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, previous halvings have resulted in smaller mining firms ceasing operations due to diminished rewards.

比特币减半定于 4 月 20 日进行，区块奖励将减少 50%，从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。从历史上看，之前的减半导致规模较小的矿业公司因奖励减少而停止运营。

However, Benayoun believes this trend may not repeat itself in the wake of the 2024 halving. Factors such as Ordinals inscriptions and the emergence of decentralized finance (DeFi) on the Bitcoin network have contributed to a rise in network fees.

然而，Benayoun 认为这种趋势可能不会在 2024 年减半后重演。序号铭文和比特币网络上去中心化金融（DeFi）的出现等因素导致了网络费用的上涨。

"We've witnessed the rise of NFTs on the Bitcoin blockchain and a surge in projects seeking to establish DeFi on the network," Benayoun explained. "These elements collectively contribute to an increase in network fees."

Benayoun 解释道：“我们见证了比特币区块链上 NFT 的兴起，以及寻求在网络上建立 DeFi 的项目激增。” “这些因素共同导致了网络费用的增加。”

Network fees represent transaction fees paid to incentivize miners to include transactions in the subsequent block. Average Bitcoin transaction fees currently stand at $4.88, a decline from $16.13 a month ago. Over the past year, these fees have witnessed an impressive 86% increase, as per data from YCharts.

网络费用是为了激励矿工将交易包含在后续区块中而支付的交易费用。目前比特币平均交易费用为 4.88 美元，较一个月前的 16.13 美元有所下降。根据 YCharts 的数据，在过去的一年里，这些费用增长了 86%，令人印象深刻。

Mining firms are likely to remain profitable if the Bitcoin price remains above $70,000, according to Joe Downie, CMO of NiceHash. "As long as the price remains above $70,000, most miners will continue to operate at a profit," Downie stated. "At current block rewards, profitability is attainable at a Bitcoin price exceeding $35,000. Below this level, they risk incurring losses."

NiceHash 首席营销官 Joe Downie 表示，如果比特币价格保持在 70,000 美元以上，矿业公司可能会保持盈利。 Downie 表示：“只要价格保持在 70,000 美元以上，大多数矿商就会继续盈利。” “按照目前的区块奖励，比特币价格超过 35,000 美元就可以实现盈利。低于这个水平，他们就有遭受损失的风险。”

Bitcoin's price has experienced a downward trend in recent weeks, currently trading at $66,851 as of 10:22 am UTC, according to CoinMarketCap data. It has remained below the $70,000 threshold since April 1.

根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，比特币的价格最近几周经历了下跌趋势，截至 UTC 上午 10:22，比特币价格目前为 66,851 美元。自 4 月 1 日以来，它一直低于 70,000 美元的门槛。

Beyond price movements, a mining firm's profitability is influenced by the efficiency and quality of its mining equipment. "Halvings render older hardware less profitable due to a decreased reward-to-work ratio," Downie noted. "However, newer and more energy-efficient models remain profitable, indicating profitability is not contingent on the size of the mining operation but on the type of equipment employed."

除了价格变动之外，矿业公司的盈利能力还受到其采矿设备的效率和质量的影响。唐尼指出：“由于奖励与工作的比率下降，减半使旧硬件的利润降低。” “然而，更新、更节能的型号仍然有利可图，这表明盈利能力并不取决于采矿作业的规模，而是取决于所使用的设备类型。”

On March 6, Bitcoin miner revenue reached its second-highest daily total in history, amounting to $75.9 million. This surge coincided with Bitcoin's price hitting a new all-time high above $69,200.

3 月 6 日，比特币矿机收入达到历史第二高的每日总收入，达到 7590 万美元。此次飙升恰逢比特币价格触及 69,200 美元以上的历史新高。

Benayoun anticipates that a smaller number of mining firms will be forced out of business in the aftermath of this halving, compared to previous cycles, due to higher network fees. "In 2017 and 2021, we saw less efficient mining operations being driven out of the market," he said. "I don't expect that to happen this time because of the rise in network fees."

贝纳永预计，由于网络费用上涨，与之前的周期相比，在本次减半之后，将有更少数量的矿业公司被迫停业。 “2017 年和 2021 年，我们看到效率较低的采矿作业被赶出市场，”他说。 “由于网络费用上涨，我预计这次不会发生这种情况。”

As the Bitcoin halving approaches, the industry eagerly awaits the impact it will have on miner profitability and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. While the reduction in block rewards remains a significant factor, the potential mitigating effects of increasing network fees and technological advancements warrant consideration.

随着比特币减半的临近，业界热切期待它将对矿商盈利能力和更广泛的加密货币生态系统产生影响。虽然区块奖励的减少仍然是一个重要因素，但网络费用增加和技术进步的潜在缓解影响值得考虑。