比特币市场动态最近目睹了负面趋势

这种淡出的投资者的情绪与最近的市场不确定性相吻合，在短期内引起了对BTC前景的担忧。

Recent trends in Bitcoin market dynamics have encountered a setback as short-term holders, or investors, reduced their involvement with BTC, according to advanced investment and on-chain data platform Alphractal.

根据高级投资和链上数据平台Alphractal的数据，比特币市场动态的最新趋势遇到了挫折。

This fading investors’ sentiment, also known as "terzo parte," coincides with recent market uncertainty, triggering concerns about BTC’s prospects in the short term.

这种褪色的投资者的情绪，也称为“ Terzo Parte”，与最近的市场不确定性相吻合，引发了短期内对BTC前景的担忧。

Short-Term Holders Step Back From Bitcoin Accumulation

短期持有人从比特币积累退后一步

A worrying trend has been spotted among Bitcoin short-term holders.

比特币短期持有人发现了令人担忧的趋势。

Specifically, short-term BTC holders have significantly reduced their accumulation, signaling a shift in confidence amid ongoing market volatility.

具体而言，短期BTC持有人大大减少了他们的积累，这表明在持续的市场波动中，信心发生了变化。

A drop in short-term holders’ buying activity hints at growing caution among these investors due to recent bearish trends.

由于最近的看跌趋势，这些投资者的短期持有人购买活动的下降暗示，这些投资者的谨慎态度越来越谨慎。

With accumulation dropping, there is a risk of selling pressure, which is likely to drive price movements in the short term.

随着累积下降，出售压力的风险很可能在短期内推动价格变动。

Currently, the 30-day variation of the Accumulation vs. Distribution of Short-Term Holders metric appears to be declining.

当前，累积与短期持有人指标的分布的30天变化似乎正在下降。

Meanwhile, it has proven to be an excellent method of identifying periods of excitement and sorrow when examining market history.

同时，事实证明，在检查市场历史时，它是确定兴奋和悲伤时期的一种极好方法。

Furthermore, the 365-day variation seems to have created a local top following the metric attaining its highest value on December 31, 2024.

此外，在2024年12月31日达到其最高价值之后，365天的变化似乎创造了本地顶部。

Due to this, the platform has underlined crucial factors to closely observe ahead of the waning interest in BTC.

因此，该平台强调了至关重要的因素，以在BTC的兴趣下降之前密切观察。

Should the 30-day variation keep heading downwards or go into negative territory, Alphractal claims that short-term holders are more likely to consider selling their BTC holdings.

如果30天的变化不断向下走向或进入负面领域，则字母声称短期持有人更有可能考虑出售其BTC持股。

Since these holders usually play a role in impacting short-term price trajectory, a sell-off from his cohort sparks more volatility.

由于这些持有人通常在影响短期价格轨迹方面发挥作用，因此他的队列的抛售产生了更多的波动性。

In the annual variation, the market will probably continue to decline if there are signs of stagnation.

在年度变化中，如果存在停滞迹象，市场可能会继续下降。

However, a move into the red zone might suggest a high probability that the primary bull phase has already occurred.

但是，进入红色区域可能表明已经发生了原发性牛相的可能性很高。

While the variations say a lot about the market, Alphractal noted that it is too early to talk about these aspects as price dynamics surprise many in these markets.

尽管这些变化对市场有很多说明，但字母刻画指出，现在谈论这些方面为时过早，因为价格动态在这些市场中令人惊讶。

As a result, the platform urges investors and traders to monitor these metrics closely every day for great trading insight.

结果，该平台敦促投资者和贸易商每天密切监视这些指标，以获得出色的交易见解。

A Possible Extended Sell-Offs From Recent Buyers

最近的买家可能会延长抛售

A deeper dive into short-term holders’ activity from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin is currently below the STH cost basis at the $92,500 level.

从GlassNode中更深入地研究了短期持有人的活动，这表明比特币目前以92,500美元的水平低于STH的成本基础。

Historically, this level has proven to be a key area between local-scale bull and bear phases.

从历史上看，这一水平已被证明是地方规模的公牛和熊阶段之间的关键领域。

Glassnode also highlighted that the short-term holders have an average paper loss of 4% as indicated by the STH Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) at 0.96.

GlassNode还强调，短期持有人的平均纸张损失为4％，如STH市场价值与实现价值比（MVRV）0.96所示。

However, if BTC fails to recover the STH cost basis at $92,500, it may result in continued selling pressure from recent buyers.

但是，如果BTC未能以92,500美元的价格收回STH成本基础，则可能会导致最近买家的销售压力。

During the May ’21, Nov ’21, Apr ’24, and Feb ’24 post-ATH corrections, Bitcoin’s price moved to -1σ below the STH cost basis, which is located between $71,000 and $72,000.

在21年5月21日，24年4月24日和24年24年校正后，比特币的价格移至STH成本基础的-1σ，该基础位于71,000美元至72,000美元之间。

A potential maintenance of past trends would help frame the likelihood of downside risk.

过去趋势的潜在维护将有助于构成下行风险的可能性。