特朗普获胜后比特币行业高管看到新时代的曙光

当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在其竞选活动中拥抱加密货币技术后获胜，加上被认为对加密货币利益更友好的共和党在参议院和众议院取得胜利，引发了加密世界新一波的乐观情绪。

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, there’s a palpable sense of optimism coursing through the cryptocurrency world over the prospect of a new era.

随着当选总统唐纳德·特朗普准备就职，加密货币世界中弥漫着对新时代前景的明显乐观情绪。

It’s a stark contrast to the industry’s mood 24 months ago, when bitcoin was reeling from a precipitous crash in prices, multibillion-dollar scandals and deep questions about the use cases for blockchain technology.

这与 24 个月前业界的情绪形成鲜明对比，当时比特币正因价格暴跌、数十亿美元的丑闻以及对区块链技术用例的深刻质疑而陷入困境。

But Trump’s win, coming on the heels of his campaign’s embrace of cryptocurrency technology, along with Senate and House victories by a Republican Party seen as friendlier to crypto interests, has sparked a fresh wave of enthusiasm in the crypto world.

但在特朗普的竞选活动拥抱加密货币技术之后，以及被视为对加密货币利益更友好的共和党在参议院和众议院取得胜利之后，特朗普的胜利引发了加密世界的新一波热情。

“It’s exuberant,” Lee Bratcher, head of the nonprofit Texas Blockchain Council, told NBC News. He said his summit, taking place later this month in Dallas, has now sold out — a development he said he was not expecting prior to the election.

“这很活跃，”非营利组织德克萨斯州区块链委员会负责人 Lee Bratcher 告诉 NBC 新闻。他表示，本月晚些时候在达拉斯举行的峰会门票现已售完——他表示，这是他在大选前没有预料到的情况。

“The industry recognizes significant changes are going to be coming,” he said.

“业界认识到重大变化即将到来，”他说。

The energy has been apparent to anyone watching the price of bitcoin. The most popular cryptocurrency shot well above previous all-time highs after Trump’s win became clear, briefly topping $93,000 — a roughly 33% increase in the span of just one week.

对于任何关注比特币价格的人来说，这种能量都是显而易见的。在特朗普获胜后，这种最受欢迎​​的加密货币的价格远高于之前的历史高点，一度突破 93,000 美元——在短短一周内上涨了约 33%。

As of Friday afternoon, it was trading right around $90,000, still well above its previous peak levels.

截至周五下午，其交易价格约为 90,000 美元，仍远高于之前的峰值水平。

The bull run is predicated on a range of proposed reforms that advocates say will unleash even more demand for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies — while ultimately, in Trump’s words, making the U.S. “the crypto capital of the planet.”

牛市的基础是一系列拟议的改革，支持者称这些改革将释放对比特币和其他加密货币的更多需求，而用特朗普的话说，最终将使美国成为“地球的加密之都”。

For some skeptics, though, a rapid embrace of all things crypto without regulatory safeguards is fueling concerns of even more rampant scams. In 2023, the FBI received approximately 70,000 complaints of crypto scams costing people $5.6 billion.

然而，对于一些怀疑论者来说，在没有监管保障的情况下，加密货币的迅速普及正在加剧人们对更加猖獗的诈骗行为的担忧。 2023 年，FBI 收到约 70,000 起加密货币诈骗投诉，造成损失 56 亿美元。

There is hope in the industry that bringing more of it into a defined legal framework and onto U.S. shores will ultimately reduce the number of victims.

该行业希望将更多的此类物质纳入明确的法律框架并进入美国海岸，最终将减少受害者数量。

Brandon Mintz, who runs Bitcoin Depot, a bitcoin ATM company, said he expects federal officials to move from a policy of regulation via enforcement and penalization to a more laissez-faire approach.

比特币 ATM 公司 Bitcoin Depot 的经营者布兰登·明茨 (Brandon Mintz) 表示，他预计联邦官员将从通过执法和惩罚的监管政策转向更加自由放任的做法。

“We believe the regulatory environment will change to spur more innovation, not just for crypto firms but all holders of bitcoin,” Mintz said.

