比特幣市場動態最近目睹了負面趨勢

這種淡出的投資者的情緒與最近的市場不確定性相吻合，在短期內引起了對BTC前景的擔憂。

Recent trends in Bitcoin market dynamics have encountered a setback as short-term holders, or investors, reduced their involvement with BTC, according to advanced investment and on-chain data platform Alphractal.

根據高級投資和鏈上數據平台Alphractal的數據，比特幣市場動態的最新趨勢遇到了挫折。

This fading investors’ sentiment, also known as "terzo parte," coincides with recent market uncertainty, triggering concerns about BTC’s prospects in the short term.

這種褪色的投資者的情緒，也稱為“ Terzo Parte”，與最近的市場不確定性相吻合，引發了短期內對BTC前景的擔憂。

Short-Term Holders Step Back From Bitcoin Accumulation

短期持有人從比特幣積累退後一步

A worrying trend has been spotted among Bitcoin short-term holders.

比特幣短期持有人發現了令人擔憂的趨勢。

Specifically, short-term BTC holders have significantly reduced their accumulation, signaling a shift in confidence amid ongoing market volatility.

具體而言，短期BTC持有人大大減少了他們的積累，這表明在持續的市場波動中，信心發生了變化。

A drop in short-term holders’ buying activity hints at growing caution among these investors due to recent bearish trends.

由於最近的看跌趨勢，這些投資者的短期持有人購買活動的下降暗示，這些投資者的謹慎態度越來越謹慎。

With accumulation dropping, there is a risk of selling pressure, which is likely to drive price movements in the short term.

隨著累積下降，出售壓力的風險很可能在短期內推動價格變動。

Currently, the 30-day variation of the Accumulation vs. Distribution of Short-Term Holders metric appears to be declining.

當前，累積與短期持有人指標的分佈的30天變化似乎正在下降。

Meanwhile, it has proven to be an excellent method of identifying periods of excitement and sorrow when examining market history.

同時，事實證明，在檢查市場歷史時，它是確定興奮和悲傷時期的一種極好方法。

Furthermore, the 365-day variation seems to have created a local top following the metric attaining its highest value on December 31, 2024.

此外，在2024年12月31日達到其最高價值之後，365天的變化似乎創造了本地頂部。

Due to this, the platform has underlined crucial factors to closely observe ahead of the waning interest in BTC.

因此，該平台強調了至關重要的因素，以在BTC的興趣下降之前密切觀察。

Should the 30-day variation keep heading downwards or go into negative territory, Alphractal claims that short-term holders are more likely to consider selling their BTC holdings.

如果30天的變化不斷向下走向或進入負面領域，則字母聲稱短期持有人更有可能考慮出售其BTC持股。

Since these holders usually play a role in impacting short-term price trajectory, a sell-off from his cohort sparks more volatility.

由於這些持有人通常在影響短期價格軌跡方面發揮作用，因此他的隊列的拋售產生了更多的波動性。

In the annual variation, the market will probably continue to decline if there are signs of stagnation.

在年度變化中，如果存在停滯跡象，市場可能會繼續下降。

However, a move into the red zone might suggest a high probability that the primary bull phase has already occurred.

但是，進入紅色區域可能表明已經發生了原發性牛相的可能性很高。

While the variations say a lot about the market, Alphractal noted that it is too early to talk about these aspects as price dynamics surprise many in these markets.

儘管這些變化對市場有很多說明，但字母刻畫指出，現在談論這些方面為時過早，因為價格動態在這些市場中令人驚訝。

As a result, the platform urges investors and traders to monitor these metrics closely every day for great trading insight.

結果，該平台敦促投資者和貿易商每天密切監視這些指標，以獲得出色的交易見解。

A Possible Extended Sell-Offs From Recent Buyers

最近的買家可能會延長拋售

A deeper dive into short-term holders’ activity from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin is currently below the STH cost basis at the $92,500 level.

從GlassNode中更深入地研究了短期持有人的活動，這表明比特幣目前以92,500美元的水平低於STH的成本基礎。

Historically, this level has proven to be a key area between local-scale bull and bear phases.

從歷史上看，這一水平已被證明是地方規模的公牛和熊階段之間的關鍵領域。

Glassnode also highlighted that the short-term holders have an average paper loss of 4% as indicated by the STH Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) at 0.96.

GlassNode還強調，短期持有人的平均紙張損失為4％，如STH市場價值與實現價值比（MVRV）0.96所示。

However, if BTC fails to recover the STH cost basis at $92,500, it may result in continued selling pressure from recent buyers.

但是，如果BTC未能以92,500美元的價格收回STH成本基礎，則可能會導致最近買家的銷售壓力。

During the May ’21, Nov ’21, Apr ’24, and Feb ’24 post-ATH corrections, Bitcoin’s price moved to -1σ below the STH cost basis, which is located between $71,000 and $72,000.

在21年5月21日，24年4月24日和24年24年校正後，比特幣的價格移至STH成本基礎的-1σ，該基礎位於71,000美元至72,000美元之間。

A potential maintenance of past trends would help frame the likelihood of downside risk.

過去趨勢的潛在維護將有助於構成下行風險的可能性。