川普獲勝後比特幣產業高層看到新時代的曙光

當選總統唐納德·川普在其競選活動中擁抱加密貨幣技術後獲勝，加上被認為對加密貨幣利益更友好的共和黨在參議院和眾議院取得勝利，引發了加密世界新一波的樂觀情緒。

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, there’s a palpable sense of optimism coursing through the cryptocurrency world over the prospect of a new era.

隨著當選總統唐納德·川普準備就職，加密貨幣世界中瀰漫著對新時代前景的明顯樂觀情緒。

It’s a stark contrast to the industry’s mood 24 months ago, when bitcoin was reeling from a precipitous crash in prices, multibillion-dollar scandals and deep questions about the use cases for blockchain technology.

這與 24 個月前業界的情緒形成鮮明對比，當時比特幣正因價格暴跌、數十億美元的醜聞以及對區塊鏈技術用例的深刻質疑而陷入困境。

But Trump’s win, coming on the heels of his campaign’s embrace of cryptocurrency technology, along with Senate and House victories by a Republican Party seen as friendlier to crypto interests, has sparked a fresh wave of enthusiasm in the crypto world.

但在川普的競選活動擁抱加密貨幣技術之後，以及被視為對加密貨幣利益更友善的共和黨在參議院和眾議院取得勝利之後，川普的勝利引發了加密世界的新一波熱情。

“It’s exuberant,” Lee Bratcher, head of the nonprofit Texas Blockchain Council, told NBC News. He said his summit, taking place later this month in Dallas, has now sold out — a development he said he was not expecting prior to the election.

「這很活躍，」非營利組織德州區塊鏈委員會負責人 Lee Bratcher 告訴 NBC 新聞。他表示，本月稍晚在達拉斯舉行的峰會門票現已售罄——他表示，這是他在大選前沒有預料到的情況。

“The industry recognizes significant changes are going to be coming,” he said.

「業界認識到重大變化即將到來，」他說。

The energy has been apparent to anyone watching the price of bitcoin. The most popular cryptocurrency shot well above previous all-time highs after Trump’s win became clear, briefly topping $93,000 — a roughly 33% increase in the span of just one week.

對於任何關注比特幣價格的人來說，這種能量都是顯而易見的。在川普獲勝後，這種最受歡迎的加密貨幣的價格遠高於之前的歷史高點，一度突破 93,000 美元——在短短一周內上漲了約 33%。

As of Friday afternoon, it was trading right around $90,000, still well above its previous peak levels.

截至週五下午，其交易價格約為 90,000 美元，仍遠高於先前的峰值水平。

The bull run is predicated on a range of proposed reforms that advocates say will unleash even more demand for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies — while ultimately, in Trump’s words, making the U.S. “the crypto capital of the planet.”

牛市的基礎是一系列擬議的改革，支持者稱這些改革將釋放對比特幣和其他加密貨幣的更多需求，而用川普的話來說，最終將使美國成為「地球的加密之都」。

For some skeptics, though, a rapid embrace of all things crypto without regulatory safeguards is fueling concerns of even more rampant scams. In 2023, the FBI received approximately 70,000 complaints of crypto scams costing people $5.6 billion.

然而，對於一些懷疑論者來說，在沒有監管保障的情況下，加密貨幣的快速普及正在加劇人們對更猖獗的詐騙行為的擔憂。 2023 年，FBI 收到約 7 萬起加密貨幣詐騙投訴，造成損失 56 億美元。

There is hope in the industry that bringing more of it into a defined legal framework and onto U.S. shores will ultimately reduce the number of victims.

該行業希望將更多的此類物質納入明確的法律框架並進入美國海岸，最終將減少受害者數量。

Brandon Mintz, who runs Bitcoin Depot, a bitcoin ATM company, said he expects federal officials to move from a policy of regulation via enforcement and penalization to a more laissez-faire approach.

比特幣 ATM 公司 Bitcoin Depot 的經營者 Brandon Mintz 表示，他預計聯邦官員將從通過執法和懲罰的監管政策轉向更加自由放任的做法。

“We believe the regulatory environment will change to spur more innovation, not just for crypto firms but all holders of bitcoin,” Mintz said.

明茨表示：“我們相信監管環境將會發生變化，以刺激更多創新，不僅是對加密貨幣公司，而且是對所有比特幣持有者。”

The hope is that, as Trump-appointed regulators provide clearer guidelines for large banks and other traditional financial entities, mainstream interest in bitcoin investment will flourish.

人們希望，隨著川普任命的監管機構為大型銀行和其他傳統金融實體提供更清晰的指導方針，主流對比特幣投資的興趣將會蓬勃發展。

Bratcher said the current lack of clarity about bitcoin-investment rules, based on overlapping rulings from agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has created “career risk” for money managers who may have desired to own bitcoin for their clients but who were afraid of personal or professional sanction.

布拉徹表示，目前比特幣投資規則缺乏明確性，基於美國證券交易委員會和商品期貨交易委員會等機構的重疊裁決，這給那些可能希望擁有比特幣作為自己投資目的的基金經理帶來了「職業風險」。但害怕個人或專業制裁的客戶。

Some of that risk dissipated with the approval earlier this year of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, which allow investors to benefit from bitcoin’s price appreciation.

隨著今年稍早比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准，部分風險消失了，投資者可以從比特幣價格升值中受益。

But with the new administration, Bratcher said, investors can expect the regulations “they’ve been asking for” — and with it, the ability for everyone from the uberrich to 401(k) holders to benefit from what he said would be bitcoin’s inevitable long-term price gains.

但布拉徹表示，隨著新政府的出現，投資者可以期待「他們一直要求的」監管——有了它，從超級富豪到401(k) 持有者的每個人都有能力從他所說的比特幣不可避免的情況中受益。

To get a sense of the potential investment volume that could be incoming from such changes, one can look at the current value of holdings of existing bitcoin ETFs, which are now worth nearly $100 billion, according to one estimate.

為了了解此類變化可能帶來的潛在投資量，人們可以查看現有比特幣 ETF 持有量的當前價值，根據一項估計，這些 ETF 目前價值近 1000 億美元。

For Ric Edelman, head of Edelman Financial Services, a group that provides training and instruction about investing in bitcoin to traditional finance professionals, even simply moving an investor’s funds allocation from no bitcoin to 1% would represent a sea change.

Edelman Financial Services（一個向傳統金融專業人士提供比特幣投資培訓和指導的組織）負責人Ric Edelman 認為，即使只是將投資者的資金分配從無比特幣調整到1%，也將代表著巨大的變化。

He said groups like pension boards will ultimately have a fiduciary duty to invest in bitcoin if there is a risk of missing out on massive run-ups in price like the one that has occurred this month.

他表示，如果有錯過本月發生的價格大幅上漲的風險，退休金委員會等團體最終將承擔投資比特幣的信託責任。

“The mantra is: ‘Get off zero,” Edelman said. “You can argue whether it should be 1% or 3% or 10%. But you’re having an increasingly difficult time justifying ‘zero.’”

「口頭禪是：『從零開始，』艾德曼說。 「你可以爭論應該是 1%、3% 還是 10%。但你越來越難以證明‘零’的合理性。

Looser, if more defined, cryptocurrency regulations are also likely to mean a proliferation of alternative cryptocurrencies, said JP Richardson, CEO of Exodus, a cryptocurrency wallet firm. It’s something that has already been occurring in anticipation of a Trump victory — and Trump himself has sought to cash in.

加密貨幣錢包公司 Exodus 的執行長 JP Richardson 表示，更寬鬆、更明確的加密貨幣監管也可能意味著替代加密貨幣的激增。這是在川普獲勝的預期中已經發生的事情——而川普本人也試圖從中獲利。

In the weeks preceding the election, Trump announced the launch of an online token called World Liberty Financial. Though it has provided official regulatory filings, they state that “World Liberty” is not a security and that, for now, the tokens are not actually available to U.S. persons.

在大選前幾週，川普宣布推出名為 World Liberty Financial 的線上代幣。儘管它提供了官方監管文件，但他們表示「World Liberty」不是一種證券，而且目前這些代幣實際上並不可供美國人使用。

The risks inherent to cryptocurrencies have not gone away as prices have surged. If anything, the risks will likely be exacerbated, at least in the short term

加密貨幣固有的風險並沒有隨著價格的飆升而消失。如果有的話，至少在短期內，風險可能會加劇