明茨表示：“我们相信监管环境将会发生变化，以刺激更多创新，不仅是对加密货币公司，而且是对所有比特币持有者。”

The hope is that, as Trump-appointed regulators provide clearer guidelines for large banks and other traditional financial entities, mainstream interest in bitcoin investment will flourish.

人们希望，随着特朗普任命的监管机构为大型银行和其他传统金融实体提供更清晰的指导方针，主流对比特币投资的兴趣将会蓬勃发展。

Bratcher said the current lack of clarity about bitcoin-investment rules, based on overlapping rulings from agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has created “career risk” for money managers who may have desired to own bitcoin for their clients but who were afraid of personal or professional sanction.

布拉彻表示，目前比特币投资规则缺乏明确性，基于美国证券交易委员会和商品期货交易委员会等机构的重叠裁决，这给那些可能希望拥有比特币作为自己投资目的的基金经理带来了“职业风险”。但害怕个人或专业制裁的客户。

Some of that risk dissipated with the approval earlier this year of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, which allow investors to benefit from bitcoin’s price appreciation.

随着今年早些时候比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准，部分风险消失了，投资者可以从比特币价格升值中受益。

But with the new administration, Bratcher said, investors can expect the regulations “they’ve been asking for” — and with it, the ability for everyone from the uberrich to 401(k) holders to benefit from what he said would be bitcoin’s inevitable long-term price gains.

但布拉彻表示，随着新政府的出现，投资者可以期待“他们一直要求的”监管——有了它，从超级富豪到 401(k) 持有者的每个人都有能力从他所说的比特币不可避免的情况中受益。长期价格上涨。

To get a sense of the potential investment volume that could be incoming from such changes, one can look at the current value of holdings of existing bitcoin ETFs, which are now worth nearly $100 billion, according to one estimate.

为了了解此类变化可能带来的潜在投资量，人们可以查看现有比特币 ETF 持有量的当前价值，根据一项估计，这些 ETF 目前价值近 1000 亿美元。

For Ric Edelman, head of Edelman Financial Services, a group that provides training and instruction about investing in bitcoin to traditional finance professionals, even simply moving an investor’s funds allocation from no bitcoin to 1% would represent a sea change.

Edelman Financial Services（一家向传统金融专业人士提供比特币投资培训和指导的组织）负责人 Ric Edelman 认为，即使只是将投资者的资金分配从无比特币调整到 1%，也将代表着巨大的变化。

He said groups like pension boards will ultimately have a fiduciary duty to invest in bitcoin if there is a risk of missing out on massive run-ups in price like the one that has occurred this month.

他表示，如果存在错过本月发生的价格大幅上涨的风险，养老金委员会等团体最终将承担投资比特币的信托责任。

“The mantra is: ‘Get off zero,” Edelman said. “You can argue whether it should be 1% or 3% or 10%. But you’re having an increasingly difficult time justifying ‘zero.’”

“口头禅是：‘从零开始，’埃德尔曼说。 “你可以争论应该是 1%、3% 还是 10%。但你越来越难以证明‘零’的合理性。”

Looser, if more defined, cryptocurrency regulations are also likely to mean a proliferation of alternative cryptocurrencies, said JP Richardson, CEO of Exodus, a cryptocurrency wallet firm. It’s something that has already been occurring in anticipation of a Trump victory — and Trump himself has sought to cash in.

加密货币钱包公司 Exodus 的首席执行官 JP Richardson 表示，更宽松、更明确的加密货币监管也可能意味着替代加密货币的激增。这是在特朗普获胜的预期中已经发生的事情——而特朗普本人也试图从中获利。

In the weeks preceding the election, Trump announced the launch of an online token called World Liberty Financial. Though it has provided official regulatory filings, they state that “World Liberty” is not a security and that, for now, the tokens are not actually available to U.S. persons.

在大选前几周，特朗普宣布推出名为 World Liberty Financial 的在线代币。尽管它提供了官方监管文件，但他们表示“World Liberty”不是一种证券，而且目前这些代币实际上并不可供美国人使用。

The risks inherent to cryptocurrencies have not gone away as prices have surged. If anything, the risks will likely be exacerbated, at least in the short term

加密货币固有的风险并没有随着价格的飙升而消失。如果有的话，至少在短期内，风险可能会加剧