比特币市场信号分布，横盘走势中估值过高

比特币的代币销毁天数（CDD）已达到五年来的最高点，表明长期持有者的分配。从历史上看，此类峰值导致了重大调整。 CDD 是代币不活跃天数乘以交易量的衡量标准。

Bitcoin's On-Chain Metrics Signal Distribution and Overvaluation Amidst Sideways Trading

比特币的链上指标信号分布和横盘交易中的高估

Recent on-chain data analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a period of potential correction, as evidenced by elevated distribution activity and overvaluation indicators.

最近的链上数据分析表明，比特币（BTC）已进入潜在修正期，分销活动增加和高估指标证明了这一点。

Coin Days Destroyed Hits Five-Year Peak

代币销毁天数创五年新高

One key metric, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), has reached its highest level in the past five years. CDD measures the number of days Bitcoins have been dormant multiplied by the transaction volume. Historically, when CDD peaks, it often precedes a significant market correction.

一项关键指标“币毁天数”（CDD）已达到过去五年来的最高水平。 CDD 衡量的是比特币休眠的天数乘以交易量。从历史上看，当 CDD 达到顶峰时，通常会发生重大市场调整。

According to Maartunn, an analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, this pattern indicates a distribution of older coins during the bullish phase, which could slow down the rally. He estimates that Bitcoin may take up to five months to reach its peak after such a distribution event.

链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的分析师 Maartunn 表示，这种模式表明旧代币在看涨阶段的分布，这可能会减缓涨势。他估计，在这样的分配事件之后，比特币可能需要长达五个月的时间才能达到峰值。

Network Activity and Sentiment Weaken

网络活动和情绪减弱

On-chain data also reveals a decline in network activity, with active addresses falling from over 1 million to 706,000 in recent days. This decrease suggests a decline in transaction demand, which could negatively impact the price.

链上数据还显示网络活动有所下降，最近几天活跃地址从 100 万以上下降至 706,000 个。这种下降表明交易需求下降，这可能会对价格产生负面影响。

Furthermore, Bitcoin's Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which gauges overvaluation and undervaluation, has surged to 405. A high NVT ratio typically indicates that an asset is overvalued relative to its transaction volume, creating bearish sentiment.

此外，衡量高估和低估的比特币网络价值与交易（NVT）比率已飙升至 405。较高的 NVT 比率通常表明资产相对于其交易量被高估，从而产生看跌情绪。

Short-Term Price Outlook

短期价格展望

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez predicts a potential drop in Bitcoin's price to $63,150 if bulls fail to hold the $68,300 support level. However, he also suggests that the coin could rally higher if it retests $70,320.

加密货币分析师 Ali Martinez 预测，如果多头未能守住 68,300 美元的支撑位，比特币价格可能会跌至 63,150 美元。不过，他还表示，如果重新测试 70,320 美元，该代币可能会上涨。

The impending halving event on April 19th, a periodic reduction in Bitcoin's block reward, has historically been associated with heightened volatility. While Bitcoin may experience an extended rally before the halving, the current on-chain conditions indicate that a downturn could follow.

4 月 19 日即将到来的减半事件（比特币区块奖励的周期性减少）历来与波动性加剧有关。虽然比特币在减半之前可能会经历长时间的反弹，但目前的链上状况表明，接下来可能会出现低迷。

Conclusion

结论

Based on the aforementioned on-chain metrics, Bitcoin appears to be facing headwinds. Distribution by long-term holders, weak network activity, overvaluation, and historical halving patterns suggest a potential market correction.

根据上述链上指标，比特币似乎面临着阻力。长期持有者的分配、网络活动疲弱、估值过高以及历史减半模式表明潜在的市场调整。

However, it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will surpass the $70,000 mark during this cycle. Investors should closely monitor on-chain data and broader market conditions to assess the potential direction of the cryptocurrency.

然而，比特币在此周期是否会突破 70,000 美元大关仍不确定。投资者应密切关注链上数据和更广泛的市场状况，以评估加密货币的潜在方向。