比特幣市場訊號分佈，橫盤走勢中估值過高

比特幣的代幣銷毀天數（CDD）已達到五年來的最高點，顯示長期持有者的分配。從歷史上看，此類高峰導致了重大調整。 CDD 是代幣不活躍天數乘以交易量的衡量標準。

Bitcoin's On-Chain Metrics Signal Distribution and Overvaluation Amidst Sideways Trading

比特幣的鏈上指標訊號分佈和橫盤交易中的高估

Recent on-chain data analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a period of potential correction, as evidenced by elevated distribution activity and overvaluation indicators.

最近的鏈上數據分析表明，比特幣（BTC）已進入潛在修正期，分銷活動增加和高估指標證明了這一點。

Coin Days Destroyed Hits Five-Year Peak

代幣銷毀天數創五年新高

One key metric, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), has reached its highest level in the past five years. CDD measures the number of days Bitcoins have been dormant multiplied by the transaction volume. Historically, when CDD peaks, it often precedes a significant market correction.

一項關鍵指標「幣毀天數」（CDD）已達到過去五年來的最高水準。 CDD 衡量的是比特幣休眠的天數乘以交易量。從歷史上看，當 CDD 達到頂峰時，通常會發生重大市場調整。

According to Maartunn, an analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, this pattern indicates a distribution of older coins during the bullish phase, which could slow down the rally. He estimates that Bitcoin may take up to five months to reach its peak after such a distribution event.

鏈上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的分析師 Maartunn 表示，這種模式顯示舊代幣在看漲階段的分佈，這可能會減緩漲勢。他估計，在這樣的分配事件之後，比特幣可能需要長達五個月的時間才能達到高峰。

Network Activity and Sentiment Weaken

網路活動和情緒減弱

On-chain data also reveals a decline in network activity, with active addresses falling from over 1 million to 706,000 in recent days. This decrease suggests a decline in transaction demand, which could negatively impact the price.

鏈上數據也顯示網路活動有所下降，最近幾天活躍地址從 100 萬以上下降至 706,000 個。這種下降表明交易需求下降，這可能會對價格產生負面影響。

Furthermore, Bitcoin's Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which gauges overvaluation and undervaluation, has surged to 405. A high NVT ratio typically indicates that an asset is overvalued relative to its transaction volume, creating bearish sentiment.

此外，衡量高估和低估的比特幣網路價值與交易（NVT）比率已飆升至 405。較高的 NVT 比率通常表明資產相對於其交易量被高估，從而產生看跌情緒。

Short-Term Price Outlook

短期價格展望

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez predicts a potential drop in Bitcoin's price to $63,150 if bulls fail to hold the $68,300 support level. However, he also suggests that the coin could rally higher if it retests $70,320.

加密貨幣分析師 Ali Martinez 預測，如果多頭未能守住 68,300 美元的支撐位，比特幣價格可能會跌至 63,150 美元。不過，他也表示，如果重新測試 70,320 美元，該代幣可能會上漲。

The impending halving event on April 19th, a periodic reduction in Bitcoin's block reward, has historically been associated with heightened volatility. While Bitcoin may experience an extended rally before the halving, the current on-chain conditions indicate that a downturn could follow.

4 月 19 日即將到來的減半事件（比特幣區塊獎勵的周期性減少）歷來與波動性加劇有關。雖然比特幣在減半之前可能會經歷長時間的反彈，但目前的鏈上狀況表明，接下來可能會出現低迷。

Conclusion

結論

Based on the aforementioned on-chain metrics, Bitcoin appears to be facing headwinds. Distribution by long-term holders, weak network activity, overvaluation, and historical halving patterns suggest a potential market correction.

根據上述鏈上指標，比特幣似乎面臨阻力。長期持有者的分配、網路活動疲軟、估值過高以及歷史減半模式表明潛在的市場調整。

However, it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will surpass the $70,000 mark during this cycle. Investors should closely monitor on-chain data and broader market conditions to assess the potential direction of the cryptocurrency.

然而，比特幣在此週期是否會突破 70,000 美元大關仍不確定。投資者應密切關注鏈上數據和更廣泛的市場狀況，以評估加密貨幣的潛在方向。