儘管獎勵下降 50%，但預計比特幣挖礦盈利率不會在減半後暴跌

Acheron Trading 的 Laurent Benayoun 表示，儘管比特幣減半，但由於 Ordinals 和 BTCFi 推動的網路費用增加，礦業公司的獲利能力可能不會下降。發行獎勵的減少可能會被更高的費用所抵消，即使比特幣價格保持在 70,000 美元以上，礦工也能保持盈利。較舊的採礦設備的利潤可能會降低，但更新的節能型號應該會繼續產生收益。

Bitcoin Mining Profitability Unlikely to Plummet Post-Halving Despite 50% Reward Reduction

儘管獎勵減少 50%，比特幣挖礦盈利率在減半後不太可能暴跌

Amidst the impending Bitcoin halving, industry experts anticipate a sustained profitability for bitcoin miners despite the significant reduction in block rewards. Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading, asserts that the halving's impact on miner profitability is not as straightforward as it may seem.

在比特幣減半即將到來之際，產業專家預計，儘管區塊獎勵大幅減少，比特幣礦工仍將持續獲利。 Acheron Trading 執行長 Laurent Benayoun 斷言，減半對礦商獲利能力的影響並不像看起來那麼簡單。

"In dollar terms, it's not evident that miners would fare worse after the halving; quite the contrary," Benayoun remarked. "The decrease in mining rewards will likely be offset by a surge in network fees."

貝納永表示：“以美元計算，減半後礦商的表現並不明顯會更糟；恰恰相反。” “挖礦獎勵的減少可能會被網路費用的飆升所抵消。”

The Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 20, entails a 50% reduction in block rewards, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, previous halvings have resulted in smaller mining firms ceasing operations due to diminished rewards.

比特幣減半定於 4 月 20 日進行，區塊獎勵將減少 50%，從 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。從歷史上看，先前的減半導致規模較小的礦業公司因獎勵減少而停止營運。

However, Benayoun believes this trend may not repeat itself in the wake of the 2024 halving. Factors such as Ordinals inscriptions and the emergence of decentralized finance (DeFi) on the Bitcoin network have contributed to a rise in network fees.

然而，Benayoun 認為這種趨勢可能不會在 2024 年減半後重演。序號銘文和比特幣網路上去中心化金融（DeFi）的出現等因素導致了網路費用的上漲。

"We've witnessed the rise of NFTs on the Bitcoin blockchain and a surge in projects seeking to establish DeFi on the network," Benayoun explained. "These elements collectively contribute to an increase in network fees."

Benayoun 解釋道：“我們見證了比特幣區塊鏈上 NFT 的興起，以及尋求在網路上建立 DeFi 的項目激增。” “這些因素共同導致了網路費用的增加。”

Network fees represent transaction fees paid to incentivize miners to include transactions in the subsequent block. Average Bitcoin transaction fees currently stand at $4.88, a decline from $16.13 a month ago. Over the past year, these fees have witnessed an impressive 86% increase, as per data from YCharts.

網路費用是為了激勵礦工將交易包含在後續區塊中而支付的交易費用。目前比特幣平均交易費用為 4.88 美元，較一個月前的 16.13 美元下降。根據 YCharts 的數據，在過去的一年裡，這些費用增加了 86%，令人印象深刻。

Mining firms are likely to remain profitable if the Bitcoin price remains above $70,000, according to Joe Downie, CMO of NiceHash. "As long as the price remains above $70,000, most miners will continue to operate at a profit," Downie stated. "At current block rewards, profitability is attainable at a Bitcoin price exceeding $35,000. Below this level, they risk incurring losses."

NiceHash 行銷長 Joe Downie 表示，如果比特幣價格維持在 7 萬美元以上，礦業公司可能會保持獲利。 Downie 表示：“只要價格保持在 70,000 美元以上，大多數礦商就會繼續盈利。” “按照目前的區塊獎勵，比特幣價格超過 35,000 美元就可以實現盈利。低於這個水平，他們就有遭受損失的風險。”

Bitcoin's price has experienced a downward trend in recent weeks, currently trading at $66,851 as of 10:22 am UTC, according to CoinMarketCap data. It has remained below the $70,000 threshold since April 1.

根據 CoinMarketCap 的數據，比特幣的價格最近幾週經歷了下跌趨勢，截至 UTC 上午 10:22，比特幣價格目前為 66,851 美元。自 4 月 1 日以來，它一直低於 70,000 美元的門檻。

Beyond price movements, a mining firm's profitability is influenced by the efficiency and quality of its mining equipment. "Halvings render older hardware less profitable due to a decreased reward-to-work ratio," Downie noted. "However, newer and more energy-efficient models remain profitable, indicating profitability is not contingent on the size of the mining operation but on the type of equipment employed."

除了價格變動之外，礦業公司的獲利能力也受到其採礦設備的效率和品質的影響。唐尼指出：“由於獎勵與工作的比率下降，減半使舊硬體的利潤降低。” “然而，更新、更節能的型號仍然有利可圖，這表明盈利能力並不取決於採礦作業的規模，而是取決於所使用的設備類型。”

On March 6, Bitcoin miner revenue reached its second-highest daily total in history, amounting to $75.9 million. This surge coincided with Bitcoin's price hitting a new all-time high above $69,200.

3 月 6 日，比特幣礦機收入達到史上第二高的每日總收入，達到 7,590 萬美元。此次飆升恰逢比特幣價格觸及 69,200 美元以上的歷史新高。

Benayoun anticipates that a smaller number of mining firms will be forced out of business in the aftermath of this halving, compared to previous cycles, due to higher network fees. "In 2017 and 2021, we saw less efficient mining operations being driven out of the market," he said. "I don't expect that to happen this time because of the rise in network fees."

貝納永預計，由於網路費用上漲，與先前的周期相比，在本次減半之後，將有更少數量的礦業公司被迫關閉。 「2017 年和 2021 年，我們看到效率較低的採礦作業被趕出市場，」他說。 “由於網路費用上漲，我預計這次不會發生這種情況。”

As the Bitcoin halving approaches, the industry eagerly awaits the impact it will have on miner profitability and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. While the reduction in block rewards remains a significant factor, the potential mitigating effects of increasing network fees and technological advancements warrant consideration.

隨著比特幣減半的臨近，業界熱切期待它將對礦商獲利能力和更廣泛的加密貨幣生態系統產生影響。雖然區塊獎勵的減少仍然是一個重要因素，但網路費用增加和技術進步的潛在緩解影響值得考慮